FICC Focus

The angst, consternation and hand-wringing over debt levels may be a contrarian indicator that rate markets are oversold, says Brendan Murphy, North American head of fixed income at Insight Investment Management. Murphy joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the outlook for fixed income. Murphy attributes elevated yields to a stronger macro backdrop, persistent inflation uncertainty, the Fed leadership shift to Chair Kevin Warsh and fiscal concerns amplified by heavy AI-driven corporate issuance. He outlines Insight Investment’s base case that the Fed holds at its upcoming meeting, favors the five-year part of the curve and prefers non-agency securitized credit and agency mortgages over investment grade on valuation grounds. The episode closes with Murphy’s contrarian view that widespread market pessimism may signal a fixed-income buying opportunity, with high-quality portfolios now yielding around 6%, competitive with long-run equity return expectations.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Cross-asset volatility has declined over summer even though the path of resistance for yields has been higher. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on macro dynamics, bond market volatility, yen, S&P 500 dispersion strategies and the fat tails on gas prices.

Emerging market equities have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 14% over the past year, as investors take advantage of attractive valuations, falling currency volatility and a more resilient macroeconomic backdrop. Malcolm Dorson, Senior EM Portfolio Manager and Head of the Active Investment Team at Global X, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the durability of thematic and idiosyncratic investment opportunities across the EM equity universe. Dorson and Sassower assess relative performance, foreign positioning and fund flows as institutional investors exhibit greater interest in moving down the EM capital structure.

With the latest energy shock pushing UK inflation higher while economic growth remains subdued, investors are questioning whether markets have priced too much Bank of England tightening. Jack Meaning, UK chief economist at Barclays, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Meaning explains why Barclays expects inflation to climb above 3% in the second half of 2026 but sees little evidence of the wage or second-round effects that would make the increase durable. The two discuss why keeping Bank Rate at 3.75% already represents a meaningful tightening relative to earlier market expectations and how restrictive financing conditions and labor-market slack are weighing on growth. They also explore whether improving investment intentions — including spending tied to artificial intelligence — can provide support. The conversation examines Brexit’s lingering impact, the UK’s difficult fiscal choices and why Barclays expects the Bank of England to remain on hold this year before inflation moves back toward target in 2027. The episode concludes with a look at the central bank’s upcoming quantitative-tightening decision and the debate over continuing active gilt sales.

Emerging market fund flows are accelerating as credit fundamentals continue to improve amid historically loose financial conditions, wide real yields and deteriorating US dollar demand. Genna Lozovsky, managing principal and chief investment officer of Sandglass Capital Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to share his outlook for special situations and distressed EM credit amid a historically tight spread environment. Lozovsky and Sassower focus on opportunities in off-the-run EM growth, distressed corporates and speculative-grade sovereign debt.