Moving Markets

Markets rallied strongly yesterday as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran lifted risk sentiment, with European equities reaching fresh record highs and US indices surging across the board. Optimism was driven by a framework agreement pointing towards a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although uncertainty remains around the timeline and terms. Oil prices fell sharply, while gold moved higher amid softer rate expectations and a weaker dollar. Overnight, central banks remained in focus, with the Bank of Japan delivering its first rate hike since 1995, while weak macro data out of China reinforced concerns about slowing domestic demand. Today, we were joined by Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research, who unpacked the intensifying price war among leading AI model providers.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:34) - Token pricing war: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research

(12:08) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Yesterday, the US and Iran agreed to the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The deal is set to be signed on Friday and still allows for a 60-day window to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program. Evidently some details are still to be ironed out, but equity and bond markets have reacted positively, with Asia trading higher this morning and futures pointing to a higher opening globally today. Added to this, the price of oil has already dropped more than 4% and gold has climbed 3%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his thoughts on where these assets might trade from here, as well as sharing his view on semiconductor stocks. 

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(01:09) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(07:18) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(09:22) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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As global markets adjust to a world where capital is no longer abundant, investors face new challenges and opportunities. How should they adapt their portfolios, and what are the most compelling prospects for the second half of 2026?
 
Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, join Bernadette Anderko to discuss Julius Baer’s mid-year market outlook. The conversation dissects the shift from a savings glut to a savings grab, and focuses on why selectivity and capital discipline are paramount. Mark and Christian explain the outlook for equities and fixed income, investigating not just sectors but also regions of interest, together with the case for investment grade and emerging market debt, and the ongoing impact of AI and clean energy themes. They also review the prospects for commodities, gold, and currencies as investors position themselves for the remainder of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction and agenda

(00:55) - From a ‘savings glut’ to a ‘savings grab’

(02:16) - Be selective amidst capital expenditure opportunities

(03:03) - Bond yields, duration, and global opportunities

(05:33) - Credit quality and emerging market debt

(06:49) - US vs. non-US markets

(08:07) - European equity dynamics

(08:59) - AI, Asia, and regional drivers

(10:14) - Cloud computing, AI, clean energy

(11:24) - Commodities: Super shock vs. super cycle

(12:53) - Gold outlook

(14:04) - US dollar, yen, and commodity currencies

(15:08) - Key takeaways, closing remarks and legal information

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President Trump halted strikes on Iran yesterday and announced that a peace deal will be signed imminently. Markets reacted accordingly, with oil prices falling and equities rallying. Chip stocks contributed to the rally in both the US and Asia overnight. Even US Treasuries held on to their gains, as markets lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from 51% to 36%. SpaceX raised USD 75 billion, pricing itsshares at USD 135 – its debut will be a big focus later today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Sales in Geneva, joined today’s podcast for his weekly take on all things currency and precious metals, so tune in to hear his views on the US dollar, the euro and the Swiss franc, as well as his perspective on the sharp fall in the gold price.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:07) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(10:40) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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While European markets proved more resilient, US equities declined amid renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh inflation data highlighting mounting pressure on US household budgets, driven in part by higher energy costs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his outlook on gold and silver in this environment. We also hear from Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who previews the European Central Bank’s upcoming rate decision and discusses the implications for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:16) - Update on gold: Carsten Menke. Head of Next Generation Research, Product & Investment Content

(09:42) - ECB expectations & investment impact: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(12:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.