Bloomberg Businessweek

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US economic activity continued to increase at a slight-to-modest pace across most regions as the war with Iran generated a new wave of uncertainty and higher energy costs, the Federal Reserve said.

Price growth remained moderate overall, but energy and fuel costs rose sharply in all 12 Fed districts, the central bank reported in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts released Wednesday.

“The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture,” the Fed said.
The report featured information compiled by the New York Fed and collected through April 6, capturing the early effects of the war on the US economy.The report also noted that price pressures were bleeding beyond energy.

“Energy and fuel costs rose sharply in all districts, attributed to the Middle East conflict, leading to higher freight and shipping costs and higher prices for plastics, fertilizers and other petroleum-based products,” the Fed said. “Input cost pressures beyond energy-related increases were also widespread.”

The oil shock spurred by the conflict has sent gasoline prices in the US to their highest level since 2022, leading US inflation to jump in March. Several Fed policymakers have signaled a preference to keep borrowing costs steady for quite some time while they evaluate the economic data. Officials are expected to leave their benchmark rate unchanged when they meet on April 28-29, according to pricing in futures contracts.

Today's show features:
Michael McKee, Bloomberg TV and Radio International Economics & Policy Correspondent on Fed's Beige Book
Nicola Willis, New Zealand Finance Minister, on how inflation will go 'much higher' if Iran war drags on
John Roberts, analyst at Mizuho, on the global chemicals market
Jennifer Rie, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Antitrust Litigation Analyst on Live Nation Illegally monopolized ticketing market.
Michael Ha, Baird Senior Research Analyst and Avalon Pernell, Bloomberg News Equities Reporter on UnitedHealth’s Last Bear Stands Pat After Medicare Rate Hike
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As credit card companies with lofty fees compete for affluent consumers, the hottest new perks are wearable devices for tracking health, fitness and sleep. After lifting annual dues for their top-tier cards, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and American Express Co. rolled out typical benefits like hotel, dining and travel credits. But there were also more unexpected bonuses: American Express added a $200 credit toward an Oura Health Oy smart ring to the Platinum Card, while Chase included a $359 rebate for Whoop Inc.’s fitness bands for Sapphire Reserve holders. The promotions are generating results, pushing users to sign up for the latest credit cards and join the wearables craze for the first time.

Cam Baker, Bloomberg News Breaking News Editor discusses with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.
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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.

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Bank results so far show that private credit woes remain contained, with executives offering words of calm for nervous investors.

First, there are no big red flags in the aggregate credit loss provisions from the four big banks that have reported so far, including Wells Fargo. The measure, where stress typically starts to show, is tracking higher for some lenders -- for instance, Goldman attributed the increase to “growth and impairments related to wholesale loans,” yet the overall number remains very modest compared to peers.

Citi’s worse-than-expected provisions were tied to US consumer card losses and a firmwide reserves build amid the uncertain macro environment, but its measure is only the highest since 2Q 2025. That has also been offset by JPMorgan’s lower-than-estimated provisions.
Taken altogether, the combined bad debt forecast tally is so far smaller than feared for the quarter and more modest than it was during the same period last year.

Banks went further to disclose at least $100 billion of specific exposure to private-credit firms, with Citi saying that it’s had zero losses over the life of the portfolio. Its executives noted on the call that the bank has strong protections in place, including a prudent approach to reserves, which it continues to constantly stress test.

For his part, JPMorgan CEO Dimon said he’s “not particularly worried” about private credit after the bank disclosed a $50 billion exposure. Goldman CEO David Solomon also defended the industry on Monday.

The remarks and moderate credit provisions so far should give investors some comfort that strains from private credit remain limited so far -- something that other parts of the credit market have been signaling as well.

Today's show features:
Herman Chan, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, US Banks & Joe Hegener, Asterozoa Capital CIO & Founder on Bank Earnings
Alli McCartney, Alignment Partners at UBS Managing Director of Wealth Management on latest market reaction
Adam Farrar Bloomberg Economics Senior Geoeconomics Analyst for Asia-Pacific on US's Blockade on Iran
Sid Philip, Bloomberg News Chief Correspondent for Global Aviation on United CEO Pitched Trump on Possible Tie-Up with American Airlines
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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
CraftCo CEO Ali Anderson joins Tim Stenovec and Emily Graffeo to discuss her brands diverse portfolio of innovative craft spirits including celebrating a big anniversary for its Magnus Cigar Blend whiskey.
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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
President Donald Trump said Iran reached out to his administration over peace negotiations, as the US began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the war’s seventh week.Even as Trump sought to jawbone negotiations back on track, there were few signs that was taking place after weekend negotiations failed in Islamabad. Iran blamed the collapse of talks on the US and Tehran has not confirmed further discussions on Monday.
“We’ve been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal,” Trump said at the White House, without elaborating on who participated in the conversation.
Trump spoke hours after the US moved to cut off vessels from transiting the vital waterway to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas, which could further inflame tensions amid the global energy crisis.
The US president once again claimed that negotiations had failed due to Iran’s insistence on maintaining a nuclear program. Trump said he was “sure” Iran will eventually agree to abandon nuclear ambitions, and reiterated there would be no deal without that concession.
This episode features:
Michelle Jamrisko, Bloomberg News White House & National Security Editor
Marc Champion, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist on Hormuz Blockade Is a Throwdown the US Can't Win: Marc Champion
Michael Ventura, Co-Head of US Equity Capital Markets at RBC on Wave of $15 Billion US IPOs Runs Headlong Into War’s New Phase
Jamil Jaffer, National Security Institute Founder & Executive Director
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