Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

• Bitcoin Cycles Are Breaking: The Fed’s “Not-QE” QE + Institutional Floor at $90k?

  Bitcoin chops around ~$90k after a brief move toward ~$94k, highlighting a “flat net” year vs late-2024 levelsBrady revisits a long-running thesis: institutions, corporates, and nation-states may be dampening the classic four-year boom/bust cycleMatthew Sigel (via Bernstein) is cited arguing for an elongated cycle, limited ETF outflows during a ~30% correction, and higher long-range price targetsThe show contrasts Bitcoin and gold narratives, using a long-cycle framework to discuss “debasement trade” environments and why hard assets can rotate vs equitiesThe Fed’s latest moves are framed as balance-sheet expansion via “reserve management purchases” of T-bills—QE-by-another-name and “money printing,” even if not labeled QEA Supreme Court case is discussed regarding presidential removal authority of federal officials, and why the Fed is viewed as a politically sensitive “special case”Michael Saylor posts a cryptic “guess the bank” photo (identified by viewers as JPMorgan HQ), fueling speculation about warming big-bank relationshipsBitGo receives conditional OCC approval to convert to a national trust bank, emphasizing 100% reserves and nationwide digital-asset custody authorityDo Kwon is sentenced (15 years) for the Terra/Luna collapse; the hosts discuss “orange-washing” and how Bitcoin branding can be used to legitimize scamsSatoshi’s final public post anniversary is noted as a core “feature” of Bitcoin—no founder, no leader, no centralized rule-changes—followed by a Swan product and services overview Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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• Why Smart Money Isn’t Afraid of This Bitcoin Crash with Cory Klippsten

  Contrast between today’s macro backdrop and the 2021 Bitcoin peak, with tighter liquidity, higher rates, and far stronger structural support for BitcoinCory’s base case: no classic 80% “crypto winter” drawdowns anymore and a strong chance of new all-time highs in 2026John’s “yearly lows” chart framing: rising annual Bitcoin floors as proof of real accumulation and diminishing panic sellingLarry Fink, Harvard, sovereign wealth funds, and major banks (BofA, Vanguard, Schwab, Citi) as long-term Bitcoin buyers, not momentum touristsDiscussion of CFTC-approved spot Bitcoin trading on designated contract markets as another on-ramp for pensions and endowmentsBig critique of prediction markets and “scambling” (scam + gambling) as an extractive, nihilistic, fiat-era attempt to financialize everythingCory and John argue that crypto casinos, meme coins, and prediction markets are a giant gambling funnel that ultimately pushes people toward Bitcoin’s seriousnessBitcoin and energy: riffing on Elon Musk and Jensen Huang’s comments about Bitcoin turning stranded or excess energy into a universal monetary batteryMicroStrategy’s new USD reserve is framed as a cosmetics move to soothe institutions and make their Stretch preferreds more attractive, not a change in core strategyCory pushes back on “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” de-banking narratives, distinguishing between true systemic exclusion and individual risky accounts being dropped Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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• Jeff Booth: Bitcoin, Abundance & Escaping the Fiat Control System

  Jeff Booth explains why Bitcoin is the foundation for the world’s first true free market—one that naturally trends toward deflation and abundanceArgues that existing fiat systems must inflate due to debt dynamics, guaranteeing increasing centralization, surveillance, and coercionDissects Elon Musk’s claim that money will become irrelevant—agreeing only if humanity transitions to a Bitcoin-based system with privacy layersShows why AI and robotics accelerate deflation in a free market, but cause chaos and inequality inside fiat systemsBreaks down why housing, healthcare, and education prices rise despite technological efficiency: money printing, not real scarcityHelps new Bitcoiners understand price volatility and why they must build conviction through deep study—don’t just “trust”Explains Bitcoin’s resilience and the importance of decentralization, self-custody, nodes, and privacy technologies like Fedimint and CashuHighlights El Salvador as a real-world example of choosing a Bitcoin-based free-market pathDiscusses long-term security concerns (quantum, government attacks) and why open protocols evolve faster than threatsReframes Bitcoin as a civilizational protocol upgrade, not a trade—and encourages ignoring fiat pricing entirely Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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• Bitcoin Amsterdam, Fiscal Dominance, Stimulus Talk, and the Massive Square Adoption Milestone

  Brady joins from Bitcoin Amsterdam and reports extremely positive conference sentiment despite Bitcoin’s price consolidating around $95–105KHosts discuss how price often disconnects from fundamentals and why Bitcoin’s thesis remains intactReview of historical “conference dumps” showing that IRL Bitcoin community morale stays strong even during drawdownsDeep dive on inflation, the disappearance of the U.S. penny, and long-term fiat degradation compared to BitcoinMacro breakdown: surging U.S. interest expense now surpasses defense spending; government shutdown ends; TGA likely to release liquidityDiscussion of proposed stimulus checks, 50-year mortgages, and portable/assumable mortgages as evidence policymakers won’t tolerate asset price deflationCzech National Bank allocates $1M to Bitcoin—first known central bank to do soU.S. regulatory update: Senate draft of the Clarity Act includes explicit protections for self-custody and P2P Bitcoin transactionsSoFi becomes the first national bank to offer Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana purchases directly inside its banking appMajor adoption milestone: Square enables Bitcoin/Lightning payments at 4 million merchants with optional Bitcoin settlementMarket note: Michael Burry closes his fund, citing inability to understand today’s market—hosts contrast this with Bitcoin’s clear macro trajectory Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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• Bitcoin Crash or Bull Run Setup? with Lyn Alden

  Lyn Alden returns to discuss Bitcoin’s current cycle, macro conditions, and her new sci-fi novelPanel examines a ~25% pullback and whether it’s a pause or a new bear marketLyn argues halvings now matter less; macro and liquidity dominate price actionJohn notes 2025 doesn’t resemble 2021’s top across inflation, M2, deficits, and Fed postureBitcoin behaves more like a large-cap asset with institutional rebalancing muting extremesLyn sees mild recession risk amid fiscal dominance and a two-speed economy, with reacceleration in 2026–27TGA fill and recent repo stress cited as short-term drags on Bitcoin liquidity“OG” distribution framed as an IPO-like rotation to broader holdersTreasury company update: Strive’s 12% SATA preferred and MicroStrategy’s new issuance, with scale advantages likely to concentrate winnersDebate on France’s proposed 1% unrealized wealth tax and why Bitcoin is productive monetary savings, not luxury wealth Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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