Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist

• Ep 115: Scott Wu, Devin, and a Trillion-Dollar Opportunity

  Scott Wu took the technology world by storm when he released a demo of Devin, the first AI software engineer. A year later, Devin has gone global, and his company — Cognition AI — is valued at over $4 billion. What are the next leaps for AI coding agents? Could the total economic impact be in the trillions of dollars? And is Scott worried that Devin may someday replace him?Scott's journey to the epicenter of the AI race started in an unlikely place: growing up in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the son of Chinese immigrants. At an early age, he excelled in math and was fast tracked into high school courses [not held back in the name of equity!], culminating in a national Mathcounts championship and three gold medals in competitive programming at the International Olympiad in Informatics. After highschool, he joined Addepar as a top young software engineer before attending Harvard.Scott gathered his smartest friends and many other math, physics and programming champions under one roof to build Cognition, and when they're not architecting new AI breakthroughs, they're quizzing each other with math games. Learn why the top math minds are dominant in AI and what this tells us about the nature of AI progress and where we're headed next. Plus, the first person to solve one of Scott's tough math challenges in this episode gets free swag [leave your answer in the comments or email [email protected]]. Finally, we discuss the future of software engineering and what AI coding agents mean for economic productivity as tasks that once took months to complete now take a weekend with Devin. Is it a trillion dollar opportunity?It's inspiring to see the impact an optimistic, brilliant mind like Scott can have on the world — and he's still a few years shy of his 30th birthday.0:00 Episode intro 1:38 Math prodigy to AI savant 9:43 Origins of Cognition and Devin 11:25 Why are top math minds dominant in AI? 14:40 The next wave of generative AI 18:45 Jagged intelligence & man-machine symbiosis 25:35 Solve Scott's math challenge31:05 Scott's argument for AI optimism 35:10 Trillion-dollar opportunity? 39:10 The future of software engineering 42:10 Optimism for the future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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• Ep 114: Flying Cars Are About to Change the World — Joby CEO JoeBen Bevirt

  JoeBen Bevirt has spent two decades building electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, and now he's on the cusp of commercial approval and rollout. Will flying cars be as transformational as the automobile? How will air taxis impact our cities and the way we live? And how did JoeBen achieve this feat of ingenuity?This week we're joined by the Co-Founder and CEO of Joby Aviation, an American aviation company pioneering eVTOL aircraft for air taxi service. All-electric, virtually silent, and traveling up to 200mph with a pilot and four passengers, Joby is opening new possibilities in the skies above — starting at the price of an Uber Black. The implications for productivity and quality of life are massive, saving the average person an hour or two a day sitting in traffic and unlocking new swaths of land for development.I'm proud that 8VC co-led Joby's first investment round about a decade ago, when many others, even flying enthusiasts, thought it was a pipedream. Since then, Joby has single-handedly shaped an entire new industry, from engineering breakthroughs to regulatory pathways, ensuring that American aviation stays ahead of China. Joby expects its first passenger rides in Dubai within a year and is working closely with the Trump administration as it nears the final stages of FAA approval. Inspired by SpaceX, Joby is vertically integrated and plans to aggressively ramp manufacturing here in the U.S., backed by a $500 million investment from Toyota (bringing Toyota's total investment near $900 million). While we await the first passenger flights, Joby is also building out its infrastructure nationwide — and they're looking for real estate and partners! You can contact JoeBen and the team here: [email protected]:00 Episode Intro 01:38 Flying cars are here 04:00 JoeBen's journey 05:48 Battery progress & hydrogen breakthroughs 08:50 Air taxi for the price of Uber Black 12:35 When will commercial flights start? 20:30 Why Joby is the industry leader 24:20 Why China is copying Joby 28:00 How air taxis will change your life 32:10 How Joby will transform real estate 35:45 Solving intractable problems This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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• Ep 113: Why Sam Lessin Believes AI Isn't Disruptive & Venture Capital Is Fundamentally Changing

  After leading the product team at Facebook, Sam Lessin became one of the top seed investors in Silicon Valley, known for cutting the first check into Venmo and seeding Solana (a 2,000X return!) Why does he think crypto is more disruptive than AI? Why does he believe the VC model is fundamentally shifting? And why are we, together, building a new company focused on taking merit to the extreme in corporate America?We discuss this and more with Sam, co-founder and General Partner of Slow Ventures, a leading early stage venture fund. Prior, he was the VP of Product at Facebook during its hyper growth years. Sam is also heavily involved in fixing Harvard, his alma mater, including a recent campaign for the Board of Overseers and building a new alumni network to help return the university to veritas and its founding principles.Sam first met Mark Zuckerberg at Harvard and watched Facebook being built firsthand. But, as he explains, fell prey to conventional status games and spent two years at Bain & Company, before breaking out and going on to play a critical role at Facebook. He then launched Slow Ventures to take big bets on unconventional ideas. Learn why he believes AI is overhyped; where venture capital is headed next; and what we're building at Meritfirst to unlock hidden talent and overhaul how companies source and hire the best and brightest.00:00 Episode intro 01:50 Harvard & the wrong career choices 05:13 Lessons learned at Facebook 10:15 The challenges of an open internet 14:48 Venmo, Solana & Sam's investment thesis 16:55 Sam's contrarian take on AI 19:15 How venture capital is changing 24:56 How to fix Harvard 34:13 Building Meritfirst together This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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• Ep 112: Peter Thiel on DOGE, Tariffs, Building Generational Companies & the Future of Civilization

  From co-founding PayPal and Palantir to writing the first check into Facebook and investing early in SpaceX, AirBnB, and numerous other unicorns, Peter Thiel has shaped the American technology world for over 25 years. Dozens of our most talented leaders have been inspired by Peter, and as a major influence on how we understand the world, he’s also helped to shape the future of the West. Peter likes exploring clever ideas and wisdom, and loves to win.What's next for our civilization? How should talented people decide what to focus on? And where are the best opportunities amid our myriad challenges? There's no one better than Peter at understanding broken systems, recognizing civilizational currents, and charting a contrarian course. We begin with his mental framework for building in dysfunctional areas, and why Palantir proved more difficult than we ever thought. Peter reveals his worst investments of the past few decades and why broken sectors are often impervious to change. He explains the talent, philosophy, and timing necessary to build a truly generational company.We also cover DOGE, President Trump's trade policy, and why Peter is more optimistic about the new administration in Washington than at any point since President Reagan. We discuss whether the vibe shift in Silicon Valley is real, and Peter's theory for how Meta (where he served on the board for 17 years) was captured by the woke mind virus. Lastly, he explains the precursors for cultural revolutions, i.e., the woke backlash, and why he's uncharacteristically bullish on the DOGE movement and new opportunities for lasting political change.00:00 Episode intro 01:40 UATX vs Harvard 04:45 What should talented people focus on? 07:40 Peter's thesis behind Palantir 11:05 Why Palantir sued the Army 14:30 Optimism vs pessimism 17:10 Peter's worst investment areas 20:30 Peter's perspective on Trump & DOGE 25:45 Trump's trade policy & how to deal with China 30:40 New opportunities in broken areas? 35:10 Los Angeles, Austin, and broken cities 40:25 Is the Silicon Valley vibe shift real? 45:45 Cultural revolutions and why speech codes backfired This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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• Episode 111: Sen. Tom Cotton on DOGE, TikTok, and "Seven Things You Can't Say About China"

  Sen. Tom Cotton is a key leader on Capitol Hill, standing up to cronyism and grift at home and our adversaries abroad. Does he think DOGE can effect lasting change? What can we do about activist judges blocking the new administration? And how do we stop the Chinese Communist Party from infiltrating our government, undermining American innovation, and targeting our kids with synthetic and digital drugs, i.e. fentanyl and TikTok?Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and member of the Armed Services Committee, Sen. Cotton plays a vital role in shaping our nation's foreign policy. He also knows the impact of policy firsthand, having deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan in the U.S. Army after graduating from Harvard and Harvard Law school. His new book sounds the alarm on America's capitulation to the CCP and is appropriately titled "Seven Things You Can't Say About China."As the first elected official to publicly defend the lab leak theory, Sen. Cotton courageously challenged the CCP and our own establishment media, reinforcing his reputation as a bold fighter on issues foreign and domestic. We begin with DOGE and a key legislative mechanism he believes Republicans can use to remove waste, fraud, and abuse in the budget for good. He also explains why the Supreme Court needs to weigh in on activist district judges issuing nationwide injunctions. Next, we dive into his new book and the seven areas of the CCP's malfeasance, including its influence over the Panama Canal, what's going to happen with TikTok, and whether the U.S. is serious about stopping the "reverse opium war" and taking out the Mexican cartels. There are many in Hollywood, academia, corporate America, and even Washington D.C. who downplay or cave to Chinese influence; Sen. Cotton is not one of them!00:00 Episode Intro 03:05 DOGE & activist judges 08:40 Lab leak theory and exposing lies 11:27 Seven Things You Can't Say About China 15:47 Was Pres. Trump right about China and Panama Canal? 20:06 How China infiltrated Hollywood 25:50 What's going to happen with TikTok? 29:36 The CCP's reverse opium war 38:55 Is there optimism for a free China? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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