Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast, we discuss:
AI Hardware Demand & Regional Supply Chains
Taiwan's Real GDP Expansion vs. Korea's Terms-of-Trade Shock
Taiwan's Negative Real Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook
East Asia's Resilience to Global Energy Shocks
Bank of Korea Policy Hikes & Won FX Dynamics
Japan's Fiscal Revenue Boom & Manufacturing Catch-Up
BOJ Policy Path, Persistent Inflation, and Yen Weakness
China's Property Slump & Incremental Credit Easing
China's Auto Export Surge & Sovereign Tech Stack
Sovereign Balance Sheet Divergence & CGB Market Dynamics

Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts. In this podcast, we discuss: 

Official Data Lags & Declining Survey Response Rates
1,000+ Alternative Data Pipelines for Macro State Mapping
Real-Time Worker Bargaining Power vs. Lagged Wage Metrics
Multimodal AI: CNNs, BERT, and Targeted LLM Workflows
Nowcasting Lead: Gaining 2–3 Months Ahead of Official Prints
Next-Generation Nowcasting vs. Atlanta Fed GDP Models
Why the 2023 Yield Curve Recession Signal Failed
Current US Economic State & The "K-Shaped" Consumer
Portfolio Integration for Fundamental & Systematic Investors

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss:
The Tripolar World & Spending Super Cycle
US Valuation "Haircut" vs. Non-US Bargains
Reframing Bearish Narratives & High Nominal Growth
European Plays: Financial Consolidation, Spain, and Poland
Emerging Markets, China's Tech/Biotech, and Brazil Rate Cuts
Energy Security, Clean Energy Adoption, and Battery Plays
US Midterm Outlook & Policy Incoherence
Year-End "Face Ripper" Rally & Answering AI ROI

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: 

$100 Brent and Historic Backwardation
The Global Refined Product Crisis
Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs
The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat
Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans
China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release
China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout
US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks
India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals
US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads
Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include:
Machines Speaking Human
The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework
Gold-Standard Human Evaluation
Converting Prompts to "Skills"
Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops
Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents
Reliable Market Analysis via RAG