Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we address a cornucopia of topics in emails from Alex, Superb Diamond Range, and Mark.  We discuss the Risk Parity Radio Reddit forum started by listener Adrian, an OPTRA-inspired portfolio with lower leverage and real-world tax location choices, extending managed futures history for better portfolio testing and expectations, why covered call ETFs usually change payouts more than outcomes, using OpenSocialsecurity.com to model claiming strategies, a simple UK-focused risk parity allocation and how to think about equity weight and value tilt, why fees matter less than people think in many modern ETF choices, withdrawal order and Roth conversions as situation-specific decisions that change every year, why good tax advice can add more value than investment tweaks.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Risk Parity Radio Reddit Forum (courtesy Adrian):  riskparityradio

Alex's Portfolio (paywall):  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Extending Managed Futures Data back to 1971:  I reconstructed a trend-following return series back to 1971. Here is the methodology. : r/LETFs

One of a Series of Ben Felix Videos on Covered Call Funds: Covered Calls: What People (Still) Get Wrong

Open Social Security:  Open Social Security: Free, Open-Source Social Security Calculator

Superb Diamond Range YouTube Channel:  Superb Diamond Range Podcast - YouTube

Mark's Bigger Pockets Interview:  Tax Efficient Ways to Withdraw Money in Early Retirement

Mark's Slide Presentation:  Alternatives to Sequential Drawdown - Google Slides

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:  

Most investing advice gets fuzzy right when you need it most: the moment you stop accumulating and start living off your portfolio. We dig into real listener questions that force clean thinking about risk parity portfolio design, early retirement withdrawals, and the uncomfortable truth that taxes can matter more than the exact tickers you pick.

We start with a detailed listener build based on an OPTRA-style framework, including how they adjust leverage, blend stocks with bonds, gold, managed futures, and alternatives, and even work through tax location choices for brokerage versus IRA and 401(k) assets. That leads into a blunt conversation about covered call ETFs and other structured “income” products: what they can do, what they cannot do, and why so many shiny new ETFs are really just higher-fee packaging. We also share a valuable community resource for extending managed futures data for backtesting, plus a practical nod to OpenSocialsecurity.com for modeling claiming decisions.

Then we go deep on decumulation strategy. There is no single correct “withdrawal order” because your best move depends on your tax brackets, deductions, healthcare costs, income mix, and what changes year to year. We explain why rigid rules of thumb break, why fourth-quarter tax planning matters, and why paying for strong tax advice can produce more real “alpha” than endlessly tinkering with portfolio allocations.

We wrap with our weekly review of market performance and the eight sample portfolios, highlighting how diversification shows up when different assets lead and lag. Subscribe, share this with a friend who’s planning retirement, and leave a review with the question you want us to tackle next.
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In this episode we answer emails from Multi-family Investor, Nathan, and John.  We discuss dual momentum strategies, equity glide paths and the Bengen, Pfau, and Kitces research, letting equity drift higher to reduce rebalancing and transactions, managed futures proxy limits and why commodities are imperfect stand ins, and SDMF versus DBMF.

Links:

Dual Momentum Explanation Video:  DUAL MOMENTUM | Momentum Trading Strategy by Gary Antonacci

Portfolio Visualizer Dual Momentum Analysis Page:  Test Tactical Allocation Models

BestFolio YouTube Channel: BestFolio - YouTube

Bengen Book:  Bill Bengen’s New Book | A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More.

John's Summary of Risk Parity Radio Over The Years:  Episode 445: "Funny How" With Listener Humor, Rebalancing Leveraged Funds, And CTA | Risk Parity Radio

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Dual momentum and risk parity can look strangely similar in a backtest chart, right up until you try to live with one of them in a real retirement portfolio. We take three listener emails and use them to pressure test what matters most when you are optimizing for sustainable spending, low stress execution, and fewer “gotchas” at tax time.

First, we react to a clever tactic: brokerage transfer bonuses and how, for large portfolios, account churn can act like an extra slice of return. Then we dig into the big question behind it all: dual momentum versus risk parity. We explain why we are skeptical of strategies that require frequent full portfolio shifts in taxable accounts, how turnover can trigger short term capital gains, and why the missing piece for many people is a simple dual momentum ETF that could handle the trading inside the fund.

Next we shift to equity glide paths and sequence of returns risk. We connect classic retirement research from Bengen, Pfau, and Kitces to the risk parity mindset and talk through what the “equity versus non equity” split is really doing for a safe withdrawal rate. We also share a practical implementation idea: sometimes the best glide path is simply letting equities drift higher over time so you trade less.

We wrap with managed futures logistics, including the pre 1986 proxy problem and a practical update on SDMF versus DBMF, from swaps and potential tax efficiency to liquidity and costs that do not always show up in the expense ratio. If this helps, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave us a review where you listen.

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In this episode we answer emails from Dave, Bob, and Waldo.  We discuss how Monte Carlo simulations differ depending on their basis and how they differ from historical back-tests, the problem of trusting retirement calculators without understanding the assumptions inside them and choosing the correct assumptions, why the Golden Ratio portfolio is built for bad decades, and why a scary brokerage warning screen is often just strategic butt covering and marketing.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Jesse Cramer Best Interest Podcast Episode 134:  Even Financial Advisors Misunderstand Monte Carlo Retirement Analysis (E134)

Yours Truly on Best Interest Podcast:  Are You Hoarding, Hustling, or Harvesting in Retirement? - E144
The Four Quadrant Model Exquisitely Explained With Illustrations Inspired By Vermeer:  The Four Quadrant Wealth Atlas.pdf - Google Drive

Four Quadrant Model Video:  Understanding Correlations and Diversification Using the Four Quadrant Model

Minimize Your Miss Article About The Golden Ratio Portfolio:  Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio Charts
Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

One retirement tool says you’re fine. Another says you’re headed for disaster. If you’ve ever run a backtest, then hit “Monte Carlo” and watched your plan implode, we get why that feels like whiplash and we also know it’s usually explainable.

We walk through a listener’s withdrawal-rate question and break down the real reason these results diverge: the construction of the simulation. We explain parameterized Monte Carlo (assumed returns and standard deviation on a normal distribution) versus historical Monte Carlo (scrambled real return data), why fat tails and skewness matter, and how limited datasets for assets like international stocks or REITs can quietly distort the numbers. We also share a simple rule for better decision-making: stop hunting for a “perfect” portfolio in a calculator and start comparing Portfolio A to Portfolio B across multiple tools until the relative story stays consistent.

From there, we connect the math to portfolio design. We talk about why worst-case decades drive safe withdrawal rate research, why a decumulation portfolio has different goals than a stock-heavy accumulation portfolio, and how the Golden Ratio approach fits into a four quadrant model across inflation and growth regimes. Then we tackle a very practical worry: Fidelity’s scary designated investments agreement screen when buying a gold ETF like GLDM and why that warning is often more about liability and business model than unique risk.

If you find this helpful, subscribe so you don’t miss the weekly portfolio reviews, share it with a friend who’s modeling retirement, and leave us a rating and review so more DIY investors can find the show.

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In this episode we answer emails from Geraldo, Robin, Roy, and Daniel.  We catch up on where we've been and our Camino and the Walk For McKenna, and then shift into discussions of donor-advised funds for charitable giving, a new-fangled auto-callable “income” ETF (a/k/a another "shiny object" -- also check out Episode 504), and review a retirement portfolio and a proposal to shift from a bond fund to individual long term treasury bonds.

Links:

Daffy CEO Interview:  A Donor-Advised Fund For You (Daffy): Democratizing Philanthropy for Everyone | Adam Nash | 200

CAGE/CAIE Descriptions:  Autocallable ETFs | Calamos Investments

Testfolio Analysis of CAGE and CAIE vs. VOO:  Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio

Rational Reminder on Leveraged ETFs:  The Truth About Leveraged ETFs | Rational Reminder 430

ETF Slop Video:  The Rise of ETF Slop

Ben Carlson Article on Bond Funds vs. Bondsb:  Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A “guaranteed 14% return” headline is the kind of thing that can hijack a smart investor’s brain in seconds, especially when retirement is getting real. We dig into why these slick new income products spread so fast, how auto-callable and options overlay ETFs are structured, and why a big distribution is not the same thing as a better outcome. Our north star stays simple: build for total return, diversification, and tax flexibility instead of buying something just because it feels like a paycheck.

We also answer a practical charitable giving question that comes up constantly for DIY investors: should you use a donor-advised fund to support a spouse’s 501(c)(3) charity, and how should you time contributions? We talk through the “trust but verify” checklist with DAF providers, when donating appreciated shares might be even better, and how donation bunching can help if your income varies year to year. If you’re trying to align a risk parity style allocation with consistent giving, this is the clean planning layer that often gets missed.

From there, we tackle retirement portfolio mechanics: whether it ever makes sense to swap a long-term Treasury bond ETF (like VGLT) for an individual 30-year Treasury to lock in a coupon. The key takeaway is that long Treasuries in an all-weather or risk parity portfolio are usually held as recession insurance and rebalancing power, not as an income product. Liquidity and the ability to rebalance matter, and simplicity matters even more when you consider what your future self or your heirs will have to manage.

If this helped you think more clearly about charitable giving, retirement income strategy, and avoiding shiny object ETFs, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review. What investing product have you been pitched lately that sounded amazing on the surface?
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In this episode we answer emails from Michael, Matt, and Ron.  We discuss books for a 30-something family man and practical advicbe for approaching non-fiction more efficiently in the age of AI ChatBots, the world's most famous Easy Chair, and how EDV can work in a risk parity style portfolio. 

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

The World's Most Famous Easy Chair:  Easy Chair.jpg - Google Drive

Catching Up To FI Podcast With Yours Truly in Said Easy Chair:  Are Bonds Dead?: Fixed Income Fundamentals (Part 1) | Frank Vasquez | Episode 229

Bigger Pockets Money Podcast feat. Yours Truly:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)

AI Agent Folllies with Hannah Fry:  Why AI Agents are either the best or worst thing we’ve ever builtb

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Most personal finance advice fails for one simple reason: it ignores where you actually are. We start by answering a listener’s question about book recommendations, but we do it through a framework that makes the whole money world easier to navigate: four investor levels, from budgeting and cash flow, to early-stage investing, to low-cost index fund competence, to more advanced goal-driven portfolio design. Along the way, we call out the “shiny object” traps where media and marketing keep people stuck buying products instead of building skills.

From there we get practical about learning efficiently in 2026: use AI to summarize popular personal finance books, compare what overlaps, and only read the ones that truly fit your family. We talk through standout titles like The Psychology of Money, The Simple Path to Wealth, Die With Zero, and Just Keep Buying, then pivot to what matters most for couples in their 30s with kids: getting on the same page. We share resources built for real relationships, including Ramit Sethi’s Money for Couples and a surprisingly useful marriage-centered option from John Gottman that includes guided money conversations.

Next, we tackle a classic risk parity investing question: should you use EDV instead of TLT for long-term Treasury bond exposure? We break down bond duration in plain English, why total bond funds like BND can be weak diversifiers against equities, and how Treasury STRIPS funds can change portfolio volatility and sizing. Finally, we run through our weekly portfolio reviews and the current market backdrop, including why managed futures can behave differently when stocks and bonds struggle.

If you like data-driven investing with a human filter, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave us a rating and review so more DIY investors can find it.
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