The End of Fed Control? Bitcoin & Macro Outlook | Checkmate, Joe Carlasare, Matthew Pines
Checkmate is an on-chain analyst and founder of Checkonchain, Joe Carlasare is a Commercial Litigator and macro commentator & Matthew Pines is the Executive Director at the Bitcoin Policy Institute.
They explain why the four-year cycle may finally be dead, how ETFs and institutional flows are reshaping Bitcoin’s volatility, and why 95K has become a critical “Hodler’s Wall.” We get into gold’s resurgence and how central bank accumulation signals a structural shift in global finance, and how fiscal dominance is eroding the Fed’s independence. The roundtable also dives into the politics of debt, the prospect of yield curve control, and the AI-driven capex boom that could both fuel growth and deepen inequality.
In this episode:
- The end of the four-year cycle
- ETFs, flows, and the new volatility profile of Bitcoin
- The Federal Reserve & fiscal dominance
- AI & the future of productivity
THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:
IREN
RIVER
ANCHORWATCH
BLOCKWARE
LEDN
BITKEY
Follow:
Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny
Checkmate: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_
Joe Carlasare: https://x.com/JoeCarlasare
Matthew Pines: https://x.com/matthew_pines
--------
1:41:46
--------
1:41:46
The Fight For Bitcoin’s Future | Samson Mow
Samson Mow is the CEO of JAN3 and former CSO at Blockstream. In this episode, we get into the growing rift between Bitcoin Core and Knots, why mistrust in Core development is at an all-time high, and what it means for the future of the network.
We discuss the battle over spam and data storage on-chain, whether Bitcoin should ossify or adapt, and how governance really works in Bitcoin. Samson breaks down why the UTXO set could become a systemic risk, how mempool fragmentation is reshaping the network, and why multiple implementations of Bitcoin may be both a blessing and a curse.
In this episode:
- The origins of the Core vs. Knots debate
- Spam, filters, and the slippery slope of arbitrary data on Bitcoin
- UTXO bloat, miner incentives, and decentralization risks
- How nation-state adoption may trigger the suddenly moment for Bitcoin
THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:
IREN
RIVER
ANCHORWATCH
BLOCKWARE
LEDN
BITKEY
Follow:
Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny
Samson Mow: https://x.com/Excellion
--------
1:10:33
--------
1:10:33
The Fourth Turning is Here: Bitcoin vs Crisis | Brandon Quittem
Brandon Quittem is a the Author of The Mycelium of Money and VP at Swan. In this episode, we discuss the fourth turning, how history’s generational cycles shape today’s political chaos, and why Bitcoin could be the institution that emerges from the wreckage of a failing system.
We explore the death of monoculture, the erosion of trust in institutions, and whether the coming crisis ends in war, civil unrest, or a re-founding of the American republic. Brandon also breaks down how generational archetypes repeat across history, why social cohesion feels impossible in the algorithmic age, and how Bitcoiners can help reshape the world.
In this episode:
- The Fourth Turning framework and why 2008 was the catalyst
- Loss of faith in institutions and the rise of political nihilism
- Monoculture, social fragmentation, and the crisis of identity
- Why every Fourth Turning ends in war
- How Bitcoin could serve as the foundation for the next era
THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:
IREN
RIVER
ANCHORWATCH
BLOCKWARE
LEDN
BITKEY
Follow:
Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny
Brandon Quittem: https://x.com/bquittem
--------
1:19:47
--------
1:19:47
The Big Print, Inflation & The End Of The Dollar | Lawrence Lepard
Lawrence Lepard is an Investment Manager and Author of The Big Print. In this episode, he explains why the dollar system is “doomed,” how inflation is as much psychological as monetary, and why the Fed and Treasury are now trapped in a cycle of money printing and yield curve control. We explore why America may already be in a “fourth turning,” how gold’s surge signals a repricing of trust, and why Bitcoin is the ultimate escape hatch in a world of policy failure and political decay.
Lepard also explains how U.S. intelligence agencies are using it to study hyperinflation as an existential risk, and why he’s convinced Bitcoin will hit $1 million.
In this episode:
- The Fed and the trap of yield curve control
- The risk of inflation
- Gold’s surge, Bitcoin’s inevitability, and the repricing of trust
- Why America may be entering a “fourth turning”
THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:
IREN
RIVER
ANCHORWATCH
BLOCKWARE
LEDN
BITKEY
Follow:
Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny
Lawrence Lepard: https://x.com/lawrencelepard
The Fed's Third Mandate (TFTC Article): https://www.tftc.io/the-feds-third-mandate-the-looming-credit-crisis-and-bitcoin/
--------
1:18:36
--------
1:18:36
Is Bitcoin Culture Dead? | Pete Rizzo
Pete Rizzo breaks down how Bitcoin’s culture and institutions are being reshaped in 2025. From Trump’s executive orders and the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve to the rise of treasury companies and institutional adoption, we explore why this cycle feels different — and why that may not be entirely bullish for freedom money.
We get into the shifting monocultures of Bitcoin, from grassroots self-custody to Saylor's vision. Rizzo explains why treasury companies must prove they can outperform Bitcoin itself and the risks if hundreds of them collapse in the next bear market.
In this episode:
- How institutions are changing Bitcoin adoption
- Trump, strategic reserves & Bitcoin policy
- The cultural shift in Bitcoin
- Why treasury companies may struggle to survive
- The next phase of Bitcoin culture
THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:
IREN
RIVER
ANCHORWATCH
BLOCKWARE
LEDN
BITKEY
Follow:
Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny
Pete Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_
Portugal