More or Less

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance?

We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

CONTRIBUTORS:

Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC
David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University
Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University

CREDITS:

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance?

We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

CONTRIBUTORS:

Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC
David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University
Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University

CREDITS:

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports.
The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark.
But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend?
We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain.
If you see any stats that look too good to be true and want us to check them out, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Siobhan Reed, Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: James Beard
Image Credit: Adrian Dennis, Getty Images Sport

Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports.
The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark.
But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend?
We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain.
If you see any stats that look too good to be true and want us to check them out, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Siobhan Reed
Sound Mix: James Beard.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this.
(06:32) A headline in the Independent suggests that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the front line, citing a historian, citing Russian bloggers. Is the number a good one? We take a peek into the murky information ecosystem that surrounds the war in Ukraine.
(15:00) A loyal listener has resent a burning question that - mortifyingly - he first asked us nearly three years ago: why is air travel cheaper than rail travel? We push our guilt deep, deep down then make it worse by challenging the premise of the question.
(21:18) Is every shuffle of a deck of cards an unprecedented event in the history of the universe? It’s a bold claim, but maths YouTuber and comedian Matt Parker has done his homework. We invite him into the studio to make his case - and show off his shuffling skills.
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Luke Sibieta - Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Andrey Vladov - BBC Monitoring
Mark Galeotti - author of Forged in War - A Military History of Russia from its Beginnings to Today
Simon Calder - Travel Correspondent at the Daily Telegraph
Matt Parker - Mathematician, comedian and YouTuber (Stand-up Maths)
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Josh McMinn
Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele, Siobhan Reed
Sound Engineer: James Beard