Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy head of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director and head of the US programme. Together they discuss what the US midterm results mean for the war in Iran.

On November 3rd, American voters inflicted a spectacular drubbing on the Republican Party, with the Democrats winning control of Congress. The Democratic Party picked up Senate seats in usually safe red states such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, and will hold its largest House majority in nearly two decades.

Donald Trump was quick to distance himself from the outcome, claiming that the midterms were not a referendum on him or his policies. Vice-president J.D. Vance, by contrast, conceded that “the reason we lost is the war”, referring to the administration’s ongoing conflict with Iran. But Trump has said he would “do [the war] again” and is apparently considering a new round of escalation. Alarmingly, conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson also claimed that the president “may be within days of launching a nuclear strike.”

This week, Mark, Ellie and Jeremy discuss what the midterms mean for American politics and the war in Iran. What factors led to these results? What does the new political make-up of America mean for Trump’s war? And what is the current consensus on what Trump might do now?

This podcast episode was recorded on November 5th 2026.

Bookshelf:
Two tracks to Tehran: The new efforts to stop another US-Iran war, by Ellie Geranmayeh
Hold the obituaries: Trump is still the president, by Jeremy Shapiro
Biden’s Choice by Ben Rhodes
Athens and Sparta: The Rivalry that Shaped Ancient Greece, by Adrian Goldsworthy
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This week Mark Leonard is joined by Nevada Joan Lee, a policy fellow in ECFR’s US programme, and Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow in the American Statecraft program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Together they discuss what the imminent midterms mean for American foreign policy until the end of Donald Trump’s second term—and for Democratic foreign policy in the future.

The US midterm elections take place on November 3rd, with Democrats hoping to win back the House of Representatives, and perhaps even the Senate. America’s global allies, however, will have to wait and see whether a Democratic Congress would be able to change America’s chaotic and increasingly predatory foreign policy. The main question is: what kind of foreign policy will the Democrats implement if the party wins back the presidency in 2028?

This week, Mark, Nevada and Stephen discuss what is at stake in the US midterm elections and beyond. To what extent is foreign policy playing a role in the electoral races? Could the Democratic Party manage to take the Senate as well as the House of Representatives? And what would a Democratic win mean for Europe?

This podcast episode was recorded on October 26th 2026.

Bookshelf:
After the midterms: What a volatile US and an embattled Democratic Party mean for Europe, by Célia Belin and Majda Ruge
A Democratic win isn’t enough: How Europe can prepare for Trump beyond the midterms, by Nevada Joan Lee
Tomorrow, the World: The Birth of U.S. Global Supremacy, by Stephen Wertheim
Life of the party: Democrats and the search for a post-Trump future, by Célia Belin, Chris Herrmann, Nevada Joan Lee
America's Middle East: The Ruination of a Region, by Marc Lynch
Retrench, Defend, Compete: Securing America's Future Against a Rising China, by Charles L. Glaser
Moral Politics: How Liberals and Conservatives Think, Third Edition, by George Lakoff
The Anthropocene Reviewed, by John Green
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Small, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to discuss how Chinese industrial overcapacity is threatening European deindustrialisation—and what Europe can do about it.

Over the summer, Europe’s approach to China shifted markedly. At the June 2026 European Council, leaders were largely united in seeing the surge of Chinese exports as a serious threat to European industry. They also tasked the European Commission to make one last attempt to negotiate a trade deal with Beijing.

Days before the talks began, a leaked paper co-authored by France and Germany set out a tougher agenda for the EU’s China policy. On October 9th, after two days of negotiations in Beijing, the EU’s trade and economic security commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, announced that the first result was volume limits on hybrid vehicles, the biggest problem for Europe’s car industry, and that China has accepted the proposal.

This week, the European Council in Brussels is returning to the issue, and Mark and Andrew discuss where the EU-China trade talks stand. What is behind the Franco-German paper? What options does the EU have to deal with the China shock 2.0? And what is at stake for Europe’s economy?

This podcast episode was recorded on October 16th 2026.

Bookshelf:
Institutional Genes: Origins of China's Institutions and Totalitarianism, by Chenggang Xu
The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms, by Andrew Small
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Guntram Wolf, senior fellow at Bruegel and professor of economics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, and Pierre Heilbronn, former vice-president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and France’s former special envoy for Ukraine’s relief and reconstruction. Together, they discuss the European debate around the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).

Every seven years, EU member states agree on the MFF—but talks to plan the 2028-2034 edition have created two camps. On one side is the “friends of cohesion”, who want to protect money for poorer regions and farmers. On the other is the “frugals”, net contributors led by Germany that want a smaller budget focused on defence and competitiveness.

On October 10th, the Irish presidency tabled a compromise to cut the commission’s proposal of almost €2 trillion by about 8%, at the cost of competitiveness, foreign aid and emergency funds. It would leave farmer subsidies and cohesion funds untouched, however. EU leaders are now meeting in Brussels on October 15th-16th, with the MFF negotiations expected to reach a decisive phase in the coming weeks.

In this week’s episode, Mark, Guntram and Pierre discuss how the EU budget is put together, and why this round is proving so hard to close. Can the two camps find common ground? Where do negotiations stand today, and what could help clear the way to an agreement? And what is at stake for Europeans competitiveness?

Bookshelf:

On Xi Jinping. How Xi's Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World, by Kevin Rudd
A Certain Idea of France: The Life of Charles de Gaulle, by Julian Jackson
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In late September, 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal was evicted from the Madrid flat she had lived in for seven decades, sparking nationwide protests over Spain’s housing crisis. Pedro Sánchez’s government responded with two emergency housing decrees which Congress rejected on October 2nd. Three days later, the prime minister dissolved parliament and called for a snap election on November 29th. Sánchez has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat before, but the polls are pointing towards a PP–Vox coalition that could bring the far right into government for the first time since the return of democracy.

In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Carla Hobbs, the head of Madrid office and policy fellow at ECFR, along with Nacho Torreblanca, a distinguished policy fellow at the geoeconomics and technology programme and senior adviser to the Madrid office. Together, they discuss whether Sánchez’s gamble will pay off and what it means for Europe. Why did Sánchez call the election now? Where do the polls stand? And what are the central issues that Spaniards will vote on?

Bookshelf:

“Solos en el mundo” by Arancha González Laya
“Nexus: A Brief History of Information Networks from the Stone Age to AI” by Yuval Noah Harari

Update: This podcast was recorded on October 7th. Since then, Maricarmen Abascal died in hospital at the age of 87. In addition, Spain’s trade unions have called a general strike over housing for November 11th, just weeks before the vote.
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