On Investing

In this episode, Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy Collin Martin reflect on the questions they’re hearing most from investors—dominated by geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, inflation, and growing anxiety about U.S. debt and deficits. They explain why concerns about a “tipping point” for Treasuries or the dollar have not shown up in historical data—and why demand for Treasuries remains resilient even as issuance grows.

The conversation turns to the Federal Reserve, including what to watch in upcoming congressional hearings for Kevin Warsh and how inflation pressures complicate calls for lower rates or a smaller Fed balance sheet. Liz Ann and Collin also revisit the 60-40 portfolio debate, arguing that shifting inflation dynamics and the end of the “Great Moderation” require more nuanced diversification than simple stock‑bond splits.

They close with a look at the Fed’s near‑term focus on inflation over employment, key data releases like core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and consumer sentiment, and why investors should be cautious about overreacting to headline payroll numbers that are often heavily revised.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. 

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions

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Earnings season kicks off with a mixed but generally constructive signal for markets, as Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine what corporate profits reveal about macroeconomic and market health. While equity investors tend to focus on near‑term earnings growth, Collin emphasizes that bond markets care more about long‑term cash flows and companies' ability to service debt. Aggregate corporate profits remain strong when viewed through broad measures like NIPA profits (National Income and Product Accounts), supporting investment, employment, and overall financial stability, even as borrowing costs drift higher due mainly to rising Treasury yields rather than widening credit spreads.

Beneath that positive backdrop, however, stresses are emerging in lower‑quality areas of the market. Collin highlights ongoing weakness among the riskiest high‑yield borrowers, where interest coverage ratios remain below sustainable levels, raising the risk of defaults if rates stay elevated. Liz Ann connects this theme to equity markets, noting a shift toward profitability and balance‑sheet strength, particularly a reversal in small‑cap performance, where profitable companies are now outperforming non‑profitable "zombie" companies. At the same time, earnings estimates have begun to deteriorate, with negative revisions concentrated in the near term and strength increasingly isolated to a small group of large-cap technology companies.

While markets appear to be betting on a resolution to the Iran conflict, risks remain tied to oil prices, inflation expectations, and consumer health, especially among lower‑income households.

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann discuss which key economic data to watch in the coming weeks.

You can read the article "Gambler's Blues: Betting Isn't Investing" on Schwab.com.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Small-cap stocks are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories. Small-Cap Company Risk. Small-cap companies may be more vulnerable to adverse business or economic events than larger, more established companies and their securities may be riskier than those issued by larger companies. The value of securities issued by small-cap companies may be based in substantial part on future expectations rather than current achievements and their prices may move sharply, especially during market upturns and downturns. In addition, small-cap companies may have limited financial resources, management experience, product lines and markets, and their securities may trade less frequently and in more limited volumes than the securities of larger companies. Further, small-cap companies may have less publicly available information and such information may be inaccurate or incomplete.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality (junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer's continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate this risk.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions

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In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin discuss recent market volatility, highlighting a sharp equity rally following news of a temporary ceasefire abroad. Liz Ann cautions that the dramatic, short‑term swings across asset classes reflect an increasingly “casino‑like” mentality in markets, where trading and speculation often blur with long‑term investing. 

Turning to fixed income, Collin reviews heightened volatility in Treasury yields and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. While markets have begun to price in the possibility of a rate cut later this year, Collin notes that Schwab’s outlook remains largely unchanged: The Fed is likely to stay on hold for some time, and long‑term Treasury yields may remain in a relatively stable range. He underscores that for long‑term investors, modest daily moves in yields should not drive portfolio decisions, reinforcing the role bonds play as part of a broader investment strategy rather than a tactical trade.

Then, Liz Ann is joined by Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, who offers a nuanced view of the U.S. labor market using high‑frequency payroll data. Richardson describes today’s labor market as solid but lacking dynamism, with job growth highly concentrated in health care due to aging demographics. She also explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping work—not by eliminating entire jobs, but by transforming individual tasks—often augmenting higher‑skill roles while automating simpler ones. 

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann discuss which key economic data to watch in the coming weeks.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. 

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

Diversification, asset allocation, and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Futures and futures options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please read the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options: https://www.schwab.com/Futures_RiskDisclosure prior to trading futures products.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications,0 and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. 

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate this risk.

Money market funds are neither insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of an investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions 

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin focus on the market and economic ripple effects stemming from the war in Iran—particularly through energy markets, inflation, interest rates, and investor sentiment.

Liz Ann and Collin begin by addressing a common misconception: that the U.S. being a net exporter of oil insulates the domestic economy from geopolitical energy shocks. Liz Ann explains that oil is priced globally, meaning higher global prices still feed directly into U.S. energy costs, inflation, and market volatility. 

Collin then turns to the bond market, explaining that while Treasury yields have risen, the magnitude of recent moves is modest by historical standards and consistent with Schwab’s outlook. He outlines three key forces keeping yields elevated: sticky inflation, rising fiscal deficits and debt issuance, and upward pressure from higher global yields. 

Liz Ann also explains what it means for markets to be “oversold,” emphasizing that technical indicators describe conditions—not timing signals—and that markets can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods depending on fundamentals.

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann discuss which key economic data to watch in the coming weeks.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. 

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors.

Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate this risk.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions

S&P 500® Index-Measures the performance of 500 leading publicly traded U.S. companies from a broad range of industries. It is a float-adjusted market-capitalization weighted index.

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In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin discuss the state of heightened market volatility driven by geopolitical risk in Iran. Elevated oil prices have introduced an “asymmetric” risk environment, where traders perceive more downside than upside in crude prices if the conflict de-escalates, contributing to sharp and rapid market swings. 

Collin highlights that bond markets, often considered the “boring” part of portfolios, have been anything but. Treasury yields have whipsawed dramatically in recent weeks, underscoring the importance of understanding duration risk. He explains how rising yields translate into price declines, particularly for longer-duration bonds, which can surprise investors unaccustomed to this level of volatility.

Then, Liz Ann welcomes a special guest to the show: Jim Clark, CEO of Boys & Girls Clubs of America. Liz Ann and Jim discuss the mission of the organization and the long-running Money Matters program, supported by Schwab, which has helped more than 1.2 million young people build essential money management skills since 2004. 

Jim explains how financial literacy has become more challenging—and more necessary—in a cashless, device-driven world where spending and debt feel less tangible. The program focuses on basics such as budgeting, saving, goal-setting, understanding credit, and distinguishing investing from gambling. Data from Boys & Girls Clubs shows that their alumni are more likely than their peers to be prepared for the workforce, employed full-time, and earning more than their parents—a rare outcome in today’s economy.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. 

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors.

Money market funds are neither insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of an investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund.

Futures and futures options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please read the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options prior to trading futures products.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.