Forward Guidance

• Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup

  This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy! — Follow Brent: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HpY5-OGzqa3t0tVz1a-2RnUXCI6BbZU5/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:28) Inflation Heating Up? (07:45) Brent's Macro Outlook (12:08) VanEck Ad (12:53) Should the Fed Cut? (16:01) Time for a Correction? (28:58) VanEck Ad (29:38) Dampening of Animal Spirits (33:29) Going Full Ponzi? (37:15) The Imperial Circle (41:31) Is the Dollar Milkshake Still Intact? (48:45) Gold & Gold Miners (51:13) Bifurcated Economy (55:29) AI Boom Bearing Fruit? (58:41) What Does Trump Really Want? (01:01:20) The Younger Generation Is Screwed (01:04:12) Stablecoins & the US Empire (01:07:06) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger

  In this episode, labor market economist Guy Berger breaks down how jobs data is collected, why revisions happen, and how to interpret them in context. He explains the roles of NFP, claims, and JOLTS data, the impact of immigration shifts on labor supply, and how business surveys can signal future hiring trends. Berger also digs into why the current conditions show stability with potential for both cooling and tightening ahead. Enjoy! __ Follow Guy: https://x.com/EconBerger Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (3:01) How Does BLS Gather Data? (6:27) Why Do We Have Revisions? (15:33) VanEck Ad (16:18) How to Think About the Data (20:42) Immigration Impact (29:10) VanEck Ad (29:50) Weekly Claims Data (40:08) JOLTS Data (45:54) The Beveridge Curve (53:49) Where is the Labor Market NOW? (56:20) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the wild shifts in September rate cut odds, President Trump's recent nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, and the meltdown in commercial real estate & public pensions. We also game out different tariff scenarios, the impact of the TGA rebuild, and the economy’s slow-moving trainwreck. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HjM04EXMKGsMRRzD1L_oaSqbYpGJT375/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:03) Market Whipsaw (03:10) Miran Fed Nomination (06:07) Where Are We Right Now? (10:19) CRE & Chicago Meltdown (16:50) VanEck Ad (17:35) Pension Crisis (22:17) Dependence on the Rich (26:29) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios (32:59) VanEck Ad (33:43) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios (36:52) Gold Demand & Bitcoin Reserve (40:28) TGA Rebuild (48:19) Negative Real Rates Incoming (50:14) Vanguard Bond Allocation (53:52) Our Slow-Moving Trainwreck (56:04) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan

  In this episode, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Andy Constan breaks down the three major macro levers shaping markets right now: a cautious Fed at a leadership crossroads, a Treasury issuing cold water via its QRA policy, and a fiscal impulse that looks contractionary once tariffs are factored in. He argues that while markets may be riding “run it hot” narratives, the data suggests we're already slowing. Enjoy! __ Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) Debating Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle (04:13) Institutional Adoption & Regulation (04:57) Are Four-Year Cycles Psychological? (08:37) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact (09:48) Ledger Ad (10:38) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact (17:00) Institutions Are Slow & Steady (18:58) Reflecting on Bitcoin's Scarcity (22:20) Crypto Regulation & Institutional Impact (23:38) Ledger Ad (24:25) Retail Investors & the Four-Year Cycle (25:45) Adapting to Bitcoin's Middle Ages (33:28) Can Blockchain Support Incoming Demand? (36:50) Sovereign Adoption & Strategic Reserves (38:28) OG Bitcoin HODLers Cashing Out (41:38) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? | Weekly Round-Up

  In this episode, we explore what’s next for markets after a week packed with major economic data. We break down the recent surge in market euphoria, discuss whether stagflation is taking hold, and examine the outlook for growth—plus much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london -- Treasury Companies: Market Data - https://blockworks.co/analytics/treasury-companies/market-data __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:56) Takeaways From Economic Data (08:51) AI Capex Is The Economy Now (11:09) VanEck Ad (11:53) AI Capex Is The Economy Now (17:46) Are We In Stagflation? (22:16) Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? (29:05) VanEck Ad (29:50) How To Navigate Stagflation? (38:12) Strategy’s Q2 Earnings __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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