Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Matt, Michael, Stephen and Al.  We discuss expanding the spending muscle in retirement, the generosity of our listeners, more on the Four Quadrant model and its permutations, and how we stay connected to listeners without inhabiting the conference circuit.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Cool Number Nerd Video:  Fibonacci Numbers hidden in the Mandelbrot Set - Numberphile

MiB Podcast Episode:  Masters in Business: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud - Bloomberg

The Dude's Link re Quadrants and Assets:   Structural Diversification for All Seasons - ReSolve Asset Management (investresolve.com)

Hedgeye Asset Chart:  Hedgeye Four Quadrant Model Best and Worst Assets.pdf - Google Drive

Bloomberg Inflation Presentation:  Bloomberg Investing in Inflationary Regimes Presentation.pdf - Google Drive

Listener Essay on Four Quadrant Model:  15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiS

Claudia Moise Paper with US Treasuries Correlation Data:  Flights to Safety, Volatility Risk, and Monetary Policy by Claudia E. Moise :: SSRN

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Hoarding can look a lot like “being responsible,” especially right before retirement when every headline makes the future feel fragile. We take a listener’s detailed numbers and use them to talk about a problem we see all the time: spending that never catches up with the life you actually want. If your future expenses are likely to decline in real terms, your personal inflation rate may be lower than CPI, and a fixed rule can quietly push you into over-saving instead of living. We share a simple, practical idea for breaking that pattern: create a visible spending bucket, spend intentionally, then review what brought real value and what didn’t. 

Then we shift into a deep question from a data-driven listener who tried to test Bridgewater’s four quadrant model using growth and inflation data. We explain why these relationships are probabilistic, why short time frames can look like a noisy blob, and where to look for research that connects macro regimes to asset returns. Along the way we revisit the roles different diversifiers can play in a risk parity portfolio: Treasury bonds as recession insurance, managed futures and commodities for ugly inflation shocks, and gold as a strange but useful diversifier when the world gets weird. 

We wrap with our weekly portfolio review and a quick read on what’s been working lately across stocks, small cap value, bonds, gold, REITs, commodities and managed futures, including results from our sample portfolios and a few leveraged experiments. If you like practical asset allocation, retirement withdrawal strategy, and plainspoken investing conversations with some humor mixed in, hit play, then subscribe, share the show, and leave a review so more do-it-yourself investors can find it.
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In this episode we answer emails from Dustin, Optimus Bill, Vaibhav, and Morrie.  We discuss how to vet a new "shiny object" ETF, why trying to "fix" target date funds is likely to be a fools' errand as their proper use is extremely limited, and transitioning into a retirement drawdown portfolio without obsessing over recent market highs.

In our Queen Mary segment, we also provide a Fairfax CASA fundraiser update and explain how your donations support foster care advocacy.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Morningstar Analysis of LCOW:  LCOW – Portfolio – Pacer S&P 500 Qul FCF Aristocrats ETF | Morningstar

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

A slick email promises “Quality” and “Aristocrats,” a backtest says it beat the market, and suddenly you are wondering if your portfolio is missing a magic ingredient. We slow that moment down and show you how to think like a process-driven investor instead of a headline-driven one. Starting with a listener question about a brand-new ETF, we walk through a simple evaluation method using Morningstar: check the expense ratio, identify the fund category, inspect the holdings, and compare it to cheaper index funds. The punchline is not about one ticker symbol, it is about learning to spot shiny-object marketing before it steals your time and returns.

From there we tackle a bigger theme: why so much financial media is engineered to keep “Level 2” investors chasing opinions and hopping from strategy to strategy. We talk about data mining, why a 10 to 15 year backtest can be deeply misleading, and what you should demand before believing any performance story. If you care about long-term portfolio design, the right order is asset allocation first, fund selection second, with low costs as a default unless something is truly different.

We also answer questions on target date funds, accumulation versus decumulation, and how real retirement planning gets messy across pre-tax, Roth, HSA, and taxable accounts. Finally, we address a common retirement fear: investing when “the market is high.” We explain why diversification changes that question, how different assets can carry the load at different times, and how to schedule a transition plan if moving all at once feels hard.

Subscribe for more no-nonsense portfolio talk, share this with a friend who keeps getting pitched “new” ETFs, and leave a review if the framework helps. If you can, donate to Fairfax CASA and help provide a steady advocate for children in foster care.

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In this episode we answer emails from Ronald, George, Jeff.  We celebrate episode 500 by sharing a few “Easter egg” resources, then jump into listener questions that cut through common investing myths. We discuss a portfolio for a non-profit, rant about TIPS with a Wall Street Journal article to back us up, and talk about various choices in withdrawal methods.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Rant Anthology Slides:  Risk Parity Radio Rants Anthology.pdf - Google Drive

Four Quadrant Video:  The Four Quadrant Model and the True Meaning of Diversification.mp4 - Google Drive

WSJ Article on TIPS:  TIPS_ Inflation-Protected Bonds Dont Help You When Inflation Is High - WSJ Copy.pdf - Google Drive

Bernstein TIPS Article:  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives ("A bond fund manager recently related to me his difficulty in figuring out the role of TIPS in his portfolios. After fumbling for a reply, I realized that he was right: like Social Security, they don’t occupy a formal slot in most folks’ asset allocation. . . . TIPS should be kept mentally separate from the policy asset allocation as well.")

Morningstar Article:  Morningstar State_of_Retirement_Income_2025.pdf - Google Drive

EconoMe 2026 Presentation:  F. Vasquez EconoMe 2026 Final Slides.pdf - Google Drive

Testfolio Golden Ratio w/CPI-based withdrawals:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Testfolio Golden Ratio w/percentage-based withdrawals:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio
Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

Episode 500 lands with a simple promise: fewer stories, more data, and portfolio choices that hold up when markets stop cooperating. We share a couple of nostalgic “Easter egg” extras from our back catalog, then dive into listener mail that hits the heart of modern portfolio construction for both individuals and institutions.

First, we tackle a nonprofit investing question about moving from capital preservation to growth using a heavily value tilted stock mix. We break down what that allocation is really buying (small cap value, mid cap value, and a value lean in large caps), why it can shine over very long horizons, and why the same strategy can still test patience for a decade or more. If you’ve ever wondered how to balance expected return against real world tracking error, this section is for you.

Then we hit the big rant: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are not the inflation shield they’re marketed to be. We walk through the Wall Street Journal’s findings, the 2022 case study, and the bigger point that TIPS are still bonds with rate risk. We also talk about what has tended to help more in inflationary regimes, including commodities, value oriented equities, and managed futures, plus when a TIPS ladder might be a reasonable side tool.

[Truncated due to character limits.]
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In this episode we answer emails from Jose, Luc and Sara.  We discuss using specific tax lots to reduce capital gains when reallocating, how the 0% long-term capital gains bracket works and why many land in the 15% bracket, where to hold gold like GLDM across IRAs and taxable accounts, turning off dividend reinvestment to simplify moves and build retirement cash, replacing total bond and international bond funds with Treasury funds like VGIT and VGLT,, why diversification and value exposure can improve safe withdrawal rate odds, supporting and encouraging college-age kids with clear expectations, and tools to model short retirements and scenarios.

We also celebrate a major fundraising milestone for Fairfax CASA and share a real story of how advocacy changes outcomes for teens in our Queen Mary segment.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Chris Corinthian EconoMe Presentation:  Chris Corinthian: How to Pay for College Without Student Loans

Jose's Portfolio Link:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio

Investopedia Capital Gains Taxes Article:  Capital Gains Tax: What It Is, How It Works, and Current Rates

Sara's Portfolio Analyses (from prior episode):  testfol.io/?s=htNZVoZOZn4

Portfolio Charts Withdrawal Rates Calculator:  Withdrawal Rates – Portfolio Charts

Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Tool:  Financial Goals
Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

$24,000 raised by listeners, plus a pledged $20,000 match, is the kind of number that stops you in your tracks and then makes you proud to be part of a community. We kick off with a Fairfax CASA update for Child Abuse Prevention Month and a powerful success story about three teen sisters, a young uncle who stepped up, and the CASA volunteer who became the one trusted voice the girls could confide in when everything felt chaotic.

Then we shift into what Risk Parity Radio does best: answering detailed listener emails with practical, step-by-step personal finance guidance. We dig into how to transition a Vanguard-style portfolio toward a risk parity retirement portfolio without detonating a capital gains tax bill, including how to sell specific tax lots, what the 0% long-term capital gains bracket really requires, and when “good enough” beats waiting for perfect. We also cover gold allocation in decumulation (including where GLDM can sit across IRAs and taxable accounts), why turning off dividend reinvestment can make withdrawals and rebalancing cleaner, and why Treasury bond funds like VGIT and VGLT can diversify equity risk better than credit-heavy bond mixes.

We also take a thoughtful detour into family finance: how much to help your kids with college while still protecting their drive and independence, how to have “the talk” about expectations, and ways to cut education costs without cutting opportunity. Finally, we revisit a short-term retirement runway plan and talk scenario testing, safe withdrawal rates, and modeling tools like Portfolio Charts, TestFol.io, and Portfolio Visualizer so you can stress-test risk, time horizon, and side income realistically.

If you found this helpful, subscribe, share the episode with a DIY investor friend, and leave a review so more people can find the show.
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In this episode we answer emails from Frank, Stephen (from Cincy), Jeff, and Sally.  We focus on a common retirement blind spot: once you are financially independent, portfolio tweaks matter less than the life choices you make with the time you have.  We also address those tweaks and then dig into HSA asset location traps, reflect on our listeners and our mission, and talk about our fundraiser for Fairfax CASA.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

Video About the Over-Saver Trap And How To Use Your Money To Improve Your Well-Being In Retirement:  RPR Episode 436 Illustrated: The Two Halves of Your Financial Life

The Four Quadrant Model Exquisitely Explained With Illustrations Inspired By Vermeer:  The Four Quadrant Wealth Atlas.pdf - Google Drive

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

You can do everything “right” financially and still miss the point of retirement. We kick off with a listener who is debt free, nearing retirement, sitting on substantial retirement accounts, and backed by a pension and rental income. The question on the surface is classic DIY investing: should the equity slice rise to 45%, should yield be reinvested, and when should a risk parity style portfolio transition happen? Our answer starts with the math, then quickly moves to what the math is trying to protect.

From there, we zoom in on practical asset allocation choices that matter for real portfolios: how much long-term Treasury bond exposure is too much, why intermediate Treasuries may be redundant next to long duration bonds, and why turning off dividend reinvestment can make retirement rebalancing cleaner. We also talk value-tilted ETFs like AVGV and related Avantis funds, including how “fund of funds” products can quietly overlap with holdings you already own and make your plan harder to manage.

Next, a second listener brings an under-discussed HSA twist. HSAs often get treated like a Roth IRA, but the inheritance rules can be punishing for non-spouse heirs, turning a tax-advantaged account into a one-year tax bomb. We walk through what that means for asset location, Roth conversions, and where aggressive investing belongs if you are tempted to take big swings. We wrap with our weekly market snapshot and the April distributions across the eight sample portfolios on the Risk Parity Radio site.

If you found this helpful, share it with a friend who is close to retirement, then subscribe and leave a quick review so more DIY investors can find the show.
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