Risk Parity Radio

• Episode 465: Working Through The Middle Muddle, Cool Animated Videos, And Analyzing Other Retirement Portfolios

  In this episode we answer emails from Arun, Neil, and Stephen.  We discuss intermediate accumulation portfolios, when you start needing bonds and being a good family man; favorite listener episodes #436 and #441, and an analysis of Thurman portfolios and what they are missing.  Links:Episode 436 Video Summary:   https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WQ1hvoLaX3hJL3DoLnaWsAxNBdOYFLB0/view?usp=sharingEpisode 441 Video Summary:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fHpBZCykn-UOXMarWKIMVX0tLG9-OEDa/view?usp=sharingRetirement Investment Advisors SEC Disclosure:  Microsoft Word - DRAFT 2 ADV 03.2025 PART 2-03.25.2025Thurman 10 Steps To Build Retirement Portfolio:  E-Book 10 Portfolio Steps v1.2024PortfolioLab Thurman Portfolio:  Randy Thurman All-Weather Retirement Portfolio | PortfoliosLabPortfolio Visualizer Analysis of Thurman Portfolios:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class AllocationBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Tired of vague investing advice that wilts when real life hits? We open the mailbag and get practical about three decisions most DIY investors face: rebalancing a mid-term portfolio, adding bonds before retirement, and whether a 100 percent stock allocation can actually work when you’re withdrawing. Along the way, we put a highly marketed “all-weather” retirement framework under the microscope and show why corporate bonds often fail when you need ballast most.We start with an intermediate-term goal: saving for a house in three to five years. Rather than forcing taxable rebalancing, we explain how to direct new contributions and dividends toward lagging sleeves to maintain balance while sidestepping taxes. Then we tackle bond placement for accumulators in their late 30s and early 40s: why Treasuries belong in traditional 401(k)s, why cost basis doesn’t matter inside retirement accounts, and when adding bonds is a sleep-aid rather than a must-have. Next, we confront the 100 percent stock question. If you intend to underspend and maximize terminal wealth, it can work. If you want higher sustainable withdrawals, diversification wins.The centerpiece: a head-to-head backtest of an “all-weather retirement” recipe built around corporate bonds and global equities versus a more balanced, risk-parity-inspired mix that includes Treasuries and a modest allocation to gold. The results highlight a core truth of sequence risk: smaller, shorter drawdowns can raise safe withdrawal rates and preserve flexibility. We also talk mindset—stop treating assets like sports teams. They’re tools: stocks for growth, Treasuries for defense, gold for inflation shocks. Set your stock percentage first, split growth and value, prefer Treasuries over corporates for hedging, consider 10–15 percent gold, and test your plan with Portfolio Visualizer, Portfolio Charts, Testfolio, and the Early Retirement Now toolkit.Life design matters too. For parents in the exhausting middle—toddler chaos, peak earnings, zero time—we share a simple playbook: cut low-yield work commitments, focus on small, memorable family moments, and accept this as a temporary storm. Build a portfolio that buys time, not stress, and let your money serve the life you want. Enjoy the conversation, and if it helps, subscribe, leave a review, and share this episode with a friend who’s balancing markets and midnight wake-ups.Support the show

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• Episode 464: More Fun With Leverage, Bad Advisor Incentives, Working With A Substandard 401k And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 7, 2025

  In this episode we answer emails from Dave, Isaiah, and Ian.  We discuss back-testing tools, revisit UPRO and leverage from the last episode, the inherent biases and incentives for retail financial advisors to recommend underspending and using underspending plans larded with window dressings, and revisit a limited 401k and a retirement scenario from Episodes 420 and 444.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterPortfolio Visualizer Backtester:  Backtest Portfolio Asset AllocationTestfolio Backtester:  testfol.ioBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Think your withdrawal rate is just a number? We dig into why the path matters more than the headline, showing how 0%, 3%, and 6% withdrawals change resilience without altering which portfolios dominate across different eras. Then we pull apart the leverage mirage: why 3x S&P funds can look unbeatable in calm runs yet suffer brutal volatility drag and catastrophic left tails when the decade turns against you. The goal isn’t fear—it’s sizing risk so you don’t bet your future on luck.We also wade into the psychology of advice. Even fee-only planners face incentives to keep clients underspending, leaning on cash-heavy buckets, retirement “paychecks,” and tidy jargon that soothes but often costs performance. If you’re wired for DIY, you’ll appreciate a finance-first approach: let evidence drive the allocation, not marketing hooks. We contrast retail comfort with institutional discipline and offer a practical way to align your plan with the results you actually want.For listeners wrestling with constrained 401k menus, we map out how to approximate risk parity using the levers that matter most: low-cost stock and core bond indexes, selective value tilts, and tax-aware placement. We touch Roth versus traditional choices when you’re in a low bracket, how to secure your FI core, and why continuing to work a decade after reaching FI might mean it’s time to spend more on life, not just accumulate more line items.We close with a sharp market rundown and performance across sample portfolios, from classic diversifiers to levered blends. If you want a clear-eyed, practical framework for withdrawals, leverage, advisor incentives, and building robust portfolios with imperfect tools, this conversation will sharpen your plan. If it resonates, follow the show, leave a review, and share it with a friend who needs a finance-first reset.Support the show

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• Episode 463: Pros And Cons of Leverage, Tax Buckets, Small Cap Value And Retirement Spending Frameworks

  In this episode we answer emails from Roman, Andrew and Iain.  We discuss the plusses and minuses of leverage, volatility drag, and how leverage interacts with diversification and withdrawals, general observation on tax optimization via account buckets, small cap value index funds and Avantis/DFA merits, and modelling annuities versus mandatory versus discretionary spending in retirement.LInks:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterBen Felix Leverage Video:  Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs)Leveraged ETFs Paper:  Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFsOptimized Portfolios Article/Website:  How To Beat the Market Using Leverage and Index InvestingJim Sandidge Chaos Theory Applied to Drawdowns:  RMJ081-ChaosAndRetirementSecurity.pdf"Buffet's Alpha" Paper:  Full article: Buffett’s AlphaNew Tax Planning In Early Retirement Book:  Amazon.com: Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirement: 9798999841599: Garrett, Cody, Mullaney, Sean: BooksMerriman Best IN Class ETF Selections:  Best ETFs 2025 | Merriman Financial Education FoundationBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ever wonder why leverage looks brilliant during bull markets but feels brutal the moment you start withdrawing cash? We break down the promise and pitfalls of adding leverage to diversified, risk parity-style portfolios, then show how the math of volatility drag and sequence risk can quietly erode safe withdrawal rates. It’s an honest tour of what works in accumulation, what breaks in retirement, and how to engineer a calmer path without surrendering all upside.We start with the straight talk: leverage and concentration are the two proven routes to outperformance, but only one of them can be paired safely with broad diversification. From hedge fund history to the “Aggressive 50/50” experiment, you’ll hear why high-octane blends can top the charts and then stall after deep losses, especially when distributions force selling at the worst times. We contrast that with return stacking and measured leverage, which aim for equity-like returns with better risk control, and we share practical tools—rebalancing discipline, cash buffers, and dynamic spending bands—to keep a drawdown portfolio intact.Taxes matter just as much as tickers. We walk through Roth vs traditional contributions, why present marginal rates and future flexibility drive the choice, and how to place bonds smartly across tax buckets. On the equity side, we revisit small cap value: why classic S&P 600 value exposure is solid, and how AVUV and DFA’s profitability filters can sharpen the factor without turning it into active guesswork. Then we turn to spending: build the plan around real expenses, not theoretical annuities. Set a durable floor for essentials, keep a flexible layer for the fun stuff, and consider partial annuitization later in life if longevity and peace of mind are worth the trade.Support the show

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• Episode 462: Creating Your Own Sample Portfolio, Asset Swaps With Cash, Low-Bar-Setting Financial Advisors, And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 31, 2025

  In this episode we answer emails from Jess, Phil and Scott.  We discuss an experience of setting up a sample RPR portfolio for one's self, using asset swaps to manage cash, and fun with the low bar standards and other inadequacies of many financial advisors.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterHow To Do An Asset Swap Video from Risk Parity Chronicles:  How to Do an Asset SwapBigger Pockets Money Test Risk Parity Style Portfolio:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)Excess Returns Podcast With Rick Ferri (forward to minute 49):  Most Never Escape Stage 3 | Rick Ferri on How You Can Beat the Complexity TrapBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Tired of being told that everything beyond a three-fund portfolio is “too hard”? We pull back the curtain on practical tools that make DIY investing simpler in practice, not smaller in ambition. Starting with a listener’s test portfolios, we show how hands-on experience beats theory, why diversification means loving today’s winners and tomorrow’s comebacks, and how to turn rebalancing into reliable cash flow.We go deep on asset location and the overlooked power of asset swaps. By “selling here, buying there,” you can keep your overall mix unchanged while moving ordinary income into tax-deferred accounts and positioning equities in taxable for qualified dividends and capital gains. If you’ve been parking big cash balances in a HYSA and wondering why your tax bill keeps creeping up, this segment is your blueprint for tax efficiency without extra risk.Then we tackle withdrawal rates with clear eyes. Many advisors still anchor to 3 percent for retirees in their 60s. We explain why diversified, risk parity style allocations can responsibly target closer to 5 percent over long horizons, especially when you harvest from strength. Case in point: trimming gold after a powerful run to fund November distributions across our sample portfolios. We share market snapshots, what’s leading and lagging, and how a rules-based process keeps emotion out of the driver’s seat.If you want an investing plan that funds a life—relationships, experiences, generosity—rather than an accounting hobby, this conversation is your on-ramp. Subscribe, share with a friend who needs a nudge to start that test portfolio, and leave a review telling us your target withdrawal rate and why.Support the show

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• Episode 461: Transitioning To Forever Plans, SCHD And Bitcoin, Our Purpose For Value, And When To Make Adjustments (Probably Never)

  In this episode we answer emails from Tyson, Patrick, and Shuchi.  We discuss the basics of transitioning, SCHD as a value fund choice, bitcoin vs. gold, why "only works for 30 years" is a fake problem, the difference between our use of value funds vs. Paul Merriman's, and when would me make adjustments to our plans in retirement.Links:Bigger Pockets Money Podcast #1:  The Secret to a 5% Safe Withdrawal Rate | Frank VasquezBigger Pockets Money Podcast #2:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)Morningstar Analysis of SCHD:  SCHD Stock - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF | MorningstarGolden Ratio Portfolio on Portfolio Charts:  Golden Ratio Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsRetirement Spending Calculator:  Retirement Spending – Portfolio ChartsDrawdowns Calculator:  Drawdowns – Portfolio ChartsMichael Batnick Critique of CAPE Ratio "Predictions":  Stocks Are More Expensive Than They Used to BeBreathless AI-Bot Summary:A plan that survives contact with the market looks different from the one you sketch on a napkin. We break down the 80 percent FI pivot—why shifting from an aggressive accumulation mix to a retirement-ready allocation a few years early can defuse sequence risk without surrendering growth—and show how to decide when to pull that lever without second-guessing every blip.We also tackle one of the most popular questions right now: can Bitcoin replace gold? Short answer: not for core diversification. Gold’s role as a Basel III Tier 1 reserve asset and its central bank demand make it a unique stabilizer in a way that risk-on assets can’t duplicate. Bitcoin behaves more like a levered tech proxy, which is interesting for satellite bets but insufficient as an anchor. On equities, we explain why splitting the stock sleeve between growth and value—think a broad growth-leaning fund paired with a true value fund like SCHD—creates the performance dispersion that fuels rebalancing gains during stress, raising durability without betting on factor outperformance.If the 30-year rule worries you, breathe. Withdrawal rates flatten as horizons extend, and real-world retiree inflation typically runs 1 to 2 percent below CPI, offsetting the longer timeline. Add simple guardrails—pausing raises, trimming discretionary spend in bad years—and you can boost sustainability by about a percentage point. The key is to know your portfolio’s historical drawdown depth and length, set bright lines for action, and avoid valuation-based fortune-telling. Diversification and disciplined rebalancing beat crystal balls.If you found this helpful, follow the show, leave a review, and share it with a friend planning their FI transition. Your support helps more DIY investors build portfolios designed to last for life.Support the show

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