"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

• E139: America’s Tech Strategy w/ Qasar Younis, Sen. Jack Reed, and Josh Wolfe

  This week, we’re featuring a panel discussion from the 2025 Hill and Valley Forum with Josh Wolfe (Lux Capital), Senator Jack Reed (RI), and Qasar Younis, Founder and CEO, Applied Intuition They address talent attraction and retention, China's espionage and surveillance state, immigration policies, dual-use technologies, and the challenges and strategies in defense innovation and data security in AI and autonomous vehicles. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  —RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️‪The Hill & ValleyThe Hill & Valley podcast gives you an insider's look into tech and government, hearing from founders and operators of generational tech companies, elected representatives and policymakers, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley/id1692653857 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum  —SPONSORS:☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine  💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. —LINKS:The Hill & Valley Forum: https://www.thehillandvalleyforum.com/ The Hill & Valley Forum 2025 Agenda: https://x.com/zebulgar/status/1915128911274668364  —X / TWITTER:@SenJackReed@qasar@wolfejosh@turpentinemedia —HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Josh Wolfe interviews Qasar Younis (CEO of Applied Intuition) and Senator Jack Reed about dual-use technologies. Applied Intuition provides AI technology to moving machines with 18 of the top 20 global automakers using their systems. The company works in both commercial and defense sectors. Senator Reed notes adversaries like China can acquire equipment and repurpose it in novel ways. Qasar emphasizes building competitive products while remaining vigilant about adversaries who don't play by the same rules. Key policy levers include resources, human capital, academic partnerships, and faster deployment of innovations. Chinese espionage is a concern, but policies should address adversaries without discouraging overall immigration of talent. Qasar describes China's intense surveillance state that monitors all payments, movements, and activities. Senator Reed expresses concern about data accumulation without sufficient guardrails. Qasar argues for a middle ground between China's surveillance state and Europe's restrictive GDPR regulations. After visiting China, Qasar observed fewer foreigners than before and believes companies are leaving due to overwhelming surveillance. Qasar predicts in AI, like in mobile technology, value will be captured primarily by large players, both companies and countries. Autonomy is where "AI meets the warfighter" and the US is still lagging in adopting this technology. Increasing bureaucracy won't help the US compete; instead, having senior officials with AI experience will improve implementation.

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• E138: Palantir CEO Alex Karp & Rep. Ritchie Torres on Innovation & The West | Hill and Valley Forum 2024

  Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, and Congressman Richie Torres discuss higher education, Palantir's fearless culture, and the importance of contrarianism in driving innovation at the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️‪The Hill & Valley The Hill & Valley podcast gives you an insider's look into tech and government, hearing from founders and operators of generational tech companies, elected representatives and policymakers, and more.  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley/id1692653857 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: The Hill & Valley Forum: https://www.thehillandvalleyforum.com/  The Hill & Valley Forum 2025 Agenda: https://x.com/zebulgar/status/1915128911274668364  — X / TWITTER: @RitchieTorres @RepRitchie @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Alex Karp and Congressman Richie Torres discuss higher education, Palantir's culture, and contrarianism at the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum. Torres praises Karp for his fearlessness and moral clarity in a world of fear and moral confusion. Karp attributes his outspokenness to a desire for cultural clarity, which he believes is essential for building disruptive products and attracting top talent. Karp criticizes elite educational institutions for fostering dysfunction and antisemitism, viewing it as a betrayal of progressive values. He describes the crisis in higher education as a return to a "pagan religion" that contradicts the principles of liberalism and cognitive clarity. Karp emphasizes the importance of "non-playbook players" in the U.S., individuals who innovate without a set guide, a rare asset driving technological disruption. He acknowledges tensions between Capitol Hill and Silicon Valley but believes their relationship is structurally better than in most countries. Karp expresses confidence in the U.S. government's ability to adapt to rapid technological change, though it must improve procurement and focus on meritocracy. He highlights the U.S.'s unique advantage in producing innovative tech companies, citing meritocracy, top immigrants, and elite schools as key factors. In the U.S.-China tech arms race, Karp believes the U.S. is ahead but risks falling behind if elite institutions remain dysfunctional. He addresses fears about generative AI, advocating for embracing it as critical for GDP growth and competitive advantage, while acknowledging the need for regulation. Karp sees Palantir’s success as a model for creating a fairer, more equitable world and predicts the company will grow significantly in the next 20 years.

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• E137: AI Safety vs Speed: Helen Toner Discusses OpenAI Board Experience, Regulatory Approaches, and Military AI [The Cognitive Revolution]

  This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of The Cognitive Revolution. Nathan Labenz interviews Helen Toner, director at CSET, about her experiences with OpenAI, the concept of adaptation buffers for AI integration, and AI's role in military decision-making. They discuss the implications of AI development, the need for regulatory policies, and the geopolitical dynamics involving AI competition with China. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️ ‪The Cognitive Revolution The Cognitive Revolution is a podcast about AI where hosts Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg interview the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock over the next decades.  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk?si=7357ec31ac424043&nd=1&dlsi=060a53f1d7be47ad   Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431  — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Helen Toner's appearance on the TED AI show: https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_ai_show_what_really_went_down_at_openai_and_the_future_of_regulation_w_helen_toner  Helen Toner's substack : https://helentoner.substack.com/  Additional recommended reads: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/nonproliferation-is-the-wrong-approach  https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ai-for-military-decision-making/ https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-regulation-s-champions-can-seize-common-ground-or-be-swept-aside  https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/05/26/ai-firms-mustnt-govern-themselves-say-ex-members-of-openais-board — X / TWITTER: @hlntnr @labenz @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Helen Toner joined OpenAI's board in 2021, bringing AI policy expertise when AGI discussions were still uncommon. She confirms that rumors about QStar contributing to the board's decision to fire Sam Altman were completely false. Helen observes contradictions at OpenAI: safety-focused research papers alongside aggressive policy positions. For AI whistleblowers, she recommends clear disclosure standards rather than vague reporting guidelines. Helen introduced the concept of "adaptation buffers," noting that while frontier AI development gets more expensive, capabilities become cheaper to replicate once achieved. Rather than focusing on non-proliferation, Helen advocates using adaptation time to build societal resilience (like improving outbreak detection). She favors conditional slowdowns (based on risk mitigation) rather than arbitrary pauses or compute limits. For military AI applications, Helen's research identifies three key considerations: scope (how tightly bound the system is), data quality, and human-machine interaction design. Helen expresses skepticism about "AI war simulations," arguing military contexts have too many unknowns to be modeled like games. She suggests the shift in AI CEOs' rhetoric about China competition is "the path of least resistance" to argue against regulation. Helen acknowledges the difficulty of reaching stable international equilibrium around AI development with too many unknowns about what superintelligence would mean for political systems.

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• E136: Trump V2: Tariffs, American Dynamism, Higher Ed | Byrne Hobart

  In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs, OpenAI's recent innovations, and their implications for white collar work. They also explore the potential market shifts, the resilience of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the state of elite higher education institutions like Harvard in the current geopolitical climate. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future.  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Trump's tariff decision was spontaneous, causing market volatility and creating an incentive for China to negatively influence U.S. markets. Tariffs are inherently inflationary, functioning as a tax that results in higher consumer prices. Moving manufacturing away from China creates inefficiencies but provides strategic security by reducing dependency. The U.S. should focus on strategic manufacturing in areas like drones and rare earth processing. China has demographic disadvantages ("getting old before getting rich") that weaken its long-term position. OpenAI's memory feature creates user lock-in by personalizing responses based on user history. White-collar workers may face employment disruption similar to what blue-collar workers experienced with automation. The U.S. dollar's reserve currency status has a self-healing characteristic - crises often lead to increased dollar demand rather than abandonment.

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• E135: The Problem With Reserve Currencies and Switching to Crypto w/ Lyn Alden [From the Archives]

  This week on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg’s 2024 interview with Lyn Alden. Lyn discusses her book 'Broken Money', the impact of the global reserve currency, inflation, interest rates, and provides advice for navigating an uncertain economic future. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Broken Money: https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG8985FR  Lyn’s website: https://www.lynalden.com/ — X / TWITTER: @LynAldenContact @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Lyn explains her book "Broken Money" provides a comprehensive global view of the 160 different currencies and monetary systems worldwide. She argues all monetary systems are essentially "ledger money" rather than just commodity or credit money. Lyn emphasizes how technology permanently shapes monetary systems, a perspective underexplored in academia. The telegraph was a crucial turning point, allowing information to move at the speed of light and shifting power toward centralized banks. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies enable peer-to-peer value transfer without centralized institutions. Crypto continues to challenge currency monopolies by letting people circumvent capital controls and save in alternatives to local currencies. The US dollar's reserve status creates structural trade deficits and contributes to deindustrialization. Reshoring manufacturing remains difficult while maintaining reserve currency status. Raising interest rates to combat inflation has become less effective as higher rates increase government interest expenses. With high debt-to-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits drive money supply growth more than bank lending. Future inflation depends on technological growth rates relative to money supply growth. Lyn advises owning real, scarce assets rather than treasury bonds. She warns that fighting technological disruption ultimately proves ineffective for governments.

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