Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

With the U.K. continuing to confound expectations, Gaurav is joined by David and Andrew to assess a run of surprisingly resilient growth data and ask whether the economy is finally breaking out of its recent pattern of strong starts to the year followed by weak finishes. Consumer spending and business investment have both held up well, but rising energy prices, a soft labour market and slowing real wage growth still pose threats. The team debates the inflation outlook, whether markets have become too hawkish on Bank of England rate hikes, and whether another round of tax hikes is looming in October’s budget.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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The European economy refuses to cooperate with the pessimists. Despite conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices and persistent uncertainty, euro zone growth has remained surprisingly solid with consumers proving resilient despite another blow to their purchasing power. Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew and Kamil discuss if the good news is sustainable, what is driving the recovery in sentiment, and whether weakness in investment remains a concern. After another debate over Ireland’s outsized influence on the euro zone GDP figures, and how the U.K. fits into the picture, the conversation turns to inflation, rising interest rates and whether Europe risks being left behind as the AI boom gathers pace elsewhere.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gaurav, Stefan and Denise take the temperature of the Asia-Pacific economy, where the AI boom keeps powering ahead and Taiwan's exports have overtaken Japan's for the first time. The team digs into what's driving the region's K-shaped split, with chip-heavy economies like Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia posting growth north of 5% even as wages stay soft, consumers hold back, and other sectors languish. They ask whether the boom is genuinely productive or just papers over the cracks, drawing uneasy parallels with Dutch disease and tulip mania as fears of an AI bubble grow. From weak currencies, to the 'RAMpocalypse' memory shortage that makes everyday electronics pricier, to a jump in inflation, a fresh wave of rate hikes and the rising threat from climate shocks, they weigh whether Asia's growth is on solid ground or simply hides the strain beneath.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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In this episode of Global Economy Unwrapped, the GEU team tours the world, looking at risks. The global economy continues to hold up despite a number of large shocks and potential problems, so have markets become inured to geopolitical risk? The team discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, persistent trade tensions, cracks in the AI boom, rising yields, and the potential for monetary policy missteps. They conclude that the global economy looks surprisingly good, but the risks are far from trivial.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Europeans may be gloomy about the economy, but they're still packing their bags. In this episode of Meet the Experts, Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo are joined by Olia Kuranova and Jessica Demel to unpack the surprising resilience of European tourism. Why are holidays proving "non-negotiable" despite weak consumer confidence, inflation and geopolitical tensions? And how are heatwaves, wildfires and climate change beginning to reshape where, when and how Europeans travel? From revenge tourism to overtourism, and from beach holidays to climate adaptation, this episode explores the forces driving European tourism and the challenges that could redefine it.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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