Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Tim, Avid Listener, and Aaron.  We discuss bond allocation in an intermediate accumulation Golden Butterfly style portfolios, the follies of fixating on fund or ticker symbol returns instead of the purpose of an asset in a portfolio,  and the follies of holding too much in cash.

And we discuss our Top of the T-shirt Campaign (Part Deux!) for the Father McKenna Center.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Analysis of TLT, MBB and SPY:  Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio

Analysis of gold royalty companies:  Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio

Liz Ann Sonders interview of Keith McCullough:  What Happens After Peak Inflation? (With Keith McCullough) | Charles Schwab

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Chasing a higher yield can feel like progress, but what if it is quietly breaking your portfolio? We take on three listener questions that all circle the same core problem: fund shopping without a framework. From a Golden Butterfly style intermediate-term risk parity portfolio stuck with a limited 401k bond menu, to the temptation to use stable value funds, Roth space, and asset swaps to “fix” taxes, we talk through what matters most when your goal is steady accumulation for a real-world timeline like three to seven years.

Next we get blunt about substitutes. Mortgage-backed securities ETFs may look like a better bond deal on paper, and gold royalty companies may look like “gold with higher returns,” but risk parity investing is not built by grabbing the flashiest ticker. We explain the four quadrant model and why each sleeve has a job: stocks for long-run growth, Treasury bonds as recession insurance that can be rebalanced when equities drop, and alternatives like gold or managed futures for low correlation during inflationary or stagflationary shocks. The right question is not “what returned more,” but “what will behave the way I need when the economic weather turns.”

We also address a popular habit that masquerades as investing: moving cash between HYSAs, money markets, and short-term funds to optimize yield. If tiny rate differences feel meaningful, it may be a sign you are holding too much cash and taking on cash drag over the long run. We close with our weekly portfolio reviews across the eight sample portfolios and a reminder that nobody knows what markets will do next, so a sturdy process matters more than predictions.

If this helps, subscribe, share the episode with a fellow DIY investor, and leave a review so more people can find Risk Parity Radio.

Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Michael, Raphy, and Roman.  We discuss using a short-term SPIA as a bridge before Social Security and why it probably doesn't matter one way or the other if you are even a little over-saved, and how much flexibility a well-funded risk parity portfolio can really provide. We also tackle covered calls, dividend and income fund hype, and why portfolio design starts with asset classes, taxes, and drawdown tolerance rather than chasing tickers.  We also discuss the real differences between more and less aggressive risk parity style portfolio on an efficient frontier.

Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Ben Felix on Covered Calls (one of several videos):  Covered Calls: What People (Still) Get Wrong

Comparison of ADX with Common Index Funds:  Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio

Ben Felix on Dividend Investing:  The Irrelevance of Dividends

Afford Anything Episode #618:  They Ran Out of Money. I Didn’t. Here’s Why.

Afford Anything Risk Parity Portfolio Blueprint:  Afford Anything frank-vasquez-risk-parity-portfolio-BluePrint.pdf - Google Drive

Comparison of Golden Butterfly and Roman's Modification:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A five-year annuity that throws off real cash flow can look almost too good to be true, especially when you’re trying to retire before Social Security and Medicare. We dig into a listener’s plan to leave IT at 55 with a $175,000 budget and a risk parity style portfolio, then pressure-test the idea of using a short-term period-certain SPIA as a “pension bridge” to reduce early sequence of returns stress. The big lens we keep coming back to is proportionality: if the annuity is under 10% of the portfolio, it behaves a lot like a cash pile, CD ladder, or bond ladder and may not meaningfully change the long-run plan, but it can change how you sleep at night.

From there, we shift into options and “extra income” strategies. We break down why covered calls often cap upside and can reduce long-term total return, and we draw a bright line between that and riskier approaches like selling puts, where rare crashes can cause huge losses. If you’re going to trade at all in retirement accounts, we argue for a simple discipline: don’t obsess over what you might make, calculate what you could lose, then size it so it can’t wreck your lifestyle.

We also take on dividend-focused closed-end funds and the lure of shiny tickers. The message is blunt: the first word after income is taxes, and good retirement investing starts with asset classes, tax location, and drawdown tolerance, not fund-of-the-week marketing. We close with a listener’s Golden Butterfly tweaks and what higher withdrawal rates really cost in drawdowns and ulcer index stress. Subscribe, share this with a friend planning early retirement, and leave a review with your biggest question about bridging the years before Social Security.

Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Wilson, Tim, and John.  We discuss why life insurance products are not magical perpetual motion machines that make your portfolios go faster, why insurance contracts cannot outperform the same underlying investments once costs and commissions are included, and how insurance marketers mislead the public with biased studies. We also a listener's musical tastes and answer an I Bonds allocation question.

And we discuss our Top of the T-shirt Campaign (Part Deux!) for the Father McKenna Center.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Wilson's First Link to Insurance Marketing Materials:  WBC-Whitepaper-Integrating-Whole-Life-Insurance-into-a-Retirement-Income-Plan-Emphasis-on-Cash-Value-as-a-Volatility-Buffer-Asset.pdf

Wilson's Second Link to Insurance Marketing Materials:  Benefits of integrating insurance products into a retirement plan (pdf)

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Whole life insurance gets marketed like a magic third thing: safer than stocks, better than bonds, and somehow able to “buffer” retirement withdrawals when markets drop. We slow that claim down and look at what it really is: an insurance contract with costs, commissions, and built-in friction that has to come out of your return somewhere.

We talk through why incentives matter so much in the financial services industry, especially when the person advising you also gets paid to sell permanent life insurance. Then we use a simple mental model, the first law of thermodynamics, to explain why inserting a contract between you and the underlying investments cannot increase performance. If an insurance company invests your premiums in conservative assets, the most you can get back is what those assets earn minus the policy’s expenses, insurance charges, and sales costs.

Next, we show how the sales math often works: bury the assumptions, headline the results. We break down the kinds of inputs that can make a Monte Carlo analysis or a 4% rule chart look scary on purpose, including inflated fees, unrealistic retirement tax brackets, unnecessary term insurance choices, and conservative forward return “crystal ball” projections. Frank also shares his own whole life policy numbers as a real-world reference point.

We close with a listener question on I Bonds versus Treasury bond ETFs, a straightforward take on tax location and allocation choices, and our weekly portfolio review across the sample risk parity portfolios. If you find this useful, subscribe, share the episode with a DIY investor, and leave a rating and review.

Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Peter, Alejandro, and Anderson.  We discuss retiring early and related family, work and community considerations, various portfolio and tax considerations and gambling problems, AI-driven portfolio tweaking, when simplicity applies, and share a fast way to summarize old episodes with NotebookLM.   And reference our Top of the T-shirt Campaign (Part Deux!) for the Father McKenna Center.

Links: 

Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

NotebookLM Summary of Chad's Question from Episode 478 -- "Mastering Portfolio Distributions":  NotebookLM - Portfolio Distribution Mechanics

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Quitting a high-paying job sounds like a math problem until you try living inside the decision. We hear from a 37-year-old parent with $1.3 million invested, a paid-off home, and a growing sense that learning about early retirement has made work feel unbearable. We walk through what those numbers actually support, why a 5% withdrawal rate can look fine on a spreadsheet but feel risky for a young family, and why expenses often rise as kids move toward the teen years and college. Our goal is to replace vague fear with concrete planning and a bigger, more realistic buffer.

From there we get tactical: how to think about asset allocation as one unified portfolio across taxable and retirement accounts, how tax efficiency should influence what goes where, and what options exist for accessing retirement money earlier than 59.5. We dig into Roth conversion timing, and we clear up a major misconception about 72(t) distributions by explaining how splitting IRAs can make the tool far more flexible than people assume.

Then we zoom out to portfolio construction. We explain why many formal “risk parity” or Ray Dalio all-weather style proposals end up bond-heavy, why that design often expects leverage, and why our retirement-oriented approach favors diversified building blocks like equities, Treasury bonds as recession insurance, gold, and managed futures. We also answer two more emails: one on using Google NotebookLM to generate a visual summary of rebalancing, and another on leveraged ETFs, AI recommendations, and moving-average trading rules, including why complexity can create tax headaches and ugly drawdowns.

If you got value from this, subscribe, share the show with a friend who is rebuilding their plan, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find Risk Parity Radio.

Support the show

In this episode we first kick off the Top of the T-Shirt Campaign Part Deux (!) for the Father McKenna Center and explain why matching funds, donated resources, and volunteers make every dollar go further. Then we answer emails from Aaron, Hostile Witness, and Jenzo.  We discuss improving on the Permanent Portfolio , managed futures, leverage, drawdowns, and why we prefer diversification over CAPE-wearing Sonias.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation):  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Don's Work at the Father McKenna Center:  Ignatian Volunteer: Don

Annie's Work and the Father McKenna Center:  Jesuit Volunteer Corps: Annie

Aaron's Portfolio Charts Article Reference:  What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

Jenzo's Portfolio Link (2025):  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Jenzo's Crystal Ball Link (Research Affiliates):  Asset Allocation

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

A listener asks a deceptively simple question: if you could add just one thing to a well-built retirement portfolio, what would it be and what would you cut to make room? That question takes us from charitable giving to portfolio construction, because both are really about the same goal: getting more real-world result per unit of effort, risk, or dollars.

We start by launching this year’s Top of the T-Shirt campaign supporting the Father McKenna Center in Washington, DC. Two anonymous listeners have already pledged matching funds, and we break down why this charity “punches above its weight” through leverage: donated space, in-kind grocery support that includes fresh food, and a huge volunteer base that keeps overhead low. If you care about effective philanthropy, this is a concrete look at how structure and incentives can multiply impact.

Then we move into listener mail on retirement portfolio design, including a modified Permanent Portfolio aimed at improving safe withdrawal rate and reducing cash drag. We explain what changes help and why, then give our one-asset-class answer: managed futures, funded by trimming gold. We also respond to an aggressive 75% stocks and 25% gold allocation, discuss drawdowns and factor tilts like small cap value, and talk through leveraged “stacked” funds. Finally, we address valuation-based “crystal ball” forecasts and why we’d rather diversify across equity styles and true diversifiers than try to time markets.

If this mix of risk parity investing, retirement income strategy, and practical diversification helps you think more clearly, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review where you listen.

Support the show