Risk Parity Radio

In this episode, we share big news from our Fairfax CASA work and what your generosity has made possible.  Then we pivot to an email from Todd and go on a deep dive on motivational speakers and what actually helps people change.  In a van.  Down by the RIVER.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Acres of Diamonds:  Acres of Diamonds Audiobook | Russell H. Conwell | Full

The Strangest Secret:  The Strangest Secret Earl Nightingale Conant 1950's Original FULL

Jim Rohn "Walk Away":  Walk Away From The 97 Percent - Jim Rohn

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

A “major award” is nice, but the real win is what happens when a community turns attention into action. We start by sharing personal news from our work with Fairfax CASA and a recognition that belongs to all of you as much as it belongs to us: listeners of the show have now raised over $66,000 to support child advocacy for kids navigating the court system after abuse or neglect. We talk about why that mission matters, and why linking money to meaning can keep your long-term plan steady when markets and life get noisy.

Then we pivot hard into a listener question that lets me do what I love: trace the actual history of motivational speakers. We go from Ben Franklin and the self-made habit mindset, through American self-reliance, transcendentalism, traveling lectures, and “Acres of Diamonds,” all the way to the modern personal development industry. Along the way, we separate practical tools from magical thinking, including research on why “manifesting” can backfire by reducing effort. The anchor takeaway is Jim Rohn’s line I keep coming back to: affirmation without discipline is the beginning of delusion.

We close with the weekly risk parity portfolio review and November distributions for eight sample portfolios, covering market moves across the S&P 500, NASDAQ, small cap value, long Treasuries, gold, commodities, and managed futures. If you like asset allocation, diversification, rebalancing, withdrawal rate planning, and a no-hype approach to DIY investing, you’ll have plenty to dig into here. Subscribe, share this with a friend who needs a reset, and leave a review so more long-term investors can find the show.
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This is the follow-up episode to the "Jumping the Shark" segment in Episode 532 that we promised to create (but wish we didn't have to).  It discusses the fallacies and misrepresentations in the Early Retirement Now blog and its recent posts about Risk Parity Radio.  Due to their defamatory nature and evidence of malicious intent, and for other legal reasons, we will not be republishing those posts. 

We will return to our regularly scheduled programming in the next episode.  Thank you for your patience.

Links:

October 10, 2022 ERN Toolbox Analysis of Risk Parity-Style Portfolio:  ERN Toolbox Analysis of RP Portfolio 10-10-2022.jpg - Google Drive

October 10, 2022 ERN Toolbox Analysis of 75/25 Portfolio:  ERN Toolbox Analysis of 75-25 Portfolio 10-10-2022.jpg - Google Drive

Accompanying Slides:  2022-10-10 ERN Toolbox Portfolio Comparison Analysis.pdf - Google Drive

Accompanying Video on Comparative Analysis:  The Real ERN Toolbox Analysis Comparing A Risk Parity Portfolio With A 75/25 Portfolio

EconoMe 2025 Presentation:  F. Vasquez EconoMe 2025 Presentation.pdf - Google Drive

Video re Biased Skepticism Generally on ERN Blog:  Episode 532 Bonus: Biased Skepticism and Patterns of Deception In the FI Blogosphere

Report on Fallacies and Misrepresentations:  ERNs 72 Fallacies, Mispresentations and Insults In Blog Posts About Risk Parity Radio.pdf - Google Drive

Accompanying Slide Deck 1:  Slide Summary 1 of Blog Post Fallacies and Misrepresentations.pdf - Google Drive

Accompanying Slide Deck 2:  Slide Summary 2 of Blog Post Fallacies and Misrepresentations.pdf - Google Drive

Accompanying Video on 72 Fallacies and Misrepresentations:   How Early Retirement Now Wields Big Fallacies And Insults To Promote Itself At The Expense Of Others

Large Cap Growth/Small Cap Value vs. S&P 500 Comparison:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

2022 Comparison -- RP Portfolios vs. 75/25:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

The Fundamental Problems with Overly Conservative Planning Assumptions:  The Crushing Cost of Conservative Retirement Planning - The Best Interest

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

A retirement portfolio argument gets ugly fast when people stop debating results and start debating labels. We pull the conversation back to the one question that matters for real retirees: what survives the worst historical sequences of returns while supporting a meaningful withdrawal rate?

We walk through the history behind the Early Retirement Now “toolbox” and revisit the author’s own 2022 backtest of a risk parity style allocation that blends broad US stocks, small cap value exposure, Treasury bonds, and gold. Using the same rules and the same field of play, that analysis shows a materially higher safe withdrawal rate than a simple 75/25 stock bond portfolio, especially around major market peaks where valuation risk and long drawdowns can break the 4% rule.

From there, we unpack how portfolio discussions go off the rails: straw man proxies for managed futures like DBMF, return assumptions that handicap diversifiers, cherry picked time windows that erase modern gold behavior, and goalpost shifting that swaps “safe withdrawal rate” for “bull market returns” midstream. We also explain why systematic factor tilting is not stock picking, and how you can sanity check claims with replicable backtesting across multiple tools, including Testfolio.

If you care about retirement planning, safe withdrawal rates, and sequence risk, this is a practical roadmap for spotting bad modeling before it costs you years of underspending and wasted time dealing with Biased Skeptics and dishonest rhetoric.
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In this episode we address a cornucopia of topics in emails from Alex, Superb Diamond Range, and Mark.  We discuss the Risk Parity Radio Reddit forum started by listener Adrian, an OPTRA-inspired portfolio with lower leverage and real-world tax location choices, extending managed futures history for better portfolio testing and expectations, why covered call ETFs usually change payouts more than outcomes, using OpenSocialsecurity.com to model claiming strategies, a simple UK-focused risk parity allocation and how to think about equity weight and value tilt, why fees matter less than people think in many modern ETF choices, withdrawal order and Roth conversions as situation-specific decisions that change every year, why good tax advice can add more value than investment tweaks.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Risk Parity Radio Reddit Forum (courtesy Adrian):  riskparityradio

Alex's Portfolio (paywall):  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Extending Managed Futures Data back to 1971:  I reconstructed a trend-following return series back to 1971. Here is the methodology. : r/LETFs

One of a Series of Ben Felix Videos on Covered Call Funds: Covered Calls: What People (Still) Get Wrong

Open Social Security:  Open Social Security: Free, Open-Source Social Security Calculator

Superb Diamond Range YouTube Channel:  Superb Diamond Range Podcast - YouTube

Mark's Bigger Pockets Interview:  Tax Efficient Ways to Withdraw Money in Early Retirement

Mark's Slide Presentation:  Alternatives to Sequential Drawdown - Google Slides

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:  

Most investing advice gets fuzzy right when you need it most: the moment you stop accumulating and start living off your portfolio. We dig into real listener questions that force clean thinking about risk parity portfolio design, early retirement withdrawals, and the uncomfortable truth that taxes can matter more than the exact tickers you pick.

We start with a detailed listener build based on an OPTRA-style framework, including how they adjust leverage, blend stocks with bonds, gold, managed futures, and alternatives, and even work through tax location choices for brokerage versus IRA and 401(k) assets. That leads into a blunt conversation about covered call ETFs and other structured “income” products: what they can do, what they cannot do, and why so many shiny new ETFs are really just higher-fee packaging. We also share a valuable community resource for extending managed futures data for backtesting, plus a practical nod to OpenSocialsecurity.com for modeling claiming decisions.

Then we go deep on decumulation strategy. There is no single correct “withdrawal order” because your best move depends on your tax brackets, deductions, healthcare costs, income mix, and what changes year to year. We explain why rigid rules of thumb break, why fourth-quarter tax planning matters, and why paying for strong tax advice can produce more real “alpha” than endlessly tinkering with portfolio allocations.

We wrap with our weekly review of market performance and the eight sample portfolios, highlighting how diversification shows up when different assets lead and lag. Subscribe, share this with a friend who’s planning retirement, and leave a review with the question you want us to tackle next.
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In this episode we answer emails from Multi-family Investor, Nathan, and John.  We discuss dual momentum strategies, equity glide paths and the Bengen, Pfau, and Kitces research, letting equity drift higher to reduce rebalancing and transactions, managed futures proxy limits and why commodities are imperfect stand ins, and SDMF versus DBMF.

Links:

Dual Momentum Explanation Video:  DUAL MOMENTUM | Momentum Trading Strategy by Gary Antonacci

Portfolio Visualizer Dual Momentum Analysis Page:  Test Tactical Allocation Models

BestFolio YouTube Channel: BestFolio - YouTube

Bengen Book:  Bill Bengen’s New Book | A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More.

John's Summary of Risk Parity Radio Over The Years:  Episode 445: "Funny How" With Listener Humor, Rebalancing Leveraged Funds, And CTA | Risk Parity Radio

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Dual momentum and risk parity can look strangely similar in a backtest chart, right up until you try to live with one of them in a real retirement portfolio. We take three listener emails and use them to pressure test what matters most when you are optimizing for sustainable spending, low stress execution, and fewer “gotchas” at tax time.

First, we react to a clever tactic: brokerage transfer bonuses and how, for large portfolios, account churn can act like an extra slice of return. Then we dig into the big question behind it all: dual momentum versus risk parity. We explain why we are skeptical of strategies that require frequent full portfolio shifts in taxable accounts, how turnover can trigger short term capital gains, and why the missing piece for many people is a simple dual momentum ETF that could handle the trading inside the fund.

Next we shift to equity glide paths and sequence of returns risk. We connect classic retirement research from Bengen, Pfau, and Kitces to the risk parity mindset and talk through what the “equity versus non equity” split is really doing for a safe withdrawal rate. We also share a practical implementation idea: sometimes the best glide path is simply letting equities drift higher over time so you trade less.

We wrap with managed futures logistics, including the pre 1986 proxy problem and a practical update on SDMF versus DBMF, from swaps and potential tax efficiency to liquidity and costs that do not always show up in the expense ratio. If this helps, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave us a review where you listen.

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In this episode we answer emails from Dave, Bob, and Waldo.  We discuss how Monte Carlo simulations differ depending on their basis and how they differ from historical back-tests, the problem of trusting retirement calculators without understanding the assumptions inside them and choosing the correct assumptions, why the Golden Ratio portfolio is built for bad decades, and why a scary brokerage warning screen is often just strategic butt covering and marketing.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Jesse Cramer Best Interest Podcast Episode 134:  Even Financial Advisors Misunderstand Monte Carlo Retirement Analysis (E134)

Yours Truly on Best Interest Podcast:  Are You Hoarding, Hustling, or Harvesting in Retirement? - E144
The Four Quadrant Model Exquisitely Explained With Illustrations Inspired By Vermeer:  The Four Quadrant Wealth Atlas.pdf - Google Drive

Four Quadrant Model Video:  Understanding Correlations and Diversification Using the Four Quadrant Model

Minimize Your Miss Article About The Golden Ratio Portfolio:  Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio Charts
Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

One retirement tool says you’re fine. Another says you’re headed for disaster. If you’ve ever run a backtest, then hit “Monte Carlo” and watched your plan implode, we get why that feels like whiplash and we also know it’s usually explainable.

We walk through a listener’s withdrawal-rate question and break down the real reason these results diverge: the construction of the simulation. We explain parameterized Monte Carlo (assumed returns and standard deviation on a normal distribution) versus historical Monte Carlo (scrambled real return data), why fat tails and skewness matter, and how limited datasets for assets like international stocks or REITs can quietly distort the numbers. We also share a simple rule for better decision-making: stop hunting for a “perfect” portfolio in a calculator and start comparing Portfolio A to Portfolio B across multiple tools until the relative story stays consistent.

From there, we connect the math to portfolio design. We talk about why worst-case decades drive safe withdrawal rate research, why a decumulation portfolio has different goals than a stock-heavy accumulation portfolio, and how the Golden Ratio approach fits into a four quadrant model across inflation and growth regimes. Then we tackle a very practical worry: Fidelity’s scary designated investments agreement screen when buying a gold ETF like GLDM and why that warning is often more about liability and business model than unique risk.

If you find this helpful, subscribe so you don’t miss the weekly portfolio reviews, share it with a friend who’s modeling retirement, and leave us a rating and review so more DIY investors can find the show.

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