Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Nicholas, Nathan and Lisa.  We discuss  how much gold is enough and how much is too much, why calculators disagree and the best ways to use them, and what “better” means when the future is uncertain. We also walk through a FIRE portfolio headed toward retirement and talk briefly about finding an advisor familiar with risk parity principles.

And before that, in our Queen Mary segment, we hear a Fairfax CASA story about how consistent advocacy supports kids in foster care.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Nicholas's Gold Analysis Link:  Plotting withdrawal rates, drawdowns, and returns for different risk parity portfolios - Google Sheets

Testfolio Golden Backtests:  testfol.io/?s=45IearFlQbV

Afford Anything Episode #618:  They Ran Out of Money. I Didn’t. Here’s Why

Afford Anything Risk Parity Portfolio Blueprint:  Afford Anything frank-vasquez-risk-parity-portfolio-BluePrint.pdf - Google Drive

Optimus Bill's Interview on Bigger Pockets Money:  The Decumulation Strategy After Hitting Financial Independence | Bill Yount

Optimus Bill on Catching Up to FI:  Founder of 'Catching Up to FI' Just Hit Financial Independence, Now What? | Bill Yount | 196

Optimus Bill's Financial Advisor:  Kardinal Financial — Flat Fee & Fee-Only Financial Advisor Bryan Minogue | Madison, WI

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

A backtest can make almost any portfolio look brilliant, especially when one tweak “wins” by a fraction of a percent. We dig into one of the most common examples: gold allocation in a risk parity portfolio. If PortfolioCharts shows 20 to 25 percent gold beating 10 to 15 percent for safe withdrawal rate, should you follow the numbers or trust your nerves? We explain where the 10 to 15 percent “sweet spot” comes from, why tiny gold slices rarely matter, and how overfitting turns a clean chart into a fragile plan.

From there we zoom out to the real skill: comparing imperfect portfolios without pretending the future will match the past. I share why you should use multiple calculators and multiple datasets, how start dates can change results, and why swapping managed futures, commodities, and gold can flip the outcome. The point is not a magic formula, it is a durable range of allocations that survives uncertainty and keeps sequence of returns risk from wrecking your retirement.

We also tackle a detailed FIRE email from a 45-year-old aiming to retire in about five years. We talk expense tracking as the foundation of retirement planning, why liquid assets matter more than net worth, and how to upgrade diversification with Treasury bonds rather than corporate-heavy bond funds. Finally, we cover inflation protection realities, including why TIPS can still drop in a rate shock and why managed futures often behave differently when inflation spikes.

If you found this useful, subscribe, share it with a friend planning retirement, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find Risk Parity Radio.
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In this episode we answer emails from Lee, Leo, Tony, and Samuel.  We revel in Lee's generosity and discuss why we hold gold and treasuries, why recent performance should not drive allocation changes and common amateur investor fallacies, how to think about diversification when you invest outside the US, and how to think about correlations in a four quadrant model.

And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

David Stein Interview:  How to Think Clearly About Money Without Obsessing Over It with David Stein | White Coat Investor

Portfolio Charts International Portfolios Analysis:  What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

Many Happy Returns Podcast with Tyler #!:  Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts - Many Happy Returns

Many Happy Returns Podcast with Tyler #2:  How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts - Many Happy Returns

Claudia Moise Paper with US Treasuries Correlation Data:  Flights to Safety, Volatility Risk, and Monetary Policy by Claudia E. Moise :: SSRN

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summaries:

Gold is up, bonds are weird, and everyone suddenly wants to “swap something out” based on what happened last quarter. We slow that impulse down and get back to first principles: what job does each asset do in a long-term risk parity style portfolio, and what happens when you start making allocation decisions from a gut feeling about what looks overbought or hated right now?

We dig into a listener question about replacing gold inside the Golden Ratio Portfolio and explain why utilities are not a true substitute. Utilities can be useful, but they behave like stocks more than people admit, and they often carry interest-rate sensitivity that overlaps with bonds. If you want something that behaves more like gold’s diversifying role, we talk through what characteristics matter most, including low correlation to both stocks and bonds, and why managed futures is the more logical comparison. Along the way, we call out the common traps that wreck DIY portfolios: cherry-picked dates, short-term volatility panic, and the “crystal ball” mindset that quietly turns investing into trading.

For our non-US listeners, we tackle how being based in the UK or investing in pound sterling can change implementation details without changing the big picture goal. We discuss currency risk, home-country bias, why US equities still matter for global exposure, and the tough question of whether your bond ballast should be in local currency, US dollars, or a mix. Then we answer a deep question about correlations: why stock-bond correlation is not random, how it shifts across macro regimes, and why treasuries tend to deliver negative correlation when it matters most, during recessions.

We close with weekly portfolio performance across our sample portfolios and why the most disciplined move is often to do nothing.
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In this episode we answer emails from TJ, John and Optimus Bill.  We discuss TJ's modified Golden Ratio portfolio and backtests, maximizing withdrawals with flexibility, ZROZ vs. TLT simulated leverage, gambling problems, intermediate accumulation to pay down a mortgage, and assorted allocations questions about mid-caps and other funds.

We also talk about our Fairfax CASA fundraiser in our Queen Mary segment and a recent Catching Up to FI presentation at the end.

Links:

Links:
Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA
TJ's Portfolio:  testfol.io/?s=gJEgezdqVdy

Portfolio Charts Risk Parity style Accumulation Article:  Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio Charts

Risk Parity Chronicles ZROZ vs. TLT Analysis:  Bond Allocation Sizing - Google Sheets

Risk Parity Chronicles KBWP Article:  The Search for a Low-Beta Equity Unicorn - by Justin

Catching Up to FI Presentation:  Catching Up To FI Illinois/Wisconsin Meeting Presentation - YouTube

Catching Up to FI Presentation Slides:  The_Risk_Parity_Mission for Catching Up To FI.pdf - Google Drive

Catching Up to FI Presentation Summary Video:  Catching Up To FI Risk Parity Portfolios Meeting and Presentation.mp4 - Google Drive

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
A listener writes from overseas with a situation that strips retirement down to the essentials: no pension, no Social Security “backup plan,” and a real need to get the portfolio right. We walk through his modified Golden Ratio style allocation using growth and value funds, small-cap value tilts, long-duration Treasury strips, gold, and alternatives like DBMF, then talk about what matters more than a pretty spreadsheet: whether you can live with the drawdowns and keep the plan steady for decades.

From there we get practical about retirement withdrawals and the assumptions hiding underneath them. We explain why a 5.5% withdrawal rate can be realistic when you pair it with flexible rules like a floor and ceiling approach, and why “inflation” is not one number that applies to everyone. If you’re living abroad, spending in another currency, or even willing to relocate, your personal inflation experience can diverge from CPI, which changes how you should think about risk, resilience, and what flexibility is worth.

We also tackle the investor temptations that never seem to go away: debating ZROZ versus TLT, obsessing over duration ratios, and tinkering with allocations when the market gets loud. We share a simple constraint that helps many DIY investors stay sane: build a small sandbox for experiments so your core portfolio stays intact. We finish with an intermediate accumulation question about investing toward a future mortgage payoff, plus a clear framework for why splitting short and long Treasurys can be useful, and why international diversification often shows up as currency exposure in modern markets. Subscribe, share this with a friend who’s rebuilding their portfolio, and leave a review with the withdrawal rate question you’re trying to answer.

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In this episode we answer emails from Optimus Bill, Mark and Ryan.  We discuss donor advised fund sponsor Daffy and a strips fund portfolio substitution, the challenges of figuring out accumulation without getting caught up in chasing shiny objects and magic investing buttons, and discuss commercial risk parity funds and why they probably won't work for your goals.  Errata:  I said "Mark" when I meant "Michael"  Mauboussin.

And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Catching Up To FI Podcast with Daffy:  A Donor-Advised Fund For You (Daffy): Democratizing Philanthropy for Everyone | Adam Nash | 200

White Coat Investor Article:  150 Investment Portfolio Examples | White Coat Investor

Infinite Loops Podcast with Jim O'Shaughnessy and Cliff Asness:  Surviving the Meme Stock Bubble | Cliff Asness

ETF Slop Video:  The Rise of ETF Slop

Sample Portfolio Idea for Mark:  https://testfol.io/?s=flOaQQOXaH4

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A community gift turns into a movement: we celebrate more than $13,000 raised for Fairfax CASA and announce a surprise $20,000 match, then open the books on how donor-advised funds make generosity simpler, cheaper, and more strategic. From flat-fee platforms to custom portfolios and social giving, we share how to build a micro-foundation that aligns your values with long-term impact.

Then we zoom out to the decisions that actually move the needle. Forget the hunt for a magic fund—macro allocation drives results. For savers 20-plus years from retirement, we unpack a clean, high-conviction approach: 100% equities with a two-fund core that pairs large-cap growth with small-cap value for balanced offense. We explain why investors underperform their own holdings, how to avoid shiny-object drift, and the simple rules that keep compounding on track.

Curious about adding more “oomph” without reckless leverage? We walk through using Treasury Strips like ZROZ to amplify bond duration and free space for equities or gold. We also answer a big question: do risk parity ETFs solve the problem? They exist, but most are built for elegant theory, not your actual goals—be it maximum accumulation or higher safe withdrawal rates. For families who want one-ticket simplicity, we highlight how long-standing workhorses like Vanguard Wellington or Wellesley can deliver steady spending without complex overlays or buckets.

We close with a brisk market recap, why alternatives like managed futures can shine during turbulence, and the habit that consistently wins: do nothing when your plan is sound. 
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In this episode we answer emails from Connor, Zachary and Brian.  We discuss fund selection, doing the Big Law dance, portfolio construction basics and analyzing alternatives, and a partial retirement drawdown scenario involving early withdrawals, avoiding temptations to market time based on recent performances and funding a vacation property with a dedicated portfolio.

But first we thank donors supporting Fairfax CASA and share Jillian Johnsrud’s moving story about adoption, foster care, and how a steadfast CASA changed her kids’ lives.

Links:
Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

"Retire Often" by Jillian Johnsrud:  Book | Retire Often

Bridgewater Paper Describing the Four Quadrant Model:  Microsoft Word - 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc

Blog Article Describing Risk Parity Principles and the Four Quadrant Model:  15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiS

Video Describing Correlations of Alternatives (start timestamp 1:10): iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF Update with Andrew Beer | January 2026

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:  

A single constant can change a child’s life. That’s the heart of Jillian Johnsrud’s adoption and CASA story, where a determined CASA volunteer carried the full thread of her kids’ journey through seven case managers and years of upheaval. We open with gratitude for Fairfax CASA donors and a candid look at what Court Appointed Special Advocates really do: show up, remember, advocate, and persist in an unreasonably hard job that needs every ounce of support we can give.

From there we pivot to the questions you care about. We unpack why SCHG works fine as a large cap growth sleeve and then dive into a pragmatic guide to risk parity. Using a four-quadrant map of growth and inflation, we explain how to pair equities with long-term Treasuries, gold, and managed futures to raise safe withdrawal rates without pretending to predict the future. You’ll hear how uncorrelated return streams and disciplined rebalancing—Shannon’s Demon in action—turn volatility into a feature, not a bug. We also draw a bright line between true diversifiers and crowded “alts” that secretly track stocks.

We get tactical: how to treat accounts as one portfolio while keeping extra liquidity in taxable during a low-stress, lower-income phase; when to tax-gain harvest; and why tilting heavily into whatever just outperformed (gold now, bonds avoided) is classic recency bias. For those juggling work and life pivots, Frank shares hard-won Big Law advice: build stamina, communicate clearly, be relentlessly reliable, and stay curious as practice areas shift. Finally, we brainstorm a small, dedicated portfolio to fund a shared family vacation home, and why this sandbox is perfect for testing a slightly higher equity mix you can always top up.

If this resonates, help us amplify the work of Fairfax CASA, then subscribe, share the episode with a friend who’s rethinking their allocation, and leave a quick review so more DIY investors can find the show. Your support keeps the conversation smart, practical, and focused on what actually works.
Support the show