Morning Brief

Stocks are rebounding after another AI-driven sell-off, with housing starts and durable goods topping estimates despite December declines. Still, US equities are off to their worst relative start since 1995, as investors await the GDP report and reassess positioning.

The S&P 500’s premium has widened to roughly 40% over global peers, prompting debate over allocations. International markets are up about 8% year to date, while the US is flat, driven mainly by multiple expansion rather than earnings.

Japan will deploy $36B into US energy and critical minerals, part of a broader $550B framework, backing a major Ohio gas project tied to data center demand.

Trending: Moderna jumps on FDA reversal of flu review; New York Times gains after Berkshire stake; Palo Alto Networks falls on lowered profit outlook.

Takeaways:


US underperforms global markets on valuation gap


International gains driven by multiples, not earnings


Japan invests $36B into US energy build-out


AI volatility pressures software and cybersecurity

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Futures are lower after the holiday break, with Nasdaq 100 futures off about 0.7% as investors digest last week’s worst stretch since November. The AI transition remains the central driver, with traders watching earnings commentary and capital expenditures discipline for clarity.

Software stocks have reset sharply, with Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), and Palantir (PLTR) pulling back from elevated multiples. Investors are recalibrating around return on AI spend and which companies can embed AI into core revenue streams rather than chase hype.

Banking executives argue that AI will enhance productivity rather than replace entire sectors, but questions remain about the speed of disruption and regulatory lag. In IPOs, discipline is returning, with valuations and pricing scrutiny shaping 2026’s expected rebound.

Trending tickers: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) reopens Paramount talks, Tripadvisor (TRIP) faces activist pressure, and Masimo (MASI) surges on a Danaher deal.

Takeaways:

• Nasdaq futures lead declines as AI volatility continues• Software multiples compress amid ROI scrutiny• AI seen as a productivity boost, not a complete replacement• IPO market favors pricing discipline over momentum• M&A and activism drive single-stock moves

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US stocks are mixed premarket after a solid jobs report and a stronger earnings season. Investors are weighing resilient growth against fewer Fed rate cuts. Value is outperforming growth early in the year as traders reassess positioning.

Software names like Salesforce (CRM), Workday (WDAY), and ServiceNow (NOW) are sliding, even as some argue the sell-off looks overdone. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) remains central to the AI trade, with expectations building into earnings.

Consumer staples are rotating higher, but McDonald's (MCD) is leaning on value menus to drive traffic while watching GLP-1 risk. In crypto, Robinhood (HOOD) and bitcoin face a catalyst vacuum amid investor debate over regulation and tokenization.

Trending Tickers: AB InBev (BUD) on steady profit growth; McDonald's (MCD) on value momentum; Nvidia (NVDA) into earnings.

Takeaways:


Retail is buying beaten-down software, institutions stay selective


Value and cyclicals are leading as growth lags


AI leaders remain core despite volatility


McDonald's sees value as a defense against consumer pressure


Bitcoin lacks a clear near-term catalyst

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Stock futures are higher after January payrolls rose 130,000 versus 65,000 expected, with unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. Dow futures are up 250 points as investors digest stronger labor data and push Fed rate cut odds to July. The key question now: does a resilient economy delay easing?

AI remains the market’s action verb. Investors are rotating within tech and services, reassessing middleman risk while favoring companies with strong balance sheets and positive momentum. Speculative names look mispriced after aggressive bids.

M&A and deregulation optimism could fuel a second-half melt-up. Credit markets remain open, and strategists see broader participation beyond last year’s narrow leadership.

Trending tickers: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) hovers near competing bids from Paramount and Netflix; Kraft Heinz (KHC) drops after pausing its planned split; Moderna (MRNA) slides after the FDA declines to review its flu vaccine filing; Robinhood (HOOD) slips as crypto revenue misses despite broader product expansion.

Takeaways:


Strong jobs data lifts futures, delays rate cut expectations


AI-driven rotation favors quality over speculation


Broader market leadership emerging in 2026


M&A and deregulation seen as second-half catalysts


Earnings and deal headlines driving single-stock volatility

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US futures are mixed near record levels as investors weigh soft December retail sales against resilient earnings and rotation away from software. Attention turns to labor and inflation data for clarity on rates and growth.

Rotation is doing the work. Energy and industrials lead as AI demand boosts power and infrastructure, while uncertainty around long-term earnings keeps software volatile. Investors want a clearer terminal value before re-rating AI platforms.

The consumer picture is uneven. Retail sales were flat in December, with broad category weakness, reinforcing a K-shaped split in which higher-income spending holds up while value-seeking intensifies elsewhere.

Trending tickers: Spotify surged on stronger user growth; Paramount fell amid deal uncertainty; Harley‑Davidson slid after a shipment miss.

Takeaways:• Rotation supports the index without a tech surge• Software needs earnings visibility to stabilize• Retail data signals consumer strain• Luxury demand outpaces mass market• Selectivity matters in AI trades

Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves.

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