Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

• Farewell to Steven + Bitcoin Hits the Mortgage Market

  In this special episode of Swan Signal Live, the team bids a heartfelt farewell to longtime host Steven Lubka as he steps away from his regular role. Steven reflects on nearly five transformative years at Swan, building Swan Private and helping onboard thousands of high-net-worth individuals into Bitcoin. Emotions run high as the crew reminisces on shared experiences and growth.The discussion then dives into major Bitcoin developments:Bitcoin in Mortgages: The FHFA is reportedly guiding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to recognize Bitcoin as an asset in mortgage underwriting — a shift that could help Bitcoiners qualify more easily without having to sell their holdings.Texas Bitcoin Treasury: Texas becomes the first U.S. state to establish a Bitcoin reserve, allocating $10M in a move widely seen as symbolic but historic.Bitcoin Treasury Companies: The hosts dissect the growing trend of public companies accumulating Bitcoin on their balance sheets, discussing the implications for decentralization, nationalization risks, regulatory arbitrage, and Bitcoin’s long-term monetization.ECB’s Capital Control Signals: A concerning ECB statement hints at encouraging — or even mandating — retail savings be redirected into government-prioritized capital markets.Institutional Adoption: Billionaire hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont’s recent CNBC confession that he regrets not buying Bitcoin sparks a broader conversation about how major allocators are waking up late — but surely — to Bitcoin’s potential.Notable Quote:“This is what it looks like when the world really wakes up to Bitcoin” — Steven Lubka Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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  1:03:12
• Bitcoin Over $100K for 43 Days & TradFi is Finally Noticing

  Bitcoin continues its historic streak—43 consecutive days closing above $100,000. The Swan Signal crew dives into what this milestone means, including comparisons to Joe DiMaggio’s legendary hitting streak and the waning attention from normies, despite Bitcoin reaching all-time highs.Steven shares insight on why emerging markets and Bitcoin have outperformed, citing Lynn Alden’s early calls. Meanwhile, John highlights how the broader TradFi world is just starting to wake up to Bitcoin’s disruptive potential—despite cringe moments like Brian Armstrong pitching Bitcoin as a “new” idea or Wall Street macro types clumsily suggesting gold/oil-backed stablecoins from geopolitical rivals.Other key points:Bitcoin treasury plays are seeing early-stage momentum, with large speculative capital still sitting on the sidelines.The Genius Act, recently passed, lays the regulatory groundwork for stablecoins—some say this could bolster dollar dominance while indirectly boosting Bitcoin.Stablecoin growth is explained as a stepping stone to Bitcoin, not a competitor.Discussion on whether the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle is dead, with some leaning toward a slower, more mature “Saylor Cycle” structure.Notable Quotes:“Listen to Bitcoiners. If you just get your 40 hours per week in, you’ll know the answer to all questions in life.”“There’s boredom above $100K… and retail is nowhere to be found.” Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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  49:38
• Nothing Stops This Train

  Trump–Elon “Breakup”: The show kicks off with the high-profile political and cultural split between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The hosts speculate whether the split was coordinated to help Elon politically, and explore what it says about naive techno-optimism in politics versus the hard constraints of monetary and fiscal reality.“Nothing Stops This Train” Theme: Echoing Lynn Alden and Luke Gromen, the crew reaffirms that the U.S. fiscal path is locked into deficit and debt expansion. Cutting entitlements or defense is politically impossible, and the only off-ramp might be a miraculous AI-driven productivity boom—which is unlikely to come fast enough.Bitcoin as the Hedge: Elon’s blind spot may be failing to recognize that broken money, not governance inefficiency, is the core problem. The team discusses how Bitcoin fits as the solution—an asset to protect against monetary debasement and fiscal irresponsibility.Bitcoin Treasury Companies: A major segment explores the rise of corporate entities accumulating Bitcoin via debt and equity markets. The panel rebuts concerns that this resembles the ICO mania of 2017, arguing that debt levels are low, strategies are sound, and this trend is still early.AI and The Fourth Turning: Brady and the team expand on the societal impact of rapid technological change, combining AI, institutional decline, and Bitcoin adoption into a transformative fourth turning moment.Swan Private and Client Stories: They wrap with a heartfelt story about helping a client stay convicted during the FTX collapse, illustrating Swan Private’s mission of hands-on, relationship-driven Bitcoin education and wealth preservation. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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  1:02:53
• Bitcoin Hits All-time Highs and the Fiat System Cracks

  Swan Signal Live – Episode Recap (May 17, 2025)Title: “All-Time High Week: Bitcoin Blasts to $111K, LBE Stocks Surge, and the Debt Train Rolls On”Guests: Brady Swenson, Alex Stanczyk, Steven Lubka, John Haar (Swan Private)🚀 Bitcoin Hits $111K – “We Are So Back”After a five-month wait since January, Bitcoin breaks through to a new all-time high of $111K.Optimism surges among the Swan Private team as they reflect on the market momentum and macro backdrop.Traditional markets remain volatile amid tariffs and economic uncertainty, but Bitcoin shines.💼 Meta Planet & The LBE Stock CrazeMeta Planet stock surges over 100% in a day, only to drop ~50% the next.Discussion focuses on the new trend of Leveraged Bitcoin Equity (LBE) stocks:High volatilitySmall floatPotential for massive upside—but also high riskAdvice: Stick with Bitcoin as your core holding; allocate cautiously to LBE stocks if desired, and buy-and-hold long term is still the best strategy.🧠 BTC in DC & The Importance of Policy EngagementUpdate on BTC in DC—Swan is working with George Washington Institute to host a unique policy-focused Bitcoin conference in D.C.Emphasis on realpolitik: “You can hate politics, but policy will impact Bitcoin adoption.”Bitcoin values (sovereignty, decentralization) must be reconciled with pragmatic policymaking to enable mass adoption.📊 Institutional Capital Flows into BitcoinUTXO Management + Bitwise estimate $425 billion in institutional Bitcoin inflows by end of 2026.Segments include public companies, wealth management platforms, sovereign wealth funds, and U.S. states.Public companies like MicroStrategy and Meta Planet leading the charge; next phase could include giants like SoftBank, Strive, and Tether.🏛 U.S. Debt: “Nothing Stops This Train”Moody’s downgrades U.S. debt as deficits grow.Discussion of the “Nothing Stops This Train” meme popularized by Lynn Alden and Luke Gromen.Takeaway: No administration can or will stop the debt spiral.Both parties share blame.Spending is up across the board.Austerity is politically impossible.Elon's recent capitulation tweet: “Radical productivity is the only way out.”💸 M2 Money Supply & Bitcoin CorrelationGlobal M2 money supply continues to rise—historically predictive of Bitcoin price surges.Bitcoin lagged slightly behind M2 but now appears to be tracking it upward again.Macro picture: Expansionary policy = bullish for Bitcoin.🏛 Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)Texas passes SB 21, establishing the first major U.S. state Bitcoin reserve.Allows the Texas comptroller to buy and manage Bitcoin—a milestone in public Bitcoin adoption.Only assets with $500B+ market cap qualify—i.e., Bitcoin only.🍕 Bitcoin Pizza Day & The Spend/Save DebateCelebrating Laszlo Hanyecz’s historic 10,000 BTC pizza purchase—the first real-world BTC transaction.Debate sparked by Saylor’s tweet that MicroStrategy used USD to buy their Pizza Day pies.Hosts argue in favor of spending and replacing Bitcoin:Drives real-world adoptionSignals demandReinforces Bitcoin’s use case as money🪙 Bitcoin vs Gold ETFsBitcoin ETFs crushing gold ETFs in inflows year-over-year.Despite institutional barriers and late adoption, Bitcoin has seen ~$40B+ inflows vs gold’s ~$1B in year one.Huge signal of growing demand and conviction.🏦 JP Morgan CapitulatesJamie Dimon reverses course: JP Morgan will now allow clients to buy Bitcoin.After years of criticizing BTC, Dimon’s reversal is yet another mainstream surrender to Bitcoin’s inevitability.🔔 Call to Action🔗 Join Swan Private – Work with experts like Alex, John, and Steven to build generational Bitcoin wealth.🎤 BTC in DC – Attend the fall policy summit at the Kennedy Center to help shape Bitcoin’s future in public policy.🎧 Catch Swan Signal Live every Friday at 11 AM PT / 2 PM ET – or subscribe on your favorite podcast app.“Colonizing Mars is easier than stopping the debt train. Buy Bitcoin.” Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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  57:02
• $500K Bitcoin Predictions & Institutional Game Theory

  1. 500K Bitcoin Predictions & Market SentimentThe crew discussed the recent wave of bullish sentiment led by industry voices like Adam Back, Bitfinex analysts, and Vibes Capital. Adam Back predicts $500K–$1M this cycle, while Vibes Capital cites $100B in anticipated corporate treasury demand plus potential U.S. government Bitcoin buys. With consistent ETF inflows, particularly BlackRock’s IBIT, and support levels holding near $100K, sentiment is peaking.2. Treasury Demand & Speculative Attack NarrativeMicroStrategy’s playbook is now being followed by a growing list of public firms using debt and equity to acquire Bitcoin. The panel emphasized this as a "speculative attack" on fiat—unlocking Bitcoin exposure for capital pools that can't hold spot BTC directly. With more than 500,000 BTC already under corporate control, the race is on.3. Coinbase Hack: $400M FalloutA major hack at Coinbase leaked sensitive customer data (names, addresses, partial SSNs, balances, and IDs). While no private keys were exposed, the breach raised concerns about platform risk. The team praised Coinbase's $20M bounty offer but reiterated the importance of security hygiene and moving to self-custody solutions like Swan Vault.4. Digital Scarcity & FT FiascoFinancial Times drew ire for downplaying Bitcoin's innovation, comparing it to teeth. The panel explained how Bitcoin solved digital scarcity using proof-of-work and decentralized consensus. Lynn Alden’s and Pierre Rochard’s responses underscored the persistent misunderstanding from legacy media.5. Macroeconomics & Treasury PolicyThe group reviewed new U.S. spending legislation further widening deficits—echoing the "Nothing Stops This Train" meme. Tariff-driven inflation, CPI surprises, and Walmart’s price hikes were also covered, with mixed views on future inflation trajectories.6. Global Adoption & Corporate MomentumRecent sovereign and institutional moves included Chinese and Indian firms acquiring BTC, 21.co’s big buy, and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund adding exposure. Meanwhile, Swan's own CIO Ben Workman emphasized the moral and fiduciary pressure mounting on corporate leaders to explore Bitcoin treasuries. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

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  51:14

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