The Synopsis

In this incredible interview I spoke with legendary investor Bill Nygren, who has beaten the market over a 25 year period by around 200bps. This is an extremely hard and rare feat. In our wide-spanning conversation Bill tells us about everything from his investment process and valuation framework to how to value a cyclical business, the importance of management, investing lessons from Netflix & Meta, as well as what a lot of value investors get wrong. We even had time to talk about his Salesforce and Airbnb postions a bit. We hope you enjoy!  
You can find a video version of this podcast on YouTube here
 
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Show Notes
(0:51)  — Bill Nygren's Investment Philosophy
(4:15)  — Valuation Timeframe
(9:22)  — Is There a Thing as Fair Value?
(12:19)  — Investing in Banks
(17:30)  — Why Haven't We Had a Normal Recession?
(18:43)  — How to Value a Cyclical Business?
(23:24)  — How Confident Can You Be on Your Downside?
(24:36)  — Does the Quality of Management Matter?
(26:28)  — How Important is ROIC?
(28:34)  — Should an Investor Buy & Hold Forever?
(39:21)  — The Role of Talking to Management in Your Investment Process
(41:54)  — Research Process
(44:54)  — How to Gain Confidence in Your Research
(49:08)  — Investing Lessons From Meta & Netflix
(1:03:48)  — Portfolio Analyst Relationship
(1:06:38)  — Portfolio Diversification
(1:10:06)  — Salesforce and the AI Risks
(1:13:64)  — What to Do About Deferred Revenue in Software Stocks
(1:17:26)  — Why Bill Owns Airbnb Over Booking Holdings

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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this fantastic interview we spoke with the CEO of Shift4, Taylor Lauber, and CFO, Christopher Cruz. We covered everything from what sets Shift4 apart from competition to capital allocation and their latest acquistion of Global Blue. 
You can find our Shift4 Research report here.
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If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected] 
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Show Notes
(0:00)  — Shift4 Business Overview
(1:14)  — Where Shift4 Fits in the Payment Value Chain
(3:17)  — How Shift4 Differentiates Itself
(7:12)  — Competitive Dynamics
(8:46)  — Toast vs Shift4
(14:26)  — ROIC and Capital Allocation
(24:46)  — The Role of Gateway and Global Blue
(36:34)  — Global Blue Competitive Dynamics
(44:06)  — Organic Growth vs M&A
(59:39)  — 2027 Free Cash Flow Target Still on the Table?
(1:04:22)  —  Can Shift4 be Recreated?

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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this exceptional interview, we talk to Cofounder of Square (Block) Jim McKelvey on competing against Amazon. From his time at Square, he saw how they were able to outcompete Amazon and he wasn't sure how that was possible given their superior resources, merchant network, and large base of talented employees. After better understanding how that was possible, he wrote a book on his insights called "The Innovation Stack". In this interview we touch on some of his key learnings, as well as talk about why it is so hard to copy some businesses.
**Purchase Jim's Book, The Innovation Stack, Here
AlphaSense has a repository of over 200k expert call transcripts that are similar to this conversation. Sign-up for access here.
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Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected] 
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Show Notes
(0:00) —  Amazon vs Square
(13:22) — Why Amazon Quit Against Square
(24:58) — Southwest
(37:33) — Copying a Companies Innovation Stack
(40:53) — Advice to Build a Business


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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discuessed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss Netflix stepping away from Warner Bros., Duolingo and underlying growth issues, plus Paypal and what makes a great manager. 
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YouTube Video Links: Paypal, Netflix, Duolingo
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Show Notes
(0:00)  — Intro, Netflix/Paramount Warner Bros. Deal
(17:17)  — Duolingo Selloff
(30:08)  — Duolingo Valuation
(36:20)  — PayPal Overview
(42:48)  — What Makes a Good Manager?
(52:41)  — PayPal Valuation
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss the recent fears in SaaS with the looming AI risk and dig deeper into ServiceNow! 
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Watch the ServiceNow Video here, or the Constellation Software Video Here, the Adobe Video Here. 
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Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Show Notes
(0:00)  — Intro
(3:48)  — ServiceNow Business Overview
(13:00)  — Risks to ServiceNow
(21:32)  — AI Control Tower
(24:14)  — Competitive Dynamics
(32:10)  — Valuation
(35:18)  — Mature Margin Diatribe
(42:39)  — AI Risk Rebuttal
(46:16)  — ServiceNow Blue Sky Scenario
(47:38)  —  Intuit Disrupted?
(50:46)  — Will Margins Collapse for SaaS?
(52:54)  — Difference Between SMB vs Enterprise SaaS
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For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
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Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/