Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones. Paul is the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and one of the greatest macro traders of all time, known for calling and profiting from the 1987 crash and compounding capital at extraordinary rates over more than four decades.

Paul is also one of the most entertaining and interesting people I have ever met. He is full of stories and hard-earned lessons from a lifetime in markets that feels like several lifetimes compressed into one.

In this conversation, he shares how he thinks about trading as a constant battle of risk management and patience, why he still wakes up in the middle of the night to watch global markets, and how he identifies the rare moments where he can take a truly big swing. We discuss whether we are in a bubble, why he sees AI as one of the greatest risks in history, and why he believes Bitcoin is the best inflation hedge.

We also spend time on the difference between trading and investing, the importance of passion and discipline, and the ideas that have shaped his life both inside and outside of markets.

Please enjoy this conversation with Paul Tudor Jones.

This conversation was recorded in mid-February 20, 26 weeks before the geopolitical conflicts now shaping the global economy. Please enjoy this great conversation with Paul Tudor Jones. 

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:29) Episode Intro: Paul Tudor Jones

(00:04:44) Paul’s Incredible Kindest Thing Story

(00:06:50) Discovering a Passion for Philanthropy

(00:13:12) Paul's Commencement Speech Address

(00:15:24) Trading v. Investing

(00:19:23) Lessons from Warren Buffet

(00:23:48) The AI Industry Lacks Proper Risk Management

(00:26:54) The One Regulation AI Needs

(00:28:51) What Paul Learned from Eli Tullis

(00:30:39) Why Trading is Like Boxing

(00:32:16) The Bull Case for the Yen

(00:34:30) Why Bitcoin is the Best Inflation Hedge

(00:36:06) Lessons from Historical Bubbles

(00:38:57) Are We in a Bubble?

(00:42:10) Paul's Daily Routine

(00:44:12) Managing Information Overload

(00:45:35) What Exquisite Execution Means

(00:46:37) Paul’s Love of Games

(00:48:13) The Secret to Longevity

(00:50:51) Starting Robin Hood After the 1987 Crash

(00:55:33) The Importance of Studying Journalism

(00:57:12) Communicating Effectively in Today's World

(00:59:13) The Four Components of a Great Life

(01:01:10) Paul’s Relationship with God and Nature

(01:03:53) Kill ‘Em With Kindness

This is my second conversation with Dylan Patel. Dylan is the founder and CEO of SemiAnalysis, where he tracks the semiconductor supply chain and AI infrastructure buildout.

This conversation is about the supply and demand of tokens. On demand, Dylan describes something completely explosive. He explains why the frontier model is the only model anyone wants, and willingness to pay for it is nearly unbounded. His own firm has gone from tens of thousands of dollars in AI spend last year to seven million this year.

On supply, we walk through the bottlenecks across memory, logic, and fab equipment that will determine how fast any of this can scale.

We also cover Claude Mythos and what the leading labs need to do to fix their growing public perception problem.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Visit ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

-----

WorkOS is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:29) Intro: Dylan Patel

(00:03:09) Semi Analysis AI Spend: Zero to $7M

(00:05:16) Real-World Examples of Claude Code

(00:11:41) Token Demand: “Completely Explosive”

(00:14:48) Why Everyone Wants the Frontier Model

(00:15:36) Mythos: Biggest Model Capability Jump in Two Years

(00:20:54) Fear of Rapid Model Progress

(00:23:45) Robotics as the Next Demand Wave

(00:26:03) Scaling Laws & Compute Efficiency

(00:27:24) OpenAI vs. Anthropic

(00:31:33) Supply Side: Bottlenecks Across the Stack

(00:33:26) TSMC CapEx Could Cause a Shortage

(00:36:45) CPUs, ASICs, and FPGAs

(00:40:12) Tokenomics

(00:42:20) Protests & AI Backlash

My guest today is Alex Karnal. Alex is the co-founder and managing partner of Braidwell, a life sciences investment firm he built after spending 15 years at Deerfield Management.

The frame we use throughout the episode is the health stack. Alex talks about how most of the diseases that will claim most of our lives are already addressable with medicines that exist today. We work through the five layers of what a defensive health strategy looks like, why GLP-1 medicines represent the first commercial proof that people are ready to be proactive about their health, and why PCSK9 inhibitors may ultimately be the more important drug class even though they get far less attention.

We also get into the science and business of drug discovery itself — why most of the published literature that AI companies are training on cannot be replicated, what it would mean to have a truly agentic scientific lab running 24 hours a day, and why Alex believes we are now on a deterministic curve toward scientific superintelligence in biology.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Visit ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

-----

⁠WorkOS⁠ is a developer platform that enables SaaS companies to quickly add enterprise features to their applications. Visit⁠⁠ ⁠WorkOS.com⁠⁠⁠ to transform your application into an enterprise-ready solution in minutes, not months.

-----

⁠Rogo⁠ is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best
(00:02:29) Intro: Alex Karnal
(00:03:15) State of the Union: GLP1s and Life Sciences
(00:07:01) The Health Stack Framework
(00:12:49) Breaking Down the 5 Defensive Layers
(00:21:18) GLP-1: What's Driving the Inflection
(00:28:28) Diet vs. Drugs: Is Food Enough?
(00:31:15) Barriers to Access: Complexity, Cost & Compliance
(00:35:04) PCSK9: The Closest Thing to a Free Lunch
(00:44:10) Alzheimer's & Neurodegenerative Disease
(00:46:59) Cancer: Early Detection & New Treatments
(00:54:49) Body Imaging & Diagnostic Trade-offs
(00:56:31) How Drugs Are Discovered
(01:02:39) AI in Drug Discovery
(01:10:57) The Automated Lab of the Future
(01:13:05) Peptides & Citizen Pharmacology
(01:16:45) Alex's Background
(01:28:25) Braidwell's Investment Approach
(01:30:39) The Kindest Thing

Scott Nolan spent 12 years at Founders Fund looking for the most important problems that no one else was funding. Then he found a problem so critical, and so ignored, that he couldn't find a company to back. So he started one.

General Matter is rebuilding US uranium enrichment. The United States was the world leader in enrichment through the 1980s and then stopped entirely. Today roughly a quarter of US enriched uranium comes from Russia, a ban on those imports takes full effect in 2028, and the advanced reactors everyone is counting on to power the next wave of data centers have no reliable domestic fuel source. Scott believes enrichment is the single bottleneck to a nuclear future, and that the window to solve it is narrow.

The conversation covers how Peter Thiel influenced him, why being in love with an idea is dangerous for investors but required for founders, and what it actually takes to rebuild an industrial capability the country let atrophy for 40 years.

Please enjoy my conversation with Scott Nolan.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Visit ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

-----

⁠WorkOS⁠ is a developer platform that enables SaaS companies to quickly add enterprise features to their applications. Visit⁠⁠ ⁠WorkOS.com⁠⁠⁠ to transform your application into an enterprise-ready solution in minutes, not months.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:45) Guest Intro: Scott Nolan

(00:03:36) SpaceX, Founders Fund & General Matter

(00:08:04) What Scott learned from Peter Thiel

(00:10:05) The "Avoid Trends" Concept

(00:10:55) Finding Important Problems No One Is Working On

(00:17:32) Gut v. Intuition

(00:18:49) Valuation, Competition & Capital Intensity

(00:20:20) Founders Fund Strategy

(00:21:06) The Steeper the Up Round, the Greater the Undervaluation

(00:21:41) Being in Love with the Problem

(00:26:07) Governments, Technology & History

(00:28:54) Lessons from SpaceX and Elon

(00:29:42) Vertical Integration

(00:33:07) The Role of Energy in Civilization

(00:37:36) State & Direction of US Energy

(00:38:58) Why Nuclear?

(00:42:20) Taxonomy of Advanced Reactors

(00:45:33) The BYOE Concept

(00:46:50) What Could Make Advanced Reactors Fail?

(00:48:04) General Matter: Product, Business & Company

(00:50:12) Enrichment & Weapons-Grade Uranium

(00:56:45) North Star Metric

(01:01:05) Building a Great Enduring Company

(01:04:01) How Scott Runs the Company

(01:06:11) Overcoming Irrational Fears About Nuclear

(01:08:25) Why Aren't There More Founders Funds?

(01:10:03) Operating vs. Investing

(01:11:56) Kindest Thing

My guest today is Alan Waxman, co-founder and CEO of Sixth Street, a $130B global investment firm.

Private credit is one of the most discussed topics in markets right now, and there is a lot to make sense of. The current discourse is almost entirely focused on symptoms. Alan Waxman has spent the time diagnosing the root cause.

Alan thinks about the financial system the way a historian would, studying the incentives, guardrails, and market structure that determine how things play out.

In this conversation, he traces the evolution of American finance from the 1929 crash through Glass-Steagall, the GFC, and Basel III to explain how we arrived at what he calls the factory model, the industrialization of liability-gathering and asset deployment that he believes is the root cause of everything happening in private markets today.

This is my second conversation with Alan, our first one is one of my favorites from last year. 

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Vanta. Trusted by thousands of businesses, Vanta continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Visit vanta.com/invest. 

-----

This episode is brought to you by ⁠WorkOS⁠. WorkOS is a developer platform that enables SaaS companies to quickly add enterprise features to their applications. Visit ⁠WorkOS.com⁠ to transform your application into an enterprise-ready solution in minutes, not months.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:43) Intro: Alan Waxman

(00:04:35) Financial System Guardrails & Incentives

(00:05:56) System 1: Pre-1933 to 1999

(00:07:39) Glass-Steagall Legislation

(00:10:46) Deregulation & Rise of System 2

(00:12:27) Leverage, GFC, and System 2's Collapse

(00:14:25) Basel III, Dodd-Frank, and System 3

(00:15:32) Why System 3 Could Be the Best Ever

(00:19:04) Behavioral Shifts Starting in 2018

(00:19:52) The Factory Model

(00:24:33) Acceleration of Factory Model

(00:28:25) FRE Multiples and GP Incentives

(00:34:59) Wealth Channel & Asset-Liability Mismatches

(00:36:15) Why This Won’t be the Next GFC

(00:45:31) AI, Creative Destruction & Opportunity 

(00:49:35) Alan’s One-Sheet Brain System

(00:55:01) Lessons by Decade: Hui

(00:59:28) Face the Tiger