FICC Focus

Supply shocks, inflation risks and AI are reshaping the investment landscape, a theme that Lazard’s Chief Investment Officer Eric Van Nostrand discusses with Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Van Nostrand explains why macro matters more to markets now than it did for much of the past two decades, and why investors need to focus more on supply dynamics than traditional demand management. The two examine the inflationary consequences of the conflict in Iran, why Van Nostrand believes the market is underestimating the risk of persistently higher oil prices, and how those pressures complicate the outlook for the Federal Reserve under Chairman Kevin Warsh. 

They also discuss how fiscal and local policy affect long-term supply growth, why European equities look more attractive than they have in years, and where Lazard sees opportunities tied to the AI buildout, data-center infrastructure and emerging markets in a weaker-dollar world.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Recent euro-dollar price action has validated structural euro-dollar bulls, with the case for diversification strategies beyond the dollar still holding as we look to 2H and 2027. Yet this view is increasingly at risk from an evolving cyclical narrative, with an outperforming US economy and the potential for a hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve likely to revive cyclical euro-dollar bears into 2H. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Laura Cooper, managing director and head of macro credit at Nuveen, discuss euro-dollar views into 2H. They also explore compelling FX views beyond the greenback, with Cooper highlighting a potentially more supportive context for the Canadian dollar.

The FX Moment podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“There’s such an informational asymmetry between incumbent investors — the direct lenders who are in the deal and the sponsor — and new parties that it can be harder to bridge that bid-ask,” said Ensis Partners Co-Founder Richard Shinder, “Price transparency acts as a signal... and if you don’t have that price signal, that can be a deterrent to getting things done.” Shinder shared valuable insights into the rapidly evolving middle-market and private credit restructuring landscape in his conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel at the Beard Group Distressed Investing Media Night in New York City on May 19. The discussion delves into asset-liability mismatches, the rising impact of AI and obsolescence risk on technology workouts, pricing transparency challenges and what a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment means for shifting systemic risks.

Oil prices have become the key driver of global rates markets as conflict in the Middle East reshapes inflation expectations and policy outlooks. Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley’s global head of macro strategy, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hornbach explains why energy prices have been the dominant force behind moves in US and global bond markets, why longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively contained and how the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh may react differently to oil at $80 vs. $110 a barrel. The two also discuss whether investors are too confident that crude prices will remain structurally elevated even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and what that could mean for Treasury yields and broader asset markets. They also examine spillover from Japan’s bond market, the risks around the Bank of Japan and dollar-yen and why upcoming trade negotiations involving the US, Mexico and Canada could become another important source of volatility for global fixed income.

Dispersion is rising across emerging markets, reflecting differences in external balances, policy flexibility and economic proximity to the war in Iran. Pablo Goldberg, EM fixed income portfolio manager at BlackRock, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess institutional positioning and investor sentiment across the asset class, as real yields are attractive and fundamentals remain resilient. Goldberg and Sassower discuss inflation expectations, election risk, rating migration and the policy outlook across EMs amid ongoing developments in the Middle East.