Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Gaurav, Stefan and Denise take the temperature of the Asia-Pacific economy, where the AI boom keeps powering ahead and Taiwan's exports have overtaken Japan's for the first time. The team digs into what's driving the region's K-shaped split, with chip-heavy economies like Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia posting growth north of 5% even as wages stay soft, consumers hold back, and other sectors languish. They ask whether the boom is genuinely productive or just papers over the cracks, drawing uneasy parallels with Dutch disease and tulip mania as fears of an AI bubble grow. From weak currencies, to the 'RAMpocalypse' memory shortage that makes everyday electronics pricier, to a jump in inflation, a fresh wave of rate hikes and the rising threat from climate shocks, they weigh whether Asia's growth is on solid ground or simply hides the strain beneath.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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In this episode of Global Economy Unwrapped, the GEU team tours the world, looking at risks. The global economy continues to hold up despite a number of large shocks and potential problems, so have markets become inured to geopolitical risk? The team discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, persistent trade tensions, cracks in the AI boom, rising yields, and the potential for monetary policy missteps. They conclude that the global economy looks surprisingly good, but the risks are far from trivial.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Europeans may be gloomy about the economy, but they're still packing their bags. In this episode of Meet the Experts, Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo are joined by Olia Kuranova and Jessica Demel to unpack the surprising resilience of European tourism. Why are holidays proving "non-negotiable" despite weak consumer confidence, inflation and geopolitical tensions? And how are heatwaves, wildfires and climate change beginning to reshape where, when and how Europeans travel? From revenge tourism to overtourism, and from beach holidays to climate adaptation, this episode explores the forces driving European tourism and the challenges that could redefine it.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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How resilient is commercial real estate in a world of geopolitical shocks, shifting work patterns, and rapid advances in AI? Dominic Brown, Head of International Research at Cushman & Wakefield joins GEU for a wide-ranging discussion on the forces reshaping global property markets. From booming office demand in India and ultra-tight vacancy rates in Tokyo to the divergent fortunes of cities, sectors, and countries, the conversation explores why real estate has become more local, more granular, and more varied than ever. The episode also tackles AI's impact on office space, the race to build data centres, and whether automation will shrink workplaces or transform them. Along the way, Dominic explains how investors identify opportunities across global markets and why macroeconomics still matters, even in an increasingly fragmented world.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew take stock of the recent macroeconomic data for the euro zone. They talk about growth coming slightly above expectations, and why the data haven't really shown any impact from the Iran conflict. They conclude that while the exact number was a slight upside surprise relative to the forecast, it was in line with the broader macroeconomic narrative. They then turn to inflation, where data mostly came in line with expectations, but weather and energy markets are providing new headwinds. They conclude with a discussion of expectations for the European Central Bank and Bank of England for the rest of this year.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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