Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

• The Return of the Tax Man

  David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for a deep dive into the UK. The conversation takes a fiscal turn very quickly as the three dissect public finances and ponder the potential for tax rises in coming years. Trump tariffs add to the problem as the UK will not be able to rely on tailwinds  from the global economy. The possibility of meeting Labour’s manifesto pledge of achieving the fastest rate of growth in the G7 feels very low. David and Andrew think that income and corporate tax rises will be hard to avoid in coming years, and Gaurav immediately brings up the Beatles. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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• The Global Trade War Takes a Dark Turn

  This bonus episode is a recent webinar led by our Chief Economist, Mark Zandi. It includes many colleagues on the Moody’s Analytics economics team from around the world. The webinar reviews the many U.S. and global ramifications of the emerging U.S. tariff policy. This conversation features expert input from leading economists, including Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, Steve Cochrane, Gaurav Ganguly, Marisa DiNatale, Dante DeAntonio, Mark Hopkins, Alfredo Coutino, and Justin Begley. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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• Many Shades of Gray: Asia faces much uncertainty under shifting U.S. trade policy

  Steve and Stefan speak one-on-one about their expectations as trade negotiations ramp up between the U.S. and many of its Asia-Pacific trading partners. So far, however, the U.S. and China are not on speaking terms; Asian financial markets have stumbled, and currencies of Asia’s developing economies have depreciated against the dollar. There is much uncertainty about the near term, but Steve and Stefan express some optimism for the long-term resilience of the APAC economies. Click here to read more on the paper written by Katrina and Stefan Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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  1:04:44
• Tariffs, Deals and More EU Bazookas

  Against a rapidly evolving policy backdrop, Gaurav and the team attempt to unpack the implications of the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs on the European economy. Kamil sets out why the hit to euro zone growth from the initially announced tariffs could be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic. But regardless of the exact path of U.S. tariffs, the team agrees that the lasting impact on confidence and investment suggests recession risks have increased. The team also discuss how the EU could negotiate a deal to remove tariffs or retaliate with duties of its own, and why the EU may be wary of taking its Anti Coercion Instrument ‘bazooka’ out of the closet. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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  1:06:33
• First Thoughts on Liberation Day Tariffs

  The Moody’s Analytics team welcomed their colleague and fellow economist Sarah Tan to share their thoughts on the so-called Liberation Day tariffs only hours after they were announced. Tariffs are broader and more aggressive than anticipated, with Asia’s export-dependent economies in the firing line. Steve led with his usual optimism, but Katrina and Sarah persuaded that Beijing’s stimulus would be insufficient to insulate China from exports coming under siege. For related research on Tariffs and the Asia-Pacific economy, click the links belowAsia-Pacific Economies Brace for More Tariffs and More TroubleNavigating Trump TurbulenceAPAC Economic Outlook: Facing the Trade WindsChina Chartbook: Another Plan to Boost Consumption Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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