Industry Insights: Exclusive Interviews

Julie Miecamp, Deputy Global Head of Editorial at Octus, opens the episode by framing the state of European restructuring after 25 years of near-constant reinvention, from post-Lehman scheme innovation to the LME wave now redefining how deals get done. She sits down herself with Kon Asimacopoulos, partner at Sullivan and Cromwell.
Kon walks through the move from Kirkland after nearly two decades (04:30), the origins of the Fitness First and Travelodge CVAs that cracked open landlord restructurings in Europe (27:30), and how the practitioner mix has shifted from insolvency lawyers to debt-native operators (41:40). He shares his read on where LMEs go next, why 90% of his recent hires come from a debt background (54:02), and where the UK restructuring plan actually stands after a bruising couple of years (1:00:55). 
The rapid-fire close lands on Toys R Us, TikTok, and one piece of career advice he ignored.

(00:00) - Introduction from Julie Miecamp

(02:01) - Julie introduces Kon Asimacopoulos

(02:35) - Reflecting on 20 years at Kirkland and Ellis

(09:07) - The move to Sullivan and Cromwell

(19:39) - From Sydney to London and finding restructuring

(27:11) - Fitness First, Travelodge, and the CVA breakthrough

(40:55) - How the European restructuring market has changed

(48:29) - AI, efficiency, and the next generation of lawyers

(53:07) - LMEs, debt literacy, and the new practitioner

(01:00:55) - UK Part 26A, the European toolkit, and advice to juniors

On this episode of Industry Insights, Julie Miecamp sets the scene before Kent Collier, CEO and founder of Octus, sits down with Kieran Goodwin, partner at Saba Capital, and Mark Fischer, director of credit research at Octus. Kent opens on how private credit went from the asset class that didn't break to one investors question daily (00:02:06), and the three start with Kieran's three decades in credit (00:02:48) and how Saba finds its edge (00:05:34).
From there they get into where private credit really stands (00:07:08), from a 2021 vintage already at 10% cumulative defaults to the recovery question Kieran says nobody wants to ask out loud (00:09:11). They cover what the BDCs are disclosing (00:09:42), redemption queues and the asset liability mismatch (00:12:27), the risk of forced sellers in interval funds (00:14:02), dividends that cash income no longer covers (00:16:34) and why discounted BDCs should be buying back their own stock (00:19:46).
The back half turns to software, roughly a third of private credit. They get into portfolio construction and concentration (00:23:36), Kent's hot take that Medallia was always a bad business (00:27:22), how thin workout expertise is across the street (00:30:38) and who actually sells stressed loans at 70 to 90 cents (00:31:38). They close on winners and losers in levered software (00:34:40), whether this is a liquidity crisis or a credit crisis (00:37:24), regulators circling (00:38:02) and why Kent thinks the pain trade is still ahead (00:39:54).
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Hosted by Julie Miecamp
Conversation led by Kent Collier, CEO and founder of Octus
With Kieran Goodwin, partner at Saba Capital, and Mark Fischer, director of credit research at Octus
Produced and edited by Tanya Hubbard
A production of The Octus Podcast Network

(00:00) - Julie Miecamp introduces the episode

(02:06) - Kent Collier sets the private credit stage with Kieran Goodwin and Mark Fischer

(02:48) - Kieran Goodwin on three decades in credit

(05:34) - How Saba finds its edge

(07:08) - The state of private credit and the recovery question

(09:42) - What the BDCs are disclosing

(12:27) - Redemptions, forced sellers and the asset liability mismatch

(16:34) - Dividends, buybacks and BDC consolidation

(23:36) - Portfolio construction and concentration risk

(26:30) - Software, Medallia and the workout question

(31:38) - Who buys the stressed loans

(34:40) - Winners, losers and levered software

(37:24) - Liquidity crisis, regulators and the pain trade ahead

Julie Miecamp, Deputy Global Head of Editorial at Octus, opens the episode by framing the scale of what has quietly become one of the fastest-growing corners of the credit market. In roughly 18 months, high yield and unrated AI infrastructure issuers have raised more than $107 billion, and the top seven players alone may need another $400 billion to $450 billion over the next four years to hit their stated capacity targets. She then hands off to Seth Brumby, Deputy Managing Editor at Octus, who sits down with Anton Gorbounov Senior Credit Analyst on the Octus credit research team.
Brumby and Gorbunov walk through what a data center actually is and why the industry splits into powered shells and neoclouds (03:26), the backstories of the operators, from former crypto miners to an "Airbnb for chips" (08:56). They pressure test the macro and micro risks, including contract economics, counterparty exposure and GPU residual value (11:02), before turning to the widening gap between how equity and credit markets are pricing the same names (15:46). The conversation closes on what to watch next, including the Anthropic and OpenAI S-1s (18:08).
A credit-first read on the sector everyone is watching and few fully understand.
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Hosted by Julie Miecamp
Guest Interviewer: Seth Brumby, Deputy Managing Editor Octus
Guest: Anton Gorbounov, Senior Credit Analyst, Octus
Produced and Edited by Tanya Hubbard
A Production of The Octus Podcast Network

Julie Miecamp, Deputy Global Head of Editorial at Octus, opens the episode by framing a European private credit market bracing for a software reset, a refinancing wall building toward 2028, and a higher-for-longer rate environment that's quietly rewritten the playbook. The real risk, she notes, isn't the one everyone's arguing about. She then hands off to Lucia Camblor, Deputy Head of Private Credit and Deal Origination at Octus, in conversation with Mathew Cestar, President at Arini.
Two decades into building leverage finance at Credit Suisse and advising ICG's leadership, Cestar walks through why Arini exited software lending 18 to 24 months ago, well ahead of the reset now forcing the industry to explain itself (04:19), why the nearer-term threat to tech-heavy portfolios is cost of capital rather than AI disruption (08:49), and why years of pent-up restructuring in private markets are still working their way through the system (14:43). He pushes back on the assumption that scale equals safety in large-cap direct lending (17:10), makes the case for pan-European diversification over single-country concentration (19:04), and closes with why sponsorless lending, ABF, real estate credit, and infrastructure are the next legs of European debanking (27:04).
A conversation with a practitioner who has spent the full cycle inside European credit and isn't interested in the panel version of the story.

Closing Credits
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Hosted by Julie Miecamp.
Guest Interviewer: Lucia Camblor, Deputy Head of Private Credit and Deal Origination, EMEA, Octus.
Guest: Mathew Cestar, President, Arini.
Produced by Tanya Hubbard.
A Production of The Octus Podcast Network

(00:00) - Introduction from Julie Miecamp

(02:33) - Lucia Camblor introduces Mathew Cestar

(03:08) - The state of European private credit after the GFC

(04:19) - Software concentration, the SaaS reset, and why Arini exited early

(08:49) - Rate environment, refinancing wall, and the energy overhang

(14:43) - Default rates, the public-private feedback loop, and pent-up stress

(17:10) - Where the risk sits: lenders versus sponsors

(19:04) - LP rebalancing away from US concentration into Europe

(23:17) - Banks versus private credit as a symbiotic ecosystem

(24:44) - Sponsorless lending and the Lazard partnership

(27:04) - Capital rotation into infrastructure and the debanking theme

(30:33) - Secondaries, continuation funds, and market maturation

(32:06) - Rapid-fire and wrap

Julie Miecamp, Deputy Global Head of Editorial at Octus, opens the episode by framing a CLO market that has changed almost beyond recognition: past $1 trillion in size, more than 160 managers issuing in the US alone, and the economics of CLO equity shifting under everyone's feet (00:06). She then hands off to Sid Punjabi, CLO Reporter at Octus, who caught Vince Pompliano, Managing Director and Co-Head of the US CLO Platform at Benefit Street Partners, at a real milestone: BSP just priced its 50th new issue CLO (02:19). Vince opens with the big picture, arguing the number one lesson of the past decade is that the structure works, with the waterfall, OC tests, and portfolio quality tests doing exactly what they were built to do (02:53). He pushes back on the negative headlines around Iran and the AI software scare, pointing to positive GDP growth, contained inflation, and borrowers still growing revenue and EBITDA (04:03), and lays out his base case for sustained gross issuance into 2026, helped by refis, resets, and short dated paper giving every investor an entry point (05:48). With the field this crowded, Vince argues return dispersion between managers is only going to widen, which makes the name on the deal matter more, not less (06:58), and walks through BSP's philosophy of building lower risk, more conservative portfolios that still deliver median or better equity distributions (07:45). He reflects on CLO 50 and the platform's growth from roughly $5 billion in AUM when he joined in 2014 to more than $30 billion globally today (08:41), before getting into consolidation, why access to capital and performance will separate the winners, and what actually earns a platform tier one status (13:43). The conversation then goes global: Japan's deepening bid and the rise of regional bank capital (17:51), how Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore differ in risk appetite down the stack (19:18), and the untapped mezzanine and equity capital sitting in the Middle East (20:33). Vince gets philosophical on dislocation, explaining why diversification has to be built before volatility shows up, why BSP caps positions at 30 to 50 basis points, and why some of the best CLOs ever done were created in the worst moments (25:05). On the captive equity debate, he resets day one arb expectations around the familiar 12 to 15 percent target and makes the case that captive funds and ETFs are net positives for the market over time (33:21). He closes on reinvestment optionality as the critical driver of equity value (39:25), the role of CLO equity as a cash flowing complement to private equity in a portfolio (41:47), and the career lessons from his trading days, starting with the fact that this is still a relationship business (44:31). In the rapid fire, Sid gets the one misconception Vince would happily kill off, and the answer is three words: we are not CDOs (45:20).
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 Hosted by Julie Miecamp
Guest Interviewer: Sid Punjabi, CLO Reporter, Octus.
Guest: Vince Pompliano, Managing Director and Co-Head of US CLO Business, Benefit Street Partners.
Produced and Final Edited by Tanya Hubbard
A Production of The Octus Podcast Network
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Chapter
00:00:00 Introduction from Julie Miecamp
00:02:19 Sid Punjabi introduces Vince Pompliano
00:02:53 State of the CLO market and why the structure works
00:04:53 Loan market health and 2026 issuance outlook
00:07:53 BSP portfolio philosophy and lower risk construction
00:13:56 Manager differentiation and coming consolidation
00:17:39 Global investor base: Japan, Asia, Middle East
00:24:43 Playing offense during dislocation
00:32:47 CLO equity, captive funds, and resetting arb expectations
00:41:36 The role of CLO equity in a portfolio today
00:44:16 Career lessons and rapid-fire wrap
Closing Credits
FROM BSP - Important Disclosure: This podcast is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product or to adopt any investment strategy. The views and opinions expressed are those of the speakers as of the recording date and are subject to change without notice. Statements regarding market conditions, industry trends, portfolio characteristics, expected returns, economic conditions or future events are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and expectations and are not guarantees of future results. Any references to specific asset classes, investment strategies, securities or transactions are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment recommendations. References to Benefit Street Partners' investment process, portfolio construction, or risk management reflect the team's current approach, which may change over time and may not be successful in all market environments. There can be no assurance that any investment objectives, return expectations, or risk management strategies discussed will be achieved. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.