Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from TJ, Jose and Optimus Bill.  We discuss the foibles of trying to catch up via investment picking if you are behind on retirement, debunk CAPE-style and other crystal ball forecasts from "experts" that Level Two investors often fixate upon, lay out practical growth-tilted allocations that can beat narrative-driven investing and invite you all to contact Optimus Bill about your Risk Parity Radio listening habits.

And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

FI Service Corp DC Charitable Event:  DC Double Play

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Michael Batnick Critique of CAPE Ratio "Predictions":  Stocks Are More Expensive Than They Used to Be

Accumulating With a Golden Ratio Portfolio Article:  Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio Charts

Catching Up to FI Episode 100:  0️⃣ From Zero to Hero: A Late Starter’s Guide to the Galaxy 🌌 | Becky Heptig | 100

Half US LCG/Half SCV Portfolio vs. US Total Market:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

International Half LCG/Half SCV Portfolio vs. International Total Market:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Merriman ETF Recommendations:  Best-in-Class ETFs | Merriman Financial Education Foundation

Email Optimus Bill Here:  [email protected]
Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

The fastest way to get yourself into trouble as a DIY investor is to believe you can “catch up” with a smarter prediction. We start with a listener who’s anxious about high stock valuations, AI hype, and a potential lost decade and asks the question most people are thinking but rarely say out loud: does it really make sense to go all-in on stocks if you cannot afford a big drawdown?

We break down why the real accelerator toward financial independence is usually your savings rate, especially when your investment pile is still small, and why a lucky run in individual growth stocks can create a dangerous feedback loop. From there we take a hard swing at valuation crystal balls like CAPE ratio forecasting and explain how to test any market-timing claim against forward-looking evidence and simple base rates rather than headlines and vibes.

Then we pivot to practical portfolio construction. If you want growth without betting your future on a single narrative, we talk about diversification that actually changes the ride: balancing large-cap growth with small-cap value, thinking more clearly about international exposure, and knowing when risk parity diversifiers like long-term Treasuries, gold, commodities, and managed futures make sense. We also answer a high-earner question about moving from a real-estate-heavy balance sheet into a growth-oriented market portfolio and why we’re skeptical of robo-advisors when a simple ETF plan will do.

If you like clear rules, real-world asset allocation, and a little portfolio performance nerdiness, hit subscribe, share this with a friend who’s chasing forecasts, and leave a review so more investors can find the show.

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In this episode we answer emails from Luc, Deep, and Paul.  We discuss the French Canadian "Sak kosh" portfolio, try to help out the elder Sonia sleep well at night, distinguishing small cap blend funds from small cap value funds, and share how we use AI tools to summarize long investing content without losing the source material.

Links: 

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

The Superman Portfolio Withdrawal Rates:  Withdrawal Rates – Portfolio Charts

The Superman Portfolio Drawdowns:  Drawdowns – Portfolio Charts

The Superman Portfolio Portfolio Matrix:  Portfolio Matrix With The Superman Portfolio.png - Google Drive

RPR Episode 436 Summary Video:  RPR Episode 436 Illustrated: The Two Halves of Your Financial Life

Admiral Ackbar's Best Practices For Retirement Planning:  NotebookLM - Retirement Tactical Briefing with Admiral Ackbar and Tenon Financial

Daniel Plainview's "I Drink Your Milkshake" Best Practices for Retirement Planning:  NotebookLM - Plainview Wealth Extraction

Video Version:  NotebookLM - The Ruthless Extraction

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A listener builds a Canadian “risk parity style” portfolio that looks like a mad science project on paper and then asks the question we all quietly worry about: is this clever diversification, or is it just complexity wearing a lab coat. We walk through the logic behind mixing small cap value, gold, long-duration Treasuries, managed futures, and a small dose of leveraged ETFs, plus the real constraint that changes everything for many investors: you can only buy what your country and accounts actually offer. I share how I think about backtesting when tools don’t support Canadian ETFs, why proxies can be useful, and why great historical results still don’t remove behavior risk.

Then we shift to a common real-life retirement planning scenario: someone in their mid-70s sells a home, moves into a retirement community, and only needs about 2% per year from investments. Instead of forcing a complicated portfolio to do the job, I explain why a single premium immediate annuity can be the cleanest solution for a very risk-averse retiree, potentially covering that gap with a relatively small slice of the nest egg and letting the rest stay invested simply and calmly. We also talk about separating mandatory expenses from discretionary spending so the plan feels safe and sustainable.

We close with a fast answer on asset location for a saver juggling multiple account types and debating small cap value placement. The punchline: make sure you’re actually buying small cap value, and don’t over-optimize what usually doesn’t matter much. Plus, a quick look at using Google NotebookLM to summarize long podcasts and documents in a way that stays grounded in the inputs you provide. If you found this helpful, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find it.
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In this episode we answer emails from Geraldo, Rock, Ute.  We discuss how to give well, shifting from big-name school donations to smaller charities with immediate impact, moving from individual stocks to a Golden Butterfly style portfolio with less stress, treating Roth conversions as optional and highly personal rather than automatic, using a conservative Interactive Brokers margin loan as a temporary cash buffer, lowering margin-call risk with diversification and alternatives, and pressure-testing inflation claims for retirees and comparing U.S. data with and older study from The Netherlands.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

WCI Podcast Episode re Charitable Giving with Rebecca Herbst:  How to Maximize the Impact of Your Charitable Giving - WCI Podcast #470

Referenced Inflation Study Paper:  S1474747216000202jra 85..109

J.P Morgan Inflation Study:  JP_Morgan_White_Paper_Three_Retirement_Spending_Surprises.pdf - Google Drive

RAND Inflation Study:  Spending Trajectories After Age 65: Variation by Initial Wealth | RAND

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
You can be “right” about taxes and still be wrong about living. We dig into three listener emails that expose a common trap for smart investors: turning retirement into an endless optimization project, while the real goal is a calmer portfolio, a sustainable withdrawal plan, and a life you actually want to spend money on.

First, we walk through a practical way to transition from individual stocks to a Golden Butterfly portfolio without getting paralyzed by detail. We talk about why macro allocation matters more than the exact ticker list, how to think about growth vs value exposure, and why simplifying inside retirement accounts is usually easier than in taxable accounts where capital gains can bite. We also share what we’d try to eliminate first when someone is de-risking for retirement.

Next, we zoom out to retirement tax planning and charitable giving. We discuss why blanket advice on Roth conversion strategy and withdrawal order often fails, what it means to “disgorge” traditional IRAs before RMD age, and how qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) can be a quietly powerful tool for charitably inclined retirees.

Then we tackle margin as a tool, not a lifestyle. We break down using a conservative Interactive Brokers margin backstop, how diversification can reduce drawdowns and margin-call risk, and why assets like Treasuries, gold, and managed futures show up again in risk parity style thinking. We also address a listener challenge on retiree inflation and why country, data vintage, and healthcare systems can flip the conclusion.

If you like clear portfolio mechanics with real-world tradeoffs, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find us.
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In this episode we answer emails from Milo, Scott, and Joel.  We discuss bad advisor incentives and how to classify them by their business models, identify the only business model you want to patronize, and then move on to Treasury STRIPS and rebalancing realities, practical withdrawal mechanics with a test portfolio, and why Bitcoin’s high correlation to tech stocks undermines its role as a diversifier. 

We also celebrate the final results of the Fairfax CASA matching campaign and share a thank-you message from their executive director.
Links:

Classifying Financial Advisors By Their Business Models:  Interacting with the Financial Services Industry with SC Gutierrez

Kitces Article on Rebalancing:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands

Building a Sample Portfolio Video:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio) - YouTube

Video on Managed Futures and SDMF:  Simplify SDMF in Focus - YouTube

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A matching donor puts $20,000 on the table, the audience steps up, and suddenly Fairfax CASA is funded far beyond what anyone expected. We start with that story because it says something important about this community: you can be serious about investing and still lead with empathy. We share the final campaign results and a message from Fairfax CASA’s executive director about what this support means for children navigating foster care and the court system.

Then we shift back to what Risk Parity Radio does best: practical emails from DIY investors who want clearer rules and fewer regrets. We talk about the “67-fund portfolio” problem, why complexity is often a sales tactic, and how to screen out conflicted advice from banks, credit unions, insurance shops, and big marketing-heavy firms. We also dig into the AUM model versus flat fee and hourly planning, plus why smart retirement planning often comes down to tax planning and behavioral discipline more than picking the perfect fund.

From there, we get hands-on with portfolio construction and process. We cover Treasury STRIPS funds like GOVZ, why you cannot reliably time the best rebalancing moment during a recession, and what to do instead with partial rebalancing or rebalancing bands. We also answer a nuts-and-bolts withdrawal question using a test portfolio approach, and we close with a straight take on Bitcoin correlation: if it moves with stocks, it is not diversification. Along the way, we explain what “alternative assets” really means and why gold and managed futures keep showing up in risk parity style asset allocation.

Subscribe, share this with a friend who’s tired of salesy advice, and leave a review so more investors can find the show.
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In this episode we answer emails from Michael, Jim, and Optimus Bill.  We start with a 67-year-old investor who is all-in on equities and cannot sleep, and how changing portfolio allocations can lead to better rest. We share a framework of "the three H's" for determining whether you are Hustling, Hoarding, or Harvesting your way through retirement, and how that may impact your well-being over time. We also dig into why people chase bond ladders and bucketeering.

And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Testfolio Analysis with Sleep-Better-At-Night Metrics:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Optimus Bill's Bond Ladder Extravaganza Article:  Building a Bond Ladder with Individual Bonds and ETFs

Ben Carlson's Explanation As To Why Bond Ladders and Bond Funds are Functionally the Same:  Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Your portfolio should not be a nightly stress test. We start with a listener who is 67, 100% in equity funds, and staring down retirement in the next one to three years while worrying about an extended downturn. From there we get practical about “sleep-at-night” portfolio design, comparing volatility, maximum drawdown, and even the Ulcer Index across common setups like an S&P 500 heavy approach, a Bogleheads-style three-fund portfolio, a classic 60 40 mix, and a risk parity style Golden Ratio portfolio.

Then we zoom out to the bigger question of what money is actually for. I share a simple framework I call the three H’s: hustling, hoarding, and harvesting. We talk through how each approach affects real life outcomes like relationships, experiences, buying back your time, and giving, and why a portfolio that supports harvesting can matter more than a portfolio that simply wins a return contest.

We also tackle a timely question about bond ladder ETFs and why so many ladder, bucket, and time-segmentation products keep popping up. The blunt take: a lot of it solves a fear problem more than a finance problem, and the difference between ladders and bond funds is often smaller than people think. We close with our weekly review of the eight sample portfolios, covering stocks, treasury bonds, gold, commodities, managed futures, and more.

If this helped you think more clearly about retirement investing and diversified asset allocation, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find it.
Support the show