Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Jose, Optimus Bill, and Steve.  We discuss bonds, retirement taxes, valuing Social Security and when to take it, how some use the four quadrant model for market timing, and the latest wave of complex ETFs. Along the way, we make the case that liquidity is the real goal of retirement planning, not income that may raise your tax bills.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

The CAGE ETF Information Page:  CAGE - Calamos Autocallable Growth ETF | Calamos Investments

ETF Slop Video:  The Rise of ETF Slop

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Retirement plans fall apart when we confuse comfort words with real outcomes. “Income” sounds safe, but it often creates taxes you do not need, while the thing that actually keeps retirees calm is liquidity: the ability to raise cash on your schedule without wrecking your portfolio allocation. We lean hard into that distinction, using real listener questions to show how risk parity investing and sensible asset allocation can support spending without turning your life into a tax-driven paycheck factory.

We start with a practical bond question that every DIY investor runs into: how should you split Treasury exposure between intermediate-term treasuries (VGIT) and long-term treasuries (VGLT)? We explain what treasuries are supposed to do in a risk parity portfolio (recession insurance), why the “right” answer depends more on your total Treasury percentage than on a perfect formula, and how to sanity-check your choices with backtesting tools. Then we tackle municipal bond funds in a brokerage account, the hidden traps of retirement income marketing, and why liquidity restrictions deserve a black mark in retirement planning.

Next, we take on Social Security claiming strategy without the usual internet optimization spiral. We break the decision into real-world categories, talk longevity and household planning, and share a more grounded way to think about valuation by comparing the benefit to annuity pricing rather than break-even charts. We also revisit the four quadrant model and why it can quietly turn into market timing, plus a skeptical look at new options-based leverage products like CAGE and how it differs from leveraged ETFs like UPRO.

We wrap with our weekly portfolio reviews across the eight sample portfolios, including updates on stocks, gold, treasuries, managed futures, and commodities. If this helped, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a rating or review so more investors can find it.
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In this episode we answer emails from Andrew, Geoff, and Frank.  We discuss connecting risk parity investing to a bigger question: how to build a drawdown portfolio you can hold while using money to live a full life. Along the way we share a Fairfax CASA story, dig into narrative psychology, and answer practical fund questions on modifying the sample Golden Ratio portfolio, large cap stock funds, managed futures, and what beta does and does not tell you.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Andrew's Book:  Here I Walk: A Thousand Miles on Foot to Rome with Martin Luther: Wilson, Andrew L., Wilson, Sarah: 9781587433054: Amazon.com: Books

Testfolio Comparison of Sample Golden Ratio vs. FAV Mods vs. 60/40 vs. Three Fund Portfolio:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Testfolio Comparison of Sample Golden Ratio vs. FAV Mods vs. 60/40 vs. Three Fund Portfolio (5% Withdrawals):  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

RPR Episode 436 Summary Video:  RPR Episode 436 Illustrated: The Two Halves of Your Financial Life

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

The best portfolio on paper can still fail in real life if you can’t stick with it when markets get weird. We take a listener-driven mailbag and use it to get practical about risk parity investing, retirement drawdown strategy, and the Golden Ratio portfolio idea as a set of principles rather than a rigid recipe you must copy.

We also pause the market talk to highlight Fairfax CASA and share a powerful story about Christopher, a kid who endured years in the foster system before finally finding permanence through consistent advocacy and support. It’s a reminder that “long-term” is not an abstract concept, it’s something people live through, and steady commitment changes outcomes.

From there we jump into what listeners are wrestling with right now: customizing a drawdown portfolio so you’ll actually hold it. We talk about why personalizing an allocation can increase adherence, when cash is just drag, how international stocks and small cap value (including AVUV-style “best in class” options) can fit, and how to evaluate managed futures funds like DBMF versus alternatives such as CTA. We also answer the beta question directly: there’s no ideal beta target here, because safe withdrawal rates are far more connected to maximum drawdowns and how long a portfolio stays underwater.

If you get value from the show, subscribe, share it with a friend planning retirement, and leave a review on your favorite podcast app.
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In this episode we answer emails from Matt, Michael, Stephen and Al.  We discuss expanding the spending muscle in retirement, the generosity of our listeners, more on the Four Quadrant model and its permutations, and how we stay connected to listeners without inhabiting the conference circuit.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Cool Number Nerd Video:  Fibonacci Numbers hidden in the Mandelbrot Set - Numberphile

MiB Podcast Episode:  Masters in Business: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud - Bloomberg

The Dude's Link re Quadrants and Assets:   Structural Diversification for All Seasons - ReSolve Asset Management (investresolve.com)

Hedgeye Asset Chart:  Hedgeye Four Quadrant Model Best and Worst Assets.pdf - Google Drive

Bloomberg Inflation Presentation:  Bloomberg Investing in Inflationary Regimes Presentation.pdf - Google Drive

Listener Essay on Four Quadrant Model:  15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiS

Claudia Moise Paper with US Treasuries Correlation Data:  Flights to Safety, Volatility Risk, and Monetary Policy by Claudia E. Moise :: SSRN

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Hoarding can look a lot like “being responsible,” especially right before retirement when every headline makes the future feel fragile. We take a listener’s detailed numbers and use them to talk about a problem we see all the time: spending that never catches up with the life you actually want. If your future expenses are likely to decline in real terms, your personal inflation rate may be lower than CPI, and a fixed rule can quietly push you into over-saving instead of living. We share a simple, practical idea for breaking that pattern: create a visible spending bucket, spend intentionally, then review what brought real value and what didn’t. 

Then we shift into a deep question from a data-driven listener who tried to test Bridgewater’s four quadrant model using growth and inflation data. We explain why these relationships are probabilistic, why short time frames can look like a noisy blob, and where to look for research that connects macro regimes to asset returns. Along the way we revisit the roles different diversifiers can play in a risk parity portfolio: Treasury bonds as recession insurance, managed futures and commodities for ugly inflation shocks, and gold as a strange but useful diversifier when the world gets weird. 

We wrap with our weekly portfolio review and a quick read on what’s been working lately across stocks, small cap value, bonds, gold, REITs, commodities and managed futures, including results from our sample portfolios and a few leveraged experiments. If you like practical asset allocation, retirement withdrawal strategy, and plainspoken investing conversations with some humor mixed in, hit play, then subscribe, share the show, and leave a review so more do-it-yourself investors can find it.
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In this episode we answer emails from Dustin, Optimus Bill, Vaibhav, and Morrie.  We discuss how to vet a new "shiny object" ETF, why trying to "fix" target date funds is likely to be a fools' errand as their proper use is extremely limited, and transitioning into a retirement drawdown portfolio without obsessing over recent market highs.

In our Queen Mary segment, we also provide a Fairfax CASA fundraiser update and explain how your donations support foster care advocacy.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Morningstar Analysis of LCOW:  LCOW – Portfolio – Pacer S&P 500 Qul FCF Aristocrats ETF | Morningstar

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

A slick email promises “Quality” and “Aristocrats,” a backtest says it beat the market, and suddenly you are wondering if your portfolio is missing a magic ingredient. We slow that moment down and show you how to think like a process-driven investor instead of a headline-driven one. Starting with a listener question about a brand-new ETF, we walk through a simple evaluation method using Morningstar: check the expense ratio, identify the fund category, inspect the holdings, and compare it to cheaper index funds. The punchline is not about one ticker symbol, it is about learning to spot shiny-object marketing before it steals your time and returns.

From there we tackle a bigger theme: why so much financial media is engineered to keep “Level 2” investors chasing opinions and hopping from strategy to strategy. We talk about data mining, why a 10 to 15 year backtest can be deeply misleading, and what you should demand before believing any performance story. If you care about long-term portfolio design, the right order is asset allocation first, fund selection second, with low costs as a default unless something is truly different.

We also answer questions on target date funds, accumulation versus decumulation, and how real retirement planning gets messy across pre-tax, Roth, HSA, and taxable accounts. Finally, we address a common retirement fear: investing when “the market is high.” We explain why diversification changes that question, how different assets can carry the load at different times, and how to schedule a transition plan if moving all at once feels hard.

Subscribe for more no-nonsense portfolio talk, share this with a friend who keeps getting pitched “new” ETFs, and leave a review if the framework helps. If you can, donate to Fairfax CASA and help provide a steady advocate for children in foster care.

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In this episode we answer emails from Ronald, George, Jeff.  We celebrate episode 500 by sharing a few “Easter egg” resources, then jump into listener questions that cut through common investing myths. We discuss a portfolio for a non-profit, rant about TIPS with a Wall Street Journal article to back us up, and talk about various choices in withdrawal methods.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Rant Anthology Slides:  Risk Parity Radio Rants Anthology.pdf - Google Drive

Four Quadrant Video:  The Four Quadrant Model and the True Meaning of Diversification.mp4 - Google Drive

WSJ Article on TIPS:  TIPS_ Inflation-Protected Bonds Dont Help You When Inflation Is High - WSJ Copy.pdf - Google Drive

Bernstein TIPS Article:  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives ("A bond fund manager recently related to me his difficulty in figuring out the role of TIPS in his portfolios. After fumbling for a reply, I realized that he was right: like Social Security, they don’t occupy a formal slot in most folks’ asset allocation. . . . TIPS should be kept mentally separate from the policy asset allocation as well.")

Morningstar Article:  Morningstar State_of_Retirement_Income_2025.pdf - Google Drive

EconoMe 2026 Presentation:  F. Vasquez EconoMe 2026 Final Slides.pdf - Google Drive

Testfolio Golden Ratio w/CPI-based withdrawals:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Testfolio Golden Ratio w/percentage-based withdrawals:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio
Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

Episode 500 lands with a simple promise: fewer stories, more data, and portfolio choices that hold up when markets stop cooperating. We share a couple of nostalgic “Easter egg” extras from our back catalog, then dive into listener mail that hits the heart of modern portfolio construction for both individuals and institutions.

First, we tackle a nonprofit investing question about moving from capital preservation to growth using a heavily value tilted stock mix. We break down what that allocation is really buying (small cap value, mid cap value, and a value lean in large caps), why it can shine over very long horizons, and why the same strategy can still test patience for a decade or more. If you’ve ever wondered how to balance expected return against real world tracking error, this section is for you.

Then we hit the big rant: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are not the inflation shield they’re marketed to be. We walk through the Wall Street Journal’s findings, the 2022 case study, and the bigger point that TIPS are still bonds with rate risk. We also talk about what has tended to help more in inflationary regimes, including commodities, value oriented equities, and managed futures, plus when a TIPS ladder might be a reasonable side tool.

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