More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Is the UK uniquely miserly when it comes to the state pension? That’s the story a viral social media post is telling - but have they adjusted to account for complicated structural differences between national systems? Reader, they have not.
(07:23) In a podcast feud nobody saw coming, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tucker Carlson recently locked horns over whether Russia or UK has a larger economy. Who's right? Only one person can possibly adjudicate this one: Duncan Weldon.
(15:06) What effect did this year’s heatwaves have on excess deaths? We analyse the mortality data and explore how, despite thousands of deaths associated with the heat, 2026 is so far setting a record low mortality rate.
(22:35) And finally, in an ‘and finally’ story to end all ‘and finally’ stories, we finally ask how many times the world population can fit into Loch Ness. And Lake Baikal. And, finally, the Caspian Sea.

Guests:
Heidi Karjalainen – Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Stuart McDonald – Partner and Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at consultancy firm Lane Clark & Peacock
Duncan Weldon – Economist and author of ‘Blood and Treasure: The Economics of Conflict from the Vikings to Ukraine’
Dr Keith Still – Director of Crowd Risk Analysis


Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill, Kateryna Pavlyuk
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard
ARCHIVE: The Tucker Carlson Show, YouTube

How much could climate change cost the global economy?
That would be a very useful thing to know, and scientists have developed statistical models that they think can help give a reasonable answer.
These involve finding the patterns in economic data associated with temperature changes - and then applying them to the future changes that are predicted as the globe warms.
In 2024, a scientific paper was published that apparently offered the most accurate projection yet of that potential cost - analysing the impact of temperature on economic activity at a far more granular level than had been attempted before. The paper quickly became highly influential. And then at the end of 2025, it was retracted.
Why? It’s all got something to do with Uzbekistan. Solomon Hsiang, Professor of Global Environmental Policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, explains how he and his team identified the problem.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way.
(07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led by Donkeys?
(11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the channel in small boats in one day. Social media is keen to work out how much this might cost the UK economy. We put the numbers in context and ask Madeleine Sumption from the Migration Observatory about the fiscal impact of asylum seekers.
(21:38) A claim has been buzzing round the internet that bees could hold the secret to long life, but our team is sceptical. We deliver the statistical exposé of Big Honey that the mainstream media’s been too afraid to cover.
Guests:
Liam Sides, Associate Director at Oxford Economics’ Cities and Regions team
Dr Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
Professor Dot Bennett, Professor of Cell Biology at City St. George's, University of London
Dr Ramsay Bowden, Consultant in Clinical Genetics at Cambridge University Hospitals
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Kateryna Pavlyuk
Producer: Nathan Gower
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard

US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil.
100% of the team on More or Less were confused.
What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves of oil in the ground? It’s hard to make any of these stats add up.
To find out whether there was any truth in the claim, we spoke to energy expert Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
If you spot any numbers you think we should take a look at, email us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Researcher: Kateryna Pavlyuk
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles.
(07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history.
(13:51) Is the AI datacentre goldrush threatening to swamp our electricity grid? And what are the consequences for its carbon footprint? We delicately untangle the live wires of this hot potato and give the people what they want: nuanced #GridChat.
(20:38) This is the way the album ends - not with a banger, but with a whimper. Music Substacker Mitchell Stirling has used data to test the decades theory that albums tend to end with a quiet track. Come for the explanation of the physics of vinyl, stay for whatever music we end up being able to use.
Guests:
Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times
Johnny Gowdy - Director at Regen
Mitchell Stirling - Substacker, data nerd, music nerd (Renaissance man)
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard