FICC Focus

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, recorded in Hong Kong, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Gary Ng, Senior Economist at Natixis CIB in Hong Kong, discuss Asia FX in 4Q and into 2027, with a focus on the yuan and the yen. The bottom line is that structural yuan bulls were validated into 4Q and may extend into 2027, with the 6.65 dollar-yuan reference value credible in the near to mid-term. This is mainly about a yuan-supportive balance of payments position and yuan appeal on global diversification strategies, while relative yield differentials are less of a driver for that currency pair. On the yen and on dollar-yen in particular, Gary and Audrey touched on the mixed drivers and considerations and on what may be the the best avenue to sustained yen strength beyond a turn in the US dollar.The FX Moment podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With nominal GDP running above 6% year to date and earnings season kicking off, Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management, explains why corporate profitability has been well-supported and why that support may be fading, in his return to the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, hosted by Ira Jersey, chief interest-rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. The wide-ranging discussion on the macro backdrop heading into 4Q and beyond covers the Fed’s hiking cycle under Chairman Kevin Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance and why current policy rates may still not be sufficiently restrictive to bring core inflation sustainably back to 2%. Mike and Ira also dig into the Treasury-market selloff — now potentially in the “eighth inning” — tighter financial conditions and what below-trend growth in 2027 could mean for risk assets. The episode also tackles the upcoming midterm elections, implications for AI regulation and the data-center build-out, the fiscal drag from the One Big Beautiful Act and long-term debt sustainability concerns. Finally, Mike shares his medium-term asset allocation views, making the case for real assets over financial assets amid structurally higher rates.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“Even when you think you’ve patched the last three holes ... what does it matter that you actually blocked one, two, and three if the company can still get there through route four?” observes Alex Diaz-Matos, Bloomberg Intelligence senior covenant analyst, on the game of whack-a-mole between creditors and borrowers in today’s bloated credit agreements. In this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku sit down with Alex to explore the cutthroat tactics in liability management exercises and how Aston Martin, Electronic Arts, Xerox and Optimum Communications have used IP, joint ventures and novel entity structures to raise financing and circumvent seemingly ironclad lender protections. The conversation also breaks down the unintended consequences of increasingly precise drafting, the limits of non-unanimous covenant protections and how the distressed market has evolved since Serta turned theoretical vulnerabilities into harsh reality. The podcast concludes (52:34) with Phil and Negisa providing a roundup of their latest distressed credit research on Optimum Communications, Dish Wireless, Hughes Satellite Systems and Getty Images.

With the Federal Reserve confronting persistent inflation, strong demand and questions about how much further rates may need to rise, investors are also watching for potentially significant changes to the central bank’s communications and balance-sheet framework. Richard Clarida, Pacific Investment Management Co. managing director and global economic advisor and former Federal Reserve vice chair, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest-rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Clarida explains why Kevin Warsh inherited an FOMC that had already shifted sharply toward tighter policy, why eliminating formal forward guidance doesn’t mean Fed officials will stop signaling their views and why the September rate increase reflected a committee increasingly focused on bringing inflation back to 2%. The group also discusses how the Fed could shrink its balance sheet while retaining an ample-reserves regime, whether its portfolio should move toward a barbell of Treasury bills and longer-dated securities and the potential role for temporary open-market operations. They close with a discussion of how AI-related capital spending is making the economy less interest-rate sensitive and why the Fed may ultimately need to tighten further if strong demand doesn’t moderate on its own.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit and high yield are in the red for the year after a two-month selloff. Will 4Q deliver gains or more losses, and why? On this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 4Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with George Flynn, high-yield portfolio manager at New Capital, EFG International. They cover valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. The podcast also examines survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geographies (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.