The Jay Martin Show

In the next 90 days, the price of your iPhone is going up. So is your car. So is the wiring in your walls.

Not because of inflation.

Not because of tariffs.

Because a war 7,000 miles away is breaking the system that builds everything.

This isn’t an oil story.

It’s a supply chain story.

Sulfur stops moving.

Chemicals get rationed.

Copper and cobalt production slows.

And suddenly, the cost of building the modern world starts rising.

Most people think the U.S. is protected because it has energy.

That’s the wrong model.

A modern economy doesn’t run on oil alone. It runs on thousands of inputs—most of which it doesn’t produce anymore.

Break one link, and the whole system tightens.

That’s what you’re watching happen now.

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Sources & Attributions

Social Media (Editorial / Commentary Use)

https://www.linkedin.com/in/merlenye

https://x.com/joshuafarahzad

https://x.com/MerleNye

News / Context

United Nations News (Strait of Hormuz disruption reporting)

Public Domain Footage

U.S. Department of Defense via DVIDS

https://www.dvidshub.net/video/997733/us-forces-launch-operation-epic-fury

https://www.dvidshub.net/video/998719/operation-epic-fury-we-control-skies

Stock Media

Adobe Stock

Alamy

Music

Artlist (Licensed)

https://artlist.io

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Disclaimer

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

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Chapters

0:00 Prices are about to move

1:11 Why Hormuz actually matters

3:34 The system most people don’t see

5:09 Chemicals to metals to everything

7:03 The cascade

8:07 The energy myth

13:51 A different industrial model

17:02 Proto Town

19:22 Hard assets vs markets

20:34 The shift to scarcity

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Jay gives a breakdown of a conflict most people are only half watching. On the surface, it’s a military confrontation in the Middle East. But underneath, a second war is unfolding in bond markets and currency flows and that may carry far greater consequences. As energy supply chains fracture and the Strait of Hormuz closes, the ripple effects move fast: through oil, into global pricing, and straight into sovereign debt markets. The result is a feedback loop that puts the U.S. in a position with no clean exit.

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00:00 – The Two Wars: Military vs Financial

02:13 – The Hidden War in Bond Markets

05:50 – How U.S. Debt Actually Works

07:15 – Why Countries Are Selling Treasuries

09:58 – Rising Yields & System Pressure

11:23 – The Debt Spiral

13:46 – Energy Shock → Global Recession Risk

15:55 – The Petro-Yuan Threat

17:04 – What Would Actually Stabilize This

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Jay sits down with Peter Alexander, founder and managing director of Z-Ben Advisors, for a wide-ranging conversation on China’s real position in the global economy. Peter has lived in Shanghai for nearly 30 years, and brings his unique perspective from inside the country on many topics including: China’s political system, manufacturing dominance, Belt and Road strategy and gold. They also discuss why Western narratives on China often miss the deeper story, how China is building long-term leverage, and what this means for investors watching the next phase of U.S.-China competition.

Peter's Links:

https://z-ben.com/

https://substack.com/@plalexander

How Did We Get Here?

Deconstructing the 30-year path of Chinese and American rivalry and its consequential, adverse effects on the International Rules-Based Order

https://z-ben.com/edm/Public/file/Z-Ben%20Advisors%20-%20How%20Did%20We%20Get%20Here%20-%20January%202026.pdf

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0:00 Introduction

2:50 Peter Alexander’s View From Inside China

4:03 Is China Communist, Capitalist, or Something Else?

10:01 Xi Jinping’s 2012 Inflection Point

18:45 China’s Property Boom, Ghost Cities, and Quality Growth

22:13 Demographics, Robotics, and the Future of Chinese Labor

29:55 BYD, Tesla, and the “Catfish Effect”

37:31 Why Reshoring China’s Supply Chain Is So Difficult

38:43 China’s Manufacturing Moats: Energy and Distribution

45:37 The Real Purpose of Belt and Road

53:48 Dollarization, CIPS, and China’s Gold Strategy

1:02:41 How the Shanghai Gold Exchange Works

1:05:03 The U.S. Dollar, Treasuries, and Empire Risk

1:12:42 Swap Lines, Liquidity, and Treasury Market Pressure

1:18:17 Strait of Hormuz and China’s Energy Position

1:27:01 Japan, Energy Security, and Regional Pressure

1:28:44 Is U.S.-China Conflict Inevitable?

1:36:17 Taiwan, Decoupling, and the Limits of War

1:43:00 Where China’s Growth Is Happening Now

1:44:01 China’s Infrastructure, EVs, and State Capitalism

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Peter Zeihan joins Jay to break down the escalating conflict in the Middle East with major implications for Iran’s nuclear trajectory, global energy markets, and the future of American power. The discussion explores the rise of drone warfare as a transformative force, the fragility of Gulf economies, and why disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a cascading energy and economic crisis across Europe and Asia.

Check out Peter's work:

https://x.com/PeterZeihan

https://linktr.ee/zeihanongeopolitics

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00:00 – Intro

00:40 – What Is U.S. Strategy in the Middle East?

01:07 – Decision-Making Inside the Trump Administration

03:06 – The Breakdown of Policy Consistency

05:18 – Who Really Drives War Decisions?

07:38 – Iran’s Nuclear Strategy Explained

10:28 – Why Strikes Didn’t Stop Iran’s Program

12:06 – Iran’s Power Structure & the IRGC

16:17 – How Iran Profits From the Conflict

20:24 – The Drone Warfare Revolution

24:17 – Why the U.S. Is Falling Behind in Drone Defense

25:24 – Trump’s Potential Withdrawal & Strategic Risks

26:31 – Is This America’s “Suez Moment”?

28:38 – The Collapse of U.S. Global Influence

32:15 – Political Constraints and Power in Washington

34:33 – Globalization Is Breaking—But in the Worst Way

36:56 – Why Gulf Economies Are Unsustainable in War

41:54 – The Coming Global Energy Shock

47:14 – Why China Faces a Critical Energy Crisis

49:35 – Can Any Country Actually Intervene?

51:19 – Are We at a Systemic Breaking Point?

52:04 – Why Oil Supply Won’t Recover for Years

56:04 – Financial Fallout and Global Capital Flows

58:17 – The Future of the U.S. Dollar and Global Power

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In this macro discussion, Jay sits down with Grant Williams and Luke Gromen to unpack the real implications of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The conversation explores the gap between official narratives and on-the-ground realities, the fragility of supply chains, and the risk of cascading financial stress across global markets. They also examine historical parallels like the Suez Crisis and what all of this could mean for the future of the U.S. dollar and global monetary order.

Luke Gromen:

https://x.com/LukeGromen

https://fftt-llc.com/

Grant Williams:

https://x.com/ttmygh

https://www.grant-williams.com/

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00:00 – Intro

03:37 – The Core Thesis: Everything Hinges on Hormuz

05:43 – Military Power vs Reality: Why It Hasn’t Been Reopened

08:01 – Propaganda, Fog of War & Information Breakdown

10:40 – Investor Strategy: Trade It or Stay Out

12:15 – Who Wins & Who Loses in This Conflict

18:55 – Russia, China & the Expanding Conflict

23:30 – Why This Could Escalate

27:02 – Global Fragility: Food, Energy & Population Risk

33:14 – How a Global Economic Collapse Could Cascade

39:24 – Bond Market Signals & Policy Limitations

41:34 – Correlation Breakdown: Why 60/40 Fails Here

43:08 – The Suez Crisis Parallel Explained

47:40 – A Potential “Suez Moment” for the U.S.

51:26 – Shift in Warfare: Missiles, Drones vs Naval Power

57:39 – What Replaces the Dollar?

1:00:30 – Petro-Yuan, Gold Settlement & New Trade Systems

1:09:12 - Is This Gold Bull Run Durable?

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