Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Joe, Ashley, and Chris.  First, we celebrate the early retirements and generosity of our listeners, spotlighting what retirement feels like when it is driven by joy and choice instead of fear. Then we answer a near-retirement question about bubble warnings, international investing, the proper way to use expert opinions, and how to build a risk parity style portfolio that can survive drawdowns and fund withdrawals.  With the help of Claude.

And we discuss our Top of the T-shirt Campaign (Part Deux!) for the Father McKenna Center.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Yours Truly on Jesse Cramer's Podcast:  Are You Hoarding, Hustling, or Harvesting in Retirement? - E144

Video Summary Version:  The Harvesting Imperative: Structuring Retirement Around Well Being, Not Money

Slide Show Summary Version:  Jesse Cramer Presents The Three H's.pdf - Google Drive

Video Summary of RPR Episode 508:  RPR Episode 508 Illustrated: The Three H’s of Retirement

Jeremy Grantham on the Long-View (forward to minute 42 for his diversification recommendations):  Jeremy Grantham ‘Almost Everything Looks More Attractive Than the US Equity Market’ - YouTube

Michael Batnick (not Josh Brown!) Critique of CAPE Ratio-Based "Predictions":  Stocks Are More Expensive Than They Used to Be

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

You can do everything “right” for decades and still blow up retirement by making one mistake at the wrong time: heading into the drawdown years with a stock-heavy portfolio and no ballast. We kick off with a listener note that hits the best part of financial independence, retiring at 45 with true optionality and a plan built around joy instead of restriction. That story opens a bigger question: what is money for once you’ve already proven you can save it?

We dig into the psychology of harvesting wealth and the practical realities of sequence of returns risk, especially in the five years before and after you stop working. We talk about spending that actually improves well being, including relationships, experiences, buying back your time, and giving, plus why so many high savers get stuck in hoarding or hustling modes. Along the way, we share updates on the Father McKenna Center and how listener generosity turns portfolio talk into real-world impact.

Then we tackle a timely investing worry: bubble warnings and Jeremy Grantham’s cautions around US equities and AI hype. We break down why opinion shopping is a dead end, why growth vs value diversification matters more than US vs international for drawdown safety, and how funds like long-term Treasuries, gold, and managed futures show up in resilient risk parity style portfolios such as the Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio. We also cover TSP international limitations, plus our weekly portfolio reviews and July withdrawal amounts. If you found this useful, subscribe, share it with a friend who is near retirement, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find us.

Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Sarah, Tyler and Luc.  We Sarah's detailed plan to take a one to two year family gap year, travel, and unpack tax-smart ways to fund short-term spending, why we keep long-term money invested simply, more cowbell, and why complicated advisor math can be more noise than help how it can mask conflicts of interest.  We also touch on the Cederberg paper (yes, with a C and not an S despite my mis-statement) and why it is of little or no practical use for investors even though it may be of academic interest.

Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Jillian Johnsrud's "Retire Often" Book:  Book | Retire Often

Referenced PWL Link:  Canadian Portfolio Manager: Introducing the “Plaid” ETF Portfolios | PWL Capital: Bender Bender & Bortolotti
Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A one to two year career break with three kids sounds like the kind of plan personal finance forums love to dunk on. We take it seriously, run it through a real-world investing lens, and show how a “mini-retirement” can be both joyful and financially survivable when the time horizon and the portfolio match.

We walk through Sarah’s numbers, the stress points, and the decision that matters most: separating short-term spending from long-term compounding. For a gap year (or two), we prefer building a large, boring cash pile fast and funding it primarily from the taxable brokerage account, so a sudden market drop doesn’t force you to sell stocks at the worst possible moment. We also talk through keeping a HELOC as a backup plan rather than the main plan, and why retirement accounts often belong in simple equity index funds when you truly don’t need the money for a decade or more.

Then we get tactical on taxes. Lower-income years can open the door to tax loss harvesting and tax gain harvesting, including the often-missed 0% long-term capital gains bracket if your total income stays low enough. We also explain why we treat taxes as an expense that changes based on what you sell and when, instead of playing confusing games that “discount” the value of entire accounts.

To round it out, we respond to listener skepticism about after-tax portfolio valuation frameworks, advisor incentives, and the Cedarberg paper’s practical limits. If you like smart investing, plain language, and a dash of “more cowbell” diversification talk, hit subscribe, share the episode with a friend, and leave us a review so more DIY investors can find the show.
Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Tim, Avid Listener, and Aaron.  We discuss bond allocation in an intermediate accumulation Golden Butterfly style portfolios, the follies of fixating on fund or ticker symbol returns instead of the purpose of an asset in a portfolio,  and the follies of holding too much in cash.

And we discuss our Top of the T-shirt Campaign (Part Deux!) for the Father McKenna Center.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Analysis of TLT, MBB and SPY:  Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio

Analysis of gold royalty companies:  Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio

Liz Ann Sonders interview of Keith McCullough:  What Happens After Peak Inflation? (With Keith McCullough) | Charles Schwab

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Chasing a higher yield can feel like progress, but what if it is quietly breaking your portfolio? We take on three listener questions that all circle the same core problem: fund shopping without a framework. From a Golden Butterfly style intermediate-term risk parity portfolio stuck with a limited 401k bond menu, to the temptation to use stable value funds, Roth space, and asset swaps to “fix” taxes, we talk through what matters most when your goal is steady accumulation for a real-world timeline like three to seven years.

Next we get blunt about substitutes. Mortgage-backed securities ETFs may look like a better bond deal on paper, and gold royalty companies may look like “gold with higher returns,” but risk parity investing is not built by grabbing the flashiest ticker. We explain the four quadrant model and why each sleeve has a job: stocks for long-run growth, Treasury bonds as recession insurance that can be rebalanced when equities drop, and alternatives like gold or managed futures for low correlation during inflationary or stagflationary shocks. The right question is not “what returned more,” but “what will behave the way I need when the economic weather turns.”

We also address a popular habit that masquerades as investing: moving cash between HYSAs, money markets, and short-term funds to optimize yield. If tiny rate differences feel meaningful, it may be a sign you are holding too much cash and taking on cash drag over the long run. We close with our weekly portfolio reviews across the eight sample portfolios and a reminder that nobody knows what markets will do next, so a sturdy process matters more than predictions.

If this helps, subscribe, share the episode with a fellow DIY investor, and leave a review so more people can find Risk Parity Radio.

Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Michael, Raphy, and Roman.  We discuss using a short-term SPIA as a bridge before Social Security and why it probably doesn't matter one way or the other if you are even a little over-saved, and how much flexibility a well-funded risk parity portfolio can really provide. We also tackle covered calls, dividend and income fund hype, and why portfolio design starts with asset classes, taxes, and drawdown tolerance rather than chasing tickers.  We also discuss the real differences between more and less aggressive risk parity style portfolio on an efficient frontier.

Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Ben Felix on Covered Calls (one of several videos):  Covered Calls: What People (Still) Get Wrong

Comparison of ADX with Common Index Funds:  Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio

Ben Felix on Dividend Investing:  The Irrelevance of Dividends

Afford Anything Episode #618:  They Ran Out of Money. I Didn’t. Here’s Why.

Afford Anything Risk Parity Portfolio Blueprint:  Afford Anything frank-vasquez-risk-parity-portfolio-BluePrint.pdf - Google Drive

Comparison of Golden Butterfly and Roman's Modification:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A five-year annuity that throws off real cash flow can look almost too good to be true, especially when you’re trying to retire before Social Security and Medicare. We dig into a listener’s plan to leave IT at 55 with a $175,000 budget and a risk parity style portfolio, then pressure-test the idea of using a short-term period-certain SPIA as a “pension bridge” to reduce early sequence of returns stress. The big lens we keep coming back to is proportionality: if the annuity is under 10% of the portfolio, it behaves a lot like a cash pile, CD ladder, or bond ladder and may not meaningfully change the long-run plan, but it can change how you sleep at night.

From there, we shift into options and “extra income” strategies. We break down why covered calls often cap upside and can reduce long-term total return, and we draw a bright line between that and riskier approaches like selling puts, where rare crashes can cause huge losses. If you’re going to trade at all in retirement accounts, we argue for a simple discipline: don’t obsess over what you might make, calculate what you could lose, then size it so it can’t wreck your lifestyle.

We also take on dividend-focused closed-end funds and the lure of shiny tickers. The message is blunt: the first word after income is taxes, and good retirement investing starts with asset classes, tax location, and drawdown tolerance, not fund-of-the-week marketing. We close with a listener’s Golden Butterfly tweaks and what higher withdrawal rates really cost in drawdowns and ulcer index stress. Subscribe, share this with a friend planning early retirement, and leave a review with your biggest question about bridging the years before Social Security.

Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Wilson, Tim, and John.  We discuss why life insurance products are not magical perpetual motion machines that make your portfolios go faster, why insurance contracts cannot outperform the same underlying investments once costs and commissions are included, and how insurance marketers mislead the public with biased studies. We also a listener's musical tastes and answer an I Bonds allocation question.

And we discuss our Top of the T-shirt Campaign (Part Deux!) for the Father McKenna Center.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Wilson's First Link to Insurance Marketing Materials:  WBC-Whitepaper-Integrating-Whole-Life-Insurance-into-a-Retirement-Income-Plan-Emphasis-on-Cash-Value-as-a-Volatility-Buffer-Asset.pdf

Wilson's Second Link to Insurance Marketing Materials:  Benefits of integrating insurance products into a retirement plan (pdf)

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Whole life insurance gets marketed like a magic third thing: safer than stocks, better than bonds, and somehow able to “buffer” retirement withdrawals when markets drop. We slow that claim down and look at what it really is: an insurance contract with costs, commissions, and built-in friction that has to come out of your return somewhere.

We talk through why incentives matter so much in the financial services industry, especially when the person advising you also gets paid to sell permanent life insurance. Then we use a simple mental model, the first law of thermodynamics, to explain why inserting a contract between you and the underlying investments cannot increase performance. If an insurance company invests your premiums in conservative assets, the most you can get back is what those assets earn minus the policy’s expenses, insurance charges, and sales costs.

Next, we show how the sales math often works: bury the assumptions, headline the results. We break down the kinds of inputs that can make a Monte Carlo analysis or a 4% rule chart look scary on purpose, including inflated fees, unrealistic retirement tax brackets, unnecessary term insurance choices, and conservative forward return “crystal ball” projections. Frank also shares his own whole life policy numbers as a real-world reference point.

We close with a listener question on I Bonds versus Treasury bond ETFs, a straightforward take on tax location and allocation choices, and our weekly portfolio review across the sample risk parity portfolios. If you find this useful, subscribe, share the episode with a DIY investor, and leave a rating and review.

Support the show